Maestrobjwa Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 11 hours ago, cae said: A definite shift west on the 00z 3km NAM and 00z GFS. The GFS has been trending faster with the southern low and towards a sharper trough. I'm not sure how it all plays out, but we might see some cold rain or even a few flakes from this yet. At least it's something to track. It's basically a gigantic snowhole!! It's just not our year for snow...I mean, that's insane, smh That right there tells you that it's just not meant to be this year...wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 Even if the models bust and we get precip on the 15-16th, it's not going to amount to anything. There is is literally no moisture or dynamics to work with. A rain or snow shower would is top end potential and has been that way for many days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Even if the models bust and we get precip on the 15-16th, it's not going to amount to anything. There is is literally no moisture or dynamics to work with. A rain or snow shower would is top end potential and has been that way for many days now. Right..thermals arent supportive anyway because of that northern low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Even if the models bust and we get precip on the 15-16th, it's not going to amount to anything. There is is literally no moisture or dynamics to work with. A rain or snow shower would is top end potential and has been that way for many days now. Exactly. This passed the who cares barrier a while back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 42 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Gotta get one more month of subscriptions. Can't say it's over and risk losing money. friend linked me a post and i went to see "WTH" and he mostly was whining about how he nailed the pattern but the planet is just too warm and so the surface didnt respond and other such nonsense. Amazing how someone so against the argument of human caused global warming has no problem blaming global warming for his busted forecast lol. I will say this though, he isnt wrong about the whole northern hemisphere torching thing. I've commented a couple times over the past 2 years that its disturbing that even with a pretty good "workable" h5 pattern the surface response with cold is pathetic because there just isnt much cold anywhere. I am not sure what to say about that. Obviously coming off a super nino some of that is expected, but before we even recover from that it looks like were headed right back into another nino. In the micro sense that nino could help us as if we get tropical forcing in the right place it could offset the overall warming for our location specifically, plus no one in here is going to care if we end the winter +1.5 temps but with several big snowstorms and 40"+ region wide. But in the longer term macro sense what that could imply for our chances year to year to sustain cold and snow is troublesome if we really are entering a new normal anything like what we have seen the last 2 years. It's hard enough to get cold here without 75% of the northern hemisphere being above average at any given time. That just stacks the odds even more against us. I am still thinking this is mostly just a short term trend and not a new long term normal but lets hope that is true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 31 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Even if the models bust and we get precip on the 15-16th, it's not going to amount to anything. There is is literally no moisture or dynamics to work with. A rain or snow shower would is top end potential and has been that way for many days now. LOL I stopped even paying attention to this days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 True, but the two winters before that were very cold so........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 Just now, psuhoffman said: friend linked me a post and i went to see "WTH" and he mostly was whining about how he nailed the pattern but the planet is just too warm and so the surface didnt respond and other such nonsense. Amazing how someone so against the argument of human caused global warming has no problem blaming global warming for his busted forecast lol. I will say this though, he isnt wrong about the whole northern hemisphere torching thing. I've commented a couple times over the past 2 years that its disturbing that even with a pretty good "workable" h5 pattern the surface response with cold is pathetic because there just isnt much cold anywhere. I am not sure what to say about that. Obviously coming off a super nino some of that is expected, but before we even recover from that it looks like were headed right back into another nino. In the micro sense that nino could help us as if we get tropical forcing in the right place it could offset the overall warming for our location specifically, plus no one in here is going to care if we end the winter +1.5 temps but with several big snowstorms and 40"+ region wide. But in the longer term macro sense what that could imply for our chances year to year to sustain cold and snow is troublesome if we really are entering a new normal anything like what we have seen the last 2 years. It's hard enough to get cold here without 75% of the northern hemisphere being above average at any given time. That just stacks the odds even more against us. I am still thinking this is mostly just a short term trend and not a new long term normal but lets hope that is true. Obviously a lot of truth in that, but we also have to look at the fact that we were plenty cold plenty of times only to watch as precip was scarce, developed just off shore, was pushed south of us, etc. Last week is a prime example. A 75 mile shift in the players and we are looking at a storm that by this years standards would have been a good storm region wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 46 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: friend linked me a post and i went to see "WTH" and he mostly was whining about how he nailed the pattern but the planet is just too warm and so the surface didnt respond and other such nonsense. Amazing how someone so against the argument of human caused global warming has no problem blaming global warming for his busted forecast lol. Hahahaha. Perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: LOL I stopped even paying attention to this days ago you should count the number of words you have written this winter compared to the amount of snow you got. Could be a hobby changing exercise lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 3 hours ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: You guys are really still analyzing this?... Yeah. Even if it's a miss, I enjoy the tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 50 minutes ago, cae said: Yeah. Even if it's a miss, I enjoy the tracking. Well, today's model runs should provide some interesting tracking. What's the magic date again? Feb 27? Or was it Feb 30? