mdsnowlover Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Hmmm.... JB is hinting at a wild end game for March. But he isn't diving in...... yet. Sounds like someone is is trying to get one more month of subscriptions from us weenies. youre still following him, i gave up lol!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 29 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Over night runs were uninspiring to say the least. And now you can throw in the 06Z GFS as well. Yea I see nothing in the next 2 weeks. The only interesting thing is how all the guidance is building a very impressive epo ridge towards day 15 and gave a lot of cold ready to dump in. I could see a cold period in march from that. But everything this year has been transient so I doubt it's a long window. The potential spoiler is the epo doesn't have as strong a cold signal in march as January/February probably because the shorter wavelengths open the risk the trough is sharp enough that ridging fights back along the east coast. We could see everything cut to our west. It can work 2014-15 proves that but it can fail too. There are definitely some underlying factors to the pattern that continue to override favorable signals. In December we wasted a -epo mid month. In January we torched right through a fairly healthy mjo phase 1. We just wasted a -nao and we're about to torch through most of one of the most impressive mjo waves through cold phases. At times we have had positive factors lined up but some combination of other influences is saying NO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 26 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Hmmm.... JB is hinting at a wild end game for March. But he isn't diving in...... yet. Sounds like someone is is trying to get one more month of subscriptions from us suckers... errrr... I mean weenies. The man has no integrity left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 One word JB should seriously consider...RETIREMENT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The man has no integrity left. Remember him from the accuweather days when he wasn't quite so into the hype as he is now. Actually enjoyed reading him back then. He's actually pretty savvy with his weather knowledge and you can learn a thing or two. The problem is that you need to be knowledgeable enough to understand when he is just throwing out BS or whether there is a legitimate threat. And to be honest, I got tired years ago of trying to weed through all the hype just to get a nugget or two of weather knowledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: Remember him from the accuweather days when he wasn't quite so into the hype as he is now. Actually enjoyed reading him back then. He's actually pretty savvy with his weather knowledge and you can learn a thing or two. The problem is that you need to be knowledgeable enough to understand when he is just throwing out BS or whether there is a legitimate threat. And to be honest, I got tired years ago of trying to weed through all the hype just to get a nugget or two of weather knowledge. Very good description of the good and bad with JB. I will give him some credit that back in the early 2000s before he went off the rails I learned a lot. He can definitely pull out some nuggets about telleconection and long range tricks. And you can learn some things from him. Problem is he has become like Fox News. Sure there is some real news in there but it's also littered with utter nonsense and unless your knowledgeable enough to discern the difference he can cause more harm then good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Very good description of the good and bad with JB. I will give him some credit that back in the early 2000s before he went off the rails I learned a lot. He can definitely pull out some nuggets about telleconection and long range tricks. And you can learn some things from him. Problem is he has become like Fox ANY News. Sure there is some real news in there but it's also littered with utter nonsense and unless your knowledgeable enough to discern the difference he can cause more harm then good. Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 I really liked the younger JB. He has become bitter and heavily biased in his rants. I payed for him at Accu, but never at WB. He is a wealth of knowledge and can sniff out a long range pattern better than many. But I've largely moved on, as there became to much parsing for weather morsels. Back to the weather...... there aint none to talk about....for at least a week. Someone wake me up next Friday and well see whats cookin by then. May still be the entire lower 48. Ugh Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 7 hours ago, yoda said: 00z GGEM trying a lil something something Day 10? 1038 H in Quebec and 1004mb SLP in NE GA 00z EURO at 240 has ridging building just west of Alaska (+PNA?) with no large GOA low and what I believe is to be an eastern trough developing Extrapolating 00z GGEM (I know), there could be something there. 00z GEPS seems to agree. It's not much, but I think this might be the best look the GEPS has had for a while. Of course it will probably be gone in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 What an odd way to get snow on the 240hr GFS....wacky evolution there lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 The 12z GFS tries to extrapolate the 00z GGEM for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 Just now, BaltimoreWxGuy said: What an odd way to get snow on the 240hr GFS....wacky evolution there lol Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks like the trough goes from being negative to positive. Is that common? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16, 2017 Author Share Posted February 16, 2017 That's the one folks! Only 10 days out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 1 minute ago, cae said: Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks like the trough goes from being negative to positive. Is that common? The entire evolution is wacky, Im not putting much thought into that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 Just now, cae said: Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks like the trough goes from being negative to positive. Is that common? I think they do open up at some point. I suppose a trough can't stay negative forever. Somebody else might chime in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 1 hour ago, cae said: Extrapolating 00z GGEM (I know), there could be something there. 00z GEPS seems to agree. It's not much, but I think this might be the best look the GEPS has had for a while. Of course it will probably be gone in a few hours. i sure hope so. We need something positive to hold us over till next year. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 8 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: The entire evolution is wacky, Im not putting much thought into that. It looks like a stronger first wave might prevent the second low from cutting. Fujiwhara effect? GGEM had something similar last night, but now it has the weaker first wave today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 1 minute ago, cae said: It looks like a stronger first wave might prevent the second low from cutting. Fujiwhara effect? GGEM had something similar last night, but it's back to having a weaker first wave today. Yeah, Im just not buying it. One of them will probably end up being a dominant low, my bet would be on the strong s/w out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 I'm not commenting on the chances of the GFS being right, but it looks like one of those typical spring-time events when vorts get cut off and start dancing around. P.S. I know the vort is not cut off, but you get odds scenarios in the spring with vorts cutting off and banging into each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 one thing is clear the day 9-10 period is trending colder with every run of the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 Just now, kurtstack said: one thing is clear the day 9-10 period is trending colder with every run of the models Not the Euro..we will see what it does at 12z but its still warm for next weekend on the 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 The NAEFS from 00 UT shows a lot of different ways to get rain during the mild February 23 to 26th period; however, it is dry as a bone during the seasonal period that follows. Hopefully, that changes with the 12 UT suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 24 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: What an odd way to get snow on the 240hr GFS....wacky evolution there lol It will be a NE bomb.. you just watch and see! =( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 1 hour ago, kurtstack said: one thing is clear the day 9-10 period is trending colder with every run of the models At some point doesn't it have to become something other than the day 9-10 period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 Any thoughts on the day 10 euro? Other than it's day 10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Any thoughts on the day 10 euro? Other than it's day 10? I see a low tracking to the western GL, some warm sector rain ahead of it, and a trailing cold front. eta- there is a low that forms way off the coast that looks like it may end up giving snow to NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: I see a low tracking to the western GL, some warm sector rain ahead of it, and a trailing cold front. I see a cold front that has already passed, flat flow and cold 850's behind it, and a low in the Texas panhandle getting ready to come east. You see no possibilities there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I see a cold front that has already passed, flat flow and cold 850's behind it, and a low in the Texas panhandle getting ready to come east. You see no possibilities there? Beyond day 10, with colder air in place, if something should develop in that area and move east, I suppose there would be possibilities. There is a very weak "L" in N Texas but no precip at day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Beyond day 10, with colder air in place, if something should develop in that area and move east, I suppose there would be possibilities. There is a very weak "L" in N Texas but no precip at day 10. Vort panels look good but d10 op vort panels have panned out exactly zero times this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Vort panels look good but d10 op vort panels have panned out exactly zero times this winter. Yeah I have no energy to analyze anything at 10 day anymore lol. I glanced at the surface and had no interest in doing anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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