February Medium/Long Range Disco Thread 2

[mitchnick]

Imho, blocking will finally return next year

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Imho, blocking will finally return next year

early signs are good, but the reason I don't get into seasonal much is we are basing those assumptions on major indices that may or may not be what we expect by then.  Early in the fall there really was some hope for this winter.  The warm pool in the north Pacific was hanging on,  expected flip to easterly qbo and the earlier predictions on the SST were for a more favorable north Pacific then what evolved, and the warming in the equatorial east pacific was mostly missed and hurt us.  On top of that the whole Asian snowcover thing.   Later in fall most of those factors started falling apart and by December it was clearly going to be a struggle, but you can do all the work with analogs and then if some of the major factors like SST suddenly flip it was all for nothing. 

[psuhoffman]

12z GEFS held with the 6z in their flip to a really awful look long term.  Not torch warm but definitely one that would be unlikely to yield snow.  So for now the EPS and GEFS have flipped places with yesterday the EPS becoming a pretty good look long range and the GEFS suddenly switching to an awful one.  Of course perhaps in a couple hours the EPS will flip back and we will have consensus and this miserable winter will be over. 

[Amped]

Euro has an impressive SE low day 9. Temps too warm of course.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

12z GEFS held with the 6z in their flip to a really awful look long term.  Not torch warm but definitely one that would be unlikely to yield snow.  So for now the EPS and GEFS have flipped places with yesterday the EPS becoming a pretty good look long range and the GEFS suddenly switching to an awful one.  Of course perhaps in a couple hours the EPS will flip back and we will have consensus and this miserable winter will be over. 

Yeah, GEFS mean is pulling a trough more into the west at 12Z...the 00Z mean had nice ridging out west extending up past AK and a trough in the east.  At 12Z, ridging in the eastern Pacific is squashed down a lot more, which I guess results in more troughing in the intermountain west.  Not a good look at all.

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, Amped said:

Euro has an impressive SE low day 9. Temps too warm of course.

Yea the bomb off New England is now a weak 999 low off Florida day 10. Minor adjustments. 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Yeah, GEFS mean is pulling a trough more into the west at 12Z...the 00Z mean had nice ridging out west extending up past AK and a trough in the east.  At 12Z, ridging in the eastern Pacific is squashed down a lot more, which I guess results in more troughing in the intermountain west.  Not a good look at all.

Nope and euro op seems headed that way also. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Nope and euro op seems headed that way also. 

Somehow, does not surprise me that it would head in the "worse" direction, given how this year has gone!

[Amped]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea the bomb off New England is now a weak 999 low off Florida day 10. Minor adjustments. 

That's why I don't take the long range pattern seriously.

 

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Somehow, does not surprise me that it would head in the "worse" direction, given how this year has gone!

Mid march is when it's coming. Lol

[MDstorm]

22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea the bomb off New England is now a weak 999 low off Florida day 10. Minor adjustments. 

The only deck reshuffling appears to be the deck of the Titanic.

 

MDstorm

[usedtobe]

2 hours ago, MDstorm said:

With all of the talk regarding the AO, NAO, EPO, QBO, SAI,  everyone is missing the most important index......the WPI.  This is the Wes Post Index.  I think that Wes has only rarely posted  on weather related items this winter.   There is a very high correlation with the number of times that Wes does post (either about current or future threats) and the actual amount of snow that we see.  This year the WPI is very low.  He has obviously not seen the potential in some of our "windows" this winter.  I am looking forward to a rise in the index next year and maybe a slight bump before this winter is over.

 

MDstorm

Don't expect many more this month posts on the pattern this winter though I haven't thought much about March.   The remainder of February is looking pretty lame.  Been the quietest year since I started posting on any of the forums or on CWG.  My lack of posting isn't even related to how often I played golf as I haven't played much.  The pattern just hasn't been that exciting. 

[MDstorm]

9 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

Don't expect many more this month posts on the pattern this winter though I haven't thought much about March.   The remainder of February is looking pretty lame.  Been the quietest year since I started posting on any of the forums or on CWG.  My lack of posting isn't even related to how often I played golf as I haven't played much.  The pattern just hasn't been that exciting. 

Gotcha.  That's why I think your posts (or lack there of this year, lol) are a good indicator of the potential the pattern offers.  I expect A LOT more posts next winter.

 

MDstorm

[paulythegun]

want to see a southern stream vort briefly get its act together before being smashed into oblivion by a northern stream vort? 18z nam:

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

want to see a southern stream vort briefly get its act together before being smashed into oblivion by a northern stream vort? 18z nam:

We are just doomed this year to bad luck, bad timing, bad pattern....never to be forgotten.  

[Ji]

12 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

We are just doomed this year to bad luck, bad timing, bad pattern....never to be forgotten.  

if we can just delay this or speed it up or a combo..boom blizzard for DC

[Wonderdog]

15 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

We are just doomed this year to bad luck, bad timing, bad pattern....never to be forgotten.  

Luck has nothing to do with this pattern we're in. If we had some semblance of blocking this year, at least the LR modeling would have been more predictable.

[kurtstack]

wes has been at it long enough not to fall for lucy long range fantasies lol


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[Amped]

It reminds me of  when someone's trying to catch a ball and it ends up hitting them in the face. PhaseFail 2017

[paulythegun]

EPS ain't great. Except for this one member, e8, which is one of the most absurd things I've even seen on the EPS. I've included about 5 days here.....watch as the lows circle each other then finally merge. PS: I think the ECMWF goons will forgive me this one trespass

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, paulythegun said:

want to see a southern stream vort briefly get its act together before being smashed into oblivion by a northern stream vort? 18z nam:

Sums up this winter perfectly. We were a 12 hour adjustment slower in that northern stream vort from an east coast bomb. 

