February Medium/Long Range Disco Thread 2

[psuhoffman]

I just don't see how anything significant can occur with the northern stream system right there. The precip from the stj system is going to get sheared out where it hits the flow from the northern stream. So if we adjust that north the temps would too probably and it would be rain anyways. we need that northern system out of the way. 

[kurtstack]

2/23 storm is gonna be a deck shuffler - looks like we will have a chance after that.

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Reeaaal close to getting at least a little something?...Again, if it were to happen like this...I mean, c'mon, lol This has got to be progress for our sanity's sake!!

Even if precip got a little further northwest, surface temps arent very supportive. Not much hope here.

[Maestrobjwa]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I just don't see how anything significant can occur with the northern stream system right there. The precip from the stj system is going to get sheared out where it hits the flow from the northern stream. So if we adjust that north the temps would too probably and it would be rain anyways. we need that northern system out of the way. 

Ah, so north wouldn't be much of a help here? (Now when you say "sheared out", do you mean it'll fall apart or get kicked OTS?) And if that map were to comes north more, it brings warm air with it? 

[cae]

Ukie now gets some very light precip into the cities.  850 temps in DC would be cold enough for snow, but the surface would be in the upper 30s.

[mitchnick]

Well, if you were waiting to see what the pattern will look like after the coming warmup,  the day 10 Euro from 0Z gives us a hint.....985 closed low off Cape Cod!  Lol

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2017021300&fh=240&xpos=99&ypos=11

[psuhoffman]

57 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Well, if you were waiting to see what the pattern will look like after the coming warmup,  the day 10 Euro from 0Z gives us a hint.....985 closed low off Cape Cod!  Lol

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2017021300&fh=240&xpos=99&ypos=11

It's after that we would have a shot anyways. That storm that bombs off New England is the day 9 storm we pretty much punted yesterday but speculated it may shake up the pattern and provide a chance behind it. Way too far out to really do more then speculate.  Plus the day 10 euro has been awful all winter so I'm not even sold on that yet either. 

And on a side note I've never understood the New England thing. Boston is about 450 miles away and way further north. They are such a different climo I don't even blink when something happens there. No different then if Colorado is getting snow. Or a better analogy would be that we don't freak out in fits of jealousy when Toronto gets snow yet their about the same distance.   My only explanation is since Boston is downstream from us they tend to get the same storms we were rooting for but missed. But that's expected.

My take isn't  jealousy but to say "hmm maybe I should move there". I love it here and my family is in this area, but at the same time my wife and I both love snow and love New England and Colorado and this latest in a long line of budget scares has us thinking of maybe giving somewhere new a try if it comes to that. I love working with inner city kids even though it can be very difficult. They are some great kids once you get past the wall they have up from their surroundings. But when I decided to do this I was young, had more energy, and no family to consider. The city threatening to fire you every year despite 12 years of excellent evaluations and high test scores due to their inability to budget gets annoying after a while.  

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It's after that we would have a shot anyways. That storm that bombs off New England is the day 9 storm we pretty much punted yesterday but speculated it may shake up the pattern and provide a chance behind it. Way too far out to really do more then speculate.  Plus the day 10 euro has been awful all winter so I'm not even sold on that yet either. 

And on a side note I've never understood the New England thing. Boston is about 450 miles away and way further north. They are such a different climo I don't even blink when something happens there. No different then if Colorado is getting snow. Or a better analogy would be that we don't freak out in fits of jealousy when Toronto gets snow yet their about the same distance.   My only explanation is since Boston is downstream from us they tend to get the same storms we were rooting for but missed. But that's expected.

My take isn't  jealousy but to say "hmm maybe I should move there". I love it here and my family is in this area, but at the same time my wife and I both love snow and love New England and Colorado and this latest in a long line of budget scares has us