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February Medium/Long Range Disco Thread 2

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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BTRWx

BTRWx

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say we aren't getting an 8-12" event.

I hope you guys can troll the hell out of this post.

I'll go out on a limb and say it might not be as tough for some of you to get that next month.

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cbmclean

cbmclean

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

friend linked me a post and i went to see "WTH" and he mostly was whining about how he nailed the pattern but the planet is just too warm and so the surface didnt respond and other such nonsense.  Amazing how someone so against the argument of human caused global warming has no problem blaming global warming for his busted forecast lol. 

I will say this though, he isnt wrong about the whole northern hemisphere torching thing.  I've commented a couple times over the past 2 years that its disturbing that even with a pretty good "workable" h5 pattern the surface response with cold is pathetic because there just isnt much cold anywhere.  I am not sure what to say about that.  Obviously coming off a super nino some of that is expected, but before we even recover from that it looks like were headed right back into another nino.  In the micro sense that nino could help us as if we get tropical forcing in the right place it could offset the overall warming for our location specifically, plus no one in here is going to care if we end the winter +1.5 temps but with several big snowstorms and 40"+ region wide.  But in the longer term macro sense what that could imply for our chances year to year to sustain cold and snow is troublesome if we really are entering a new normal anything like what we have seen the last 2 years.  It's hard enough to get cold here without 75% of the northern hemisphere being above average at any given time.  That just stacks the odds even more against us.  I am still thinking this is mostly just a short term trend and not a new long term normal but lets hope that is true. 

I was under the impression that the eastern half of the NH was doing ok this winter in terms of Cold, at least from Central Europe on East.  It seems several sources have mentioned that one of our dooms is that all of the cold air was locked up over the eastern hemisphere, so it didn''t matter what the pattern was; no cold for us.

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Redmorninglight

Redmorninglight

Posted
Posted

Since this winter is a major ratter anyway, we would have been better off with a strong Nina that would have kept our expectations low and allowed the planet to cool. Then we could have come back with a weak to moderate Nino later this year and score on a better long wave pattern. I suspect we are flatlining temps when we should be cooling then warming when we should be warming. Steps upward instead of an S curve. 

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted

After fighting with Weatherbell once again to get pages to download what little I did see was somewhat encouraging with the improvements in the looks with the longer range. Whether we see continued improvements over subsequent runs is another story though.

Think next year I will have to reconsider whether I want to spend $25/month for Weatherbell. The service has been horrible this winter with pages not downloading and/or downloading at a snails pace. Anyone have suggestions for a service that has decent Euro output that doesn't cost an arm and a leg?

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

After fighting with Weatherbell once again to get pages to download what little I did see was somewhat encouraging with the improvements in the looks with the longer range. Whether we see continued improvements over subsequent runs is another story though.

Think next year I will have to reconsider whether I want to spend $25/month for Weatherbell. The service has been horrible this winter with pages not downloading and/or downloading at a snails pace. Anyone have suggestions for a service that has decent Euro output that doesn't cost an arm and a leg?

I don't think wxbell has been that awful. They do sometimes have a product that has loading issues but I've found that's true of all these websites that offer such products. Stormvista is the only other place that offers the same wide range of guidance. However the graphics aren't even close to the same quality. On the plus their products come out 10-15 minutes faster sometimes.  On the negative if you want the weeklies and ensembles and analogs it costs an arm and a leg.  That stuff is on their premium package only. Honestly wxbell is probably the best affordable source for this stuff. I think what jb does is pretty dispicable so I wouldn't give them my money if I found a comperable service. When or if I do trust me I'll blast it out on here. Hopefully if someone else does they do the same. 

Only thing that used to bug me not having access too was the EPS analogs. But lately I realized Ive been doing this long enough I can look at a prog abc predict what the analogs are going to show every time. I know what a good look is. When I see a weenie run of the gfs I'll know "the analogs are gonna be littered with ku storms" and they are.  It would be nice to see them but I'm not spending a ton of money for it. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, Ji said:

the storm the 24th and 25th has such a good track and could of been a big one. Where the hell is the cold air?

Locked up in Canada because the storms is cut off under the ridge. But your assuming that track and those temps are right. One or both could be an error. Temps aren't that far. A slight cold adjustment and that could be a wet snow paste. But it's too far out to worry about that. I do agree it's disheartening to see that depiction though. Slap in the face. 

Anything during that period would have to go march 58 crazy to be cold enough. The better threat window opens up after that. 

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don't think wxbell has been that awful. They do sometimes have a product that has loading issues but I've found that's true of all these websites that offer such products. Stormvista is the only other place that offers the same wide range of guidance. However the graphics aren't even close to the same quality. On the plus their products come out 10-15 minutes faster sometimes.  On the negative if you want the weeklies and ensembles and analogs it costs an arm and a leg.  That stuff is on their premium package only. Honestly wxbell is probably the best affordable source for this stuff. I think what jb does is pretty dispicable so I wouldn't give them my money if I found a comperable service. When or if I do trust me I'll blast it out on here. Hopefully if someone else does they do the same. 

