Amped Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 You know winter sucks when people are analyzing the Gfs 384 when it doesn't even show a hecs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 2 hours ago, kurtstack said: Not sure how many 6-10" events we have actually seen over the last three years but that three year period in general was anomolous. We had a very good run. My point was that the higher elevations really do distance themselves from the lowlands in terms of march snow averages. Elevation becomes much more important given the march climo. Could we score, sure it isnt out of the realm of possibilities ut i would feel much better if i was sitting above 1,000 feet of elevation for the projected pattern. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk There might be something to this. But the reality is that this can be said for all of the winter months. Areas with elevation generally have better odds of seeing snow. I have seen March storms where it snows on the coastal plain and its rain or a rain/snow mix inland at higher elevations because the precip is lighter. As we move towards spring, rates/dynamical cooling come more into play with marginal air-masses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 EPS sucks in the snow dept but there is a trough over japan d15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: EPS sucks in the snow dept but there is a trough over japan d15. Transient. ....sorry, but thanks for playing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 1 hour ago, Amped said: You know winter sucks when people are analyzing the Gfs 384 when it doesn't even show a hecs. 12 words is analysis? My, how twitter has changed the way some view the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 30 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Transient. ....sorry, but thanks for playing. A long term trough in Japan would likely place a ridge behind it which helps push cold onto our side of the hemisphere but we know it's way too late for all that nonsense. We're looking for a one hit wonder fluke at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: A long term trough in Japan would likely place a ridge behind it which helps push cold onto our side of the hemisphere but we know it's way too late for all that nonsense. We're looking for a one hit wonder fluke at this point. I thought we were just bustin' chops! I don't even have the 15 day euro ensembles. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I thought we were just bustin' chops! I don't even have the 15 day euro ensembles. Lol I figured you'd chuckle at the post. Lol The trough is real but unfortunately our winter isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 EPS sucks in the snow dept but there is a trough over japan d15. Is the pattern workable at least? Or only in tokyo?Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 Just now, Ji said: Is the pattern workable at least? Or only in tokyo? Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk If you just look at h5 d10-15 you would think it is indeed half decent. But when you dig deeper there is nothing promising. Earlier this winter I would have thought its just a disconnect and things look ok. But now I think it's just more of the same ole same ole livin in a snow hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Is the pattern workable at least? Or only in tokyo? Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk workable patterns = 98% fail this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 42 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 12 words is analysis? My, how twitter has changed the way some view the world. That look on the 384 would never get 12 words in a good winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 15 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I thought we were just bustin' chops! I don't even have the 15 day euro ensembles. Lol I was just trying to keep character. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If you just look at h5 d10-15 you would think it is indeed half decent. But when you dig deeper there is nothing promising. Earlier this winter I would have thought its just a disconnect and things look ok. But now I think it's just more of the same ole same ole livin in a snow hole. Yea that disconnect has been there all winter. The h5 for some decent stretches wasn't as bad as the ground truth. Oh well. I can see a way we get a major dump of cold into the conus in march given the way the pattern seems to be evolving Day 10-15. It could just as easily end up aimed west if us though. But I certainly wouldn't be shocked if we get some too little too late event in march. Up here I've had accumulating snow the last 4 years in march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 Japan trough making it happen. I'd start a thread but probably best to wait 12 days first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 down here we average 3" in march lol. BTW happy hour did not dissappoint! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Japan trough making it happen. I'd start a thread but probably best to wait 12 days first. Thats no fun. Why not weenie out and act like that's a 24 hour prog not 384 ill complain about being fringed and you all can freak out about soil temps and sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Japan trough making it happen. I'd start a thread but probably best to wait 12 days first. Hey, I said the 12z at 384hrs looked interesting, and the 18z at 384 hrs is money. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Our region is wayyy overdue for a March paste bomb - translation ( HECS). Just a matter of time. Drip, drip, drip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 35 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Hey, I said the 12z at 384hrs looked interesting, and the 18z at 384 hrs is money. Lol Jeez a 1017 Low...that's basically a weak high pressure. We're back baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 If that epo ridge goes nuts like some recent runs of the EPS and gefs it's not going to stay warm. We might as well root for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 We're due for an April snowstorm. Can't believe the temps coming up. Sums up this Winter. Astonishing duration of mild weather. Complete opposite of 2013/14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 March 93, followed by March 58, followed by March 42. Lets get it rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: If that epo ridge goes nuts like some recent runs of the EPS and gefs it's not going to stay warm. We might as well root for something. Even with the gfs jumping it does look like some late feb/early Mar cold is on tap. Maybe after all the fails this year something accidentally takes advantage. We'll know more in a week but it does seem possible to have a cold first week or 2 of march. Would be kinda fitting to finally have something break right after 3 torcherous months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 51 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 62' 93' 58' Cap it off with 42' We won't see another March 93 in our lifetime. Perhaps a mega snow, but not a storm that puts snow on the ground from the Florida panhandle to Maine in mid March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motsco Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 51 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Even with the gfs jumping it does look like some late feb/early Mar cold is on tap. Maybe after all the fails this year something accidentally takes advantage. We'll know more in a week but it does seem possible to have a cold first week or 2 of march. Would be kinda fitting to finally have something break right after 3 torcherous months. a little leveling off from normal temps. then back to minimum above avg. temps. . nothing to see here, move along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 00z GGEM trying a lil something something Day 10? 1038 H in Quebec and 1004mb SLP in NE GA 00z EURO at 240 has ridging building just west of Alaska (+PNA?) with no large GOA low and what I believe is to be an eastern trough developing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 4 hours ago, yoda said: 00z GGEM trying a lil something something Day 10? 1038 H in Quebec and 1004mb SLP in NE GA 00z EURO at 240 has ridging building just west of Alaska (+PNA?) with no large GOA low and what I believe is to be an eastern trough developing Largely, it looks like more SLPs going to Detroit and Montreal. Maybe December 5?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 Over night runs were uninspiring to say the least. And now you can throw in the 06Z GFS as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 Hmmm.... JB is hinting at a wild end game for March. But he isn't diving in...... yet. Sounds like someone is is trying to get one more month of subscriptions from us suckers... errrr... I mean weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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