[psuhoffman]

53 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Luck has nothing to do with this pattern we're in. If we had some semblance of blocking this year, at least the LR modeling would have been more predictable.

We have a -nao + pna right there. Some great ku storms were showing up in the analogs to this pattern on ncep. I would agree with your statement for the winter as a whole but this pattern was fine we just lacked some luck.  We were fated to a bad year by the overall pattern from the go. But bad luck in our limited legit opportunities may doom us to a historic fail. This level of futility requires both a bad overall winter pattern and bad luck. 

[Maestrobjwa]

43 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Sums up this winter perfectly. We were a 12 hour adjustment slower in that northern stream vort from an east coast bomb. 

So the Almanac was 12 hours away from being correct...wow, lol 

[psuhoffman]

So the EPS still looks half decent long range at h5 but with the exception of the one member with a match 1958 redux there is nothing on the snowfall plots. That made me think about a phenomenon that's been persistent all year where the h5 pattern will at times look pretty good but the models were pretty lame with the snowfall. 

Yea there were times the mean snuck up around 6" for a run or two but my experience over the years is those always run high. Skewed by some big members. A mean of 6" over several threats isn't that impressive. In 2014 when we were about to get hit the mean from a week out was often over 12". Same late in 2015. And last year the mean went nuts at range before the blizzard. 

Several  times I thought the h5 looks good, the snow looks kinda meh but that should come around. Truth is the guidance didn't let me down. It simply beat me. I misused it. Assumed a decent pattern would yield some snow when the guidance was implying there was a problem. They saw the warts from way out. I saw the warts abc thought ehh lots of time for something to pop up. The pattern is pretty good. But in truth the warts were there each time and stayed from range to verification. 

Below is the h5 from the last couple weeks and one day I cherry picked. Not awful looks yet produced nothing. I think because it hasn't snowed there is a narrative that every pattern failed to materialize. A few did fall apart at range. But others did verify but a small scale flaw within the pattern prevented it from producing. 

[mitchnick]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So the EPS still looks half decent long range at h5 but with the exception of the one member with a match 1958 redux there is nothing on the snowfall plots. That made me think about a phenomenon that's been persistent all year where the h5 pattern will at times look pretty good but the models were pretty lame with the snowfall. 

Yea there were times the mean snuck up around 6" for a run or two but my experience over the years is those always run high. Skewed by some big members. A mean of 6" over several threats isn't that impressive. In 2014 when we were about to get hit the mean from a week out was often over 12". Same late in 2015. And last year the mean went nuts at range before the blizzard. 

Several  times I thought the h5 looks good, the snow looks kinda meh but that should come around. Truth is the guidance didn't let me down. It simply beat me. I misused it. Assumed a decent pattern would yield some snow when the guidance was implying there was a problem. They saw the warts from way out. I saw the warts abc thought ehh lots of time for something to pop up. The pattern is pretty good. But in truth the warts were there each time and stayed from range to verification. 

Below is the h5 from the last couple weeks and one day I cherry picked. Not awful looks yet produced nothing. I think because it hasn't snowed there is a narrative that every pattern failed to materialize. A few did fall apart at range. But others did verify but a small scale flaw within the pattern prevented it from producing. 

Both of those 500mb maps have that persistent ridge over Japan. 

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So the EPS still looks half decent long range at h5 but with the exception of the one member with a match 1958 redux there is nothing on the snowfall plots. That made me think about a phenomenon that's been persistent all year where the h5 pattern will at times look pretty good but the models were pretty lame with the snowfall. 

Yea there were times the mean snuck up around 6" for a run or two but my experience over the years is those always run high. Skewed by some big members. A mean of 6" over several threats isn't that impressive. In 2014 when we were about to get hit the mean from a week out was often over 12". Same late in 2015. And last year the mean went nuts at range before the blizzard. 

Several  times I thought the h5 looks good, the snow looks kinda meh but that should come around. Truth is the guidance didn't let me down. It simply beat me. I misused it. Assumed a decent pattern would yield some snow when the guidance was implying there was a problem. They saw the warts from way out. I saw the warts abc thought ehh lots of time for something to pop up. The pattern is pretty good. But in truth the warts were there each time and stayed from range to verification. 

Below is the h5 from the last couple weeks and one day I cherry picked. Not awful looks yet produced nothing. I think because it hasn't snowed there is a narrative that every pattern failed to materialize. A few did fall apart at range. But others did verify but a small scale flaw within the pattern prevented it from producing. 

Lets just not use the phrase "workable pattern" anymore. If the weeklies somehow look decent, but not great, lets not say it. None of these workable patterns have worked out lol. Its like watching a movie where you know how its going to end. Say like, the Titanic. 

[Bob Chill]

One thing I'm absolutely sure about....if I'm ever traveling to Japan...I'm calling mitch for the forecast. 

[CAPE]

Weeklies...

March = Spring

Bring it.

[kurtstack]

If i ser a petsistent ridge over japan in december of 2017 im jumping before the winter even starts lol.

[CAPE]

Before someone stomps on me, there is relative cold nearby, and the E Pacific looks pretty decent for a time. But most of the lower heights are west, with general ridging over the east. Not impossible to score something in the first 10 days or so of the month with that look.