Only thing that used to bug me not having access too was the EPS analogs. But lately I realized Ive been doing this long enough I can look at a prog abc predict what the analogs are going to show every time. I know what a good look is. When I see a weenie run of the gfs I'll know "the analogs are gonna be littered with ku storms" and they are.  It would be nice to see them but I'm not spending a ton of money for it. 

Considering I do a lot of my analyzing of the models early in the morning (3:00-5:00 am) that may be the issue. Maybe they do their server maintenance then. All I know is some days it is almost useless to use and today was one of those days. I think I will look long and hard next winter before I dish out that monthly $25 even if I have to spend a little extra.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Considering I do a lot of my analyzing of the models early in the morning (3:00-5:00 am) that may be the issue. Maybe they do their server maintenance then. All I know is some days it is almost useless to use and today was one of those days. I think I will look long and hard next winter before I dish out that monthly $25 even if I have to spend a little extra.

That definitely could be it. I'm never on it those hours but the week I had the flu and was up a few times overnight I do recall them having issues. But that would never impact me. I have to get up at 5:30 so I'm asleep. 

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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

After fighting with Weatherbell once again to get pages to download what little I did see was somewhat encouraging with the improvements in the looks with the longer range. Whether we see continued improvements over subsequent runs is another story though.

Think next year I will have to reconsider whether I want to spend $25/month for Weatherbell. The service has been horrible this winter with pages not downloading and/or downloading at a snails pace. Anyone have suggestions for a service that has decent Euro output that doesn't cost an arm and a leg?

As someone who uses WeatherBell for work and work overnights once or twice a month, I have also noticed the issues at times. The biggest problems seem to arise when they start loading the 6z GFS. I actually have never had an issue with the Euro loading, although every now and then there's a frame missing for an hour, then it pops up. It probably is server maintenance crossing with GFS upload causing it to bog down overnight. I do like their product and Ryan Maue has added some very nice features to the package. I used to be a JB fan back in his Accuweather days, but I don't look or read any of his stuff anymore since I can analyze everything myself now and his hype antics grew old once he left to Weatherbell. I use lots of different sites for models, but the 4 I use most are Weatherbell, Tropical Tidbits (Tropical Season especially), Pivotal Weather, and NCEP (Mainly for ARW/NMM forecasting for Puerto Rico). Each have their positives and negatives, but I get basically everything I need from the combo. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If the general pattern on the gfs and euro is close we will probably be teased some the end of feb or early march. 

 

Agreed. Height patterns are supportive for "another window". And I'm sure ops will tease us at range. I'm still pretty disinterested though. If we can get something promising inside of 6 days or so I'll be back on the field. Until then I'll remain on the sidelines drinking gatorade. 

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

 

Agreed. Height patterns are supportive for "another window". And I'm sure ops will tease us at range. I'm still pretty disinterested though. If we can get something promising inside of 6 days or so I'll be back on the field. Until then I'll remain on the sidelines drinking gatorade. 

I am pretty much done with this winter... we will probably be "teased" with a couple of small storms... but for the next 10 days so we close the shades and enjoy the weather with highs near 60 Sat-Tuesday

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Ltrain

Ltrain

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, kurtstack said:

march is the month where the elevation folks distance themselves from the rest of our snow totals - looking forward to the march snobecue at psu's place


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I am east of the fall line and have done well the past 3 years in March. The whole sun angle thing was overplayed. We had a couple 6-10" snows since March of 2013 I think. It's not all bad :)

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Ltrain said:

I am east of the fall line and have done well the past 3 years in March. The whole sun angle thing was overplayed. We had a couple 6-10" snows since March of 2013 I think. It's not all bad :)

That is physics.  It's not some made up nothing.  I think by the 19th, the sun angle here is 40 degrees.  That's 50% higher than it is in December.  There's no argument that can be made to say that that doesn't matter.  Yeah, you can get snow, but you need really below avg temps, thick cloud cover, and good precip if you are going to get a truly "wintry" day by the time you get to March.

It's funny that you made that post.  I was just sitting here thinking about how much brighter it is outside.

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kurtstack

kurtstack

Posted
Posted
I am east of the fall line and have done well the past 3 years in March. The whole sun angle thing was overplayed. We had a couple 6-10" snows since March of 2013 I think. It's not all bad

Not sure how many 6-10" events we have actually seen over the last three years but that three year period in general was anomolous. We had a very good run. My point was that the higher elevations really do distance themselves from the lowlands in terms of march snow averages. Elevation becomes much more important given the march climo. Could we score, sure it isnt out of the realm of possibilities ut i would feel much better if i was sitting above 1,000 feet of elevation for the projected pattern.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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