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 Lol at how unstable and awful the euro has become past day 5 lately. No model is going to be very consistent with Amy details at that range but for a month it's been shifting the entire longwave pattern run to run. Last few runs went from a bomb off New England to a weak system off Florida and a blowtorch to Joe a pretty cold look day 8-10. Just crazy swings run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 I realize that nothing is really being tracked but NAM was a step towards it precipitating here. Very different from GFS earlier, NAM manages to give Boston another storm while GFS kicks it out to sea. Seems to me that there are still some kinks to be worker out. We need Ravens84 to amp it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 45 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I realize that nothing is really being tracked but NAM was a step towards it precipitating here. Very different from GFS earlier, NAM manages to give Boston another storm while GFS kicks it out to sea. Seems to me that there are still some kinks to be worker out. We need Ravens84 to amp it up. NAM moved the light rain a bit north. Could be a slippery commute tomorrow. And NAM's demented 32k cousin moved it even further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 43 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I realize that nothing is really being tracked but NAM was a step towards it precipitating here. Very different from GFS earlier, NAM manages to give Boston another storm while GFS kicks it out to sea. Seems to me that there are still some kinks to be worker out. We need Ravens84 to amp it up. The northern stream had the southern stream checkmated last week. The only way we can get decent with a 510DM over the mass like is if the southern stream bombs to a 930mb witha a 492dm closed H5. Otherwise it's getting shredded into snizzle. You'd have to move the northern stream at least 500 miles to change things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 I'm really excited about the north trend in the drizzle for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 EPS has a faint signal for a storm day 13-15. Snow mean is about 1-1.5" during that period. It's very cold on the mean. And 10 members spin up a mid Atlantic snowstorm and hit our area. A few big storms. Oddly no close misses all the members that have a storm bullseye the DC area. Those are obviously the members that failed geography. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I'm really excited about the north trend in the drizzle for tomorrow. Your sarcasm is noted! Woo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 41 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I'm really excited about the north trend in the drizzle for tomorrow. You need a north trend for drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 Such warmth in the LR on GFS. I wonder if we will ever see a winter like this again. This has to be a surprise to even those who felt that this would be a warm winter. I almost think March will be cold because how can such a sustained warm pattern last for so long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Days 12-16 look pretty cold .. I see -35c 850's showing up in the Northeast. It'll be gone in 6 hours but... EPS was really cold day 12 on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 2 hours ago, paulythegun said: NAM moved the light rain a bit north. Could be a slippery commute tomorrow. And NAM's demented 32k cousin moved it even further north. The NAM 3k, which I'm beginning to suspect is the most reasonable member of the NAM family, went the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 Well I guess we might as well go back into chase mode for one last Lucy. Gefs just flipped pretty cold in the long range. Im pretty mentally done with this winter but if it's not going to be warm might as well chase one more threat window. I'll go down with the ship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 18z Gefs. I refuse to get drawn back into this. Pretty good look in the lr.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 10 minutes ago, poolz1 said: 18z Gefs. I refuse to get drawn back into this. Pretty good look in the lr.... Mother Nature is trolling us now!!! Watch us finally get that look in march and it leads to an epic 33 degree rainstorm that gives New England another 30" lol i guess it's a start. Last post of the night, happy Valentine's Day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 Some pretty dramatic flipping going on with the ensembles. I would still bet against anything "good" coming out of it. But since its way too early for nice 75 degree weather, I will keep rooting for a fluke cold period with a chance for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Mother Nature is trolling us now!!! Watch us finally get that look in march and it leads to an epic 33 degree rainstorm that gives New England another 30" i guess it's a start. Last post of the night, happy Valentine's Day! Meh...I'm pretty much numb to whatever failure comes our way. Fully prepared! Just one successful tracking episode that ends in an 8 - 12" thump and then I'll be more than happy to dust off the fishing yak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say we aren't getting an 8-12" event. I hope you guys can troll the hell out of this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say we aren't getting an 8-12" event. I hope you guys can troll the hell out of this post. LMAO thats funny right there. You'd love for us to troll this post...while getting 8-12". Heck I know I would. LR models have been nothing short of whacked this year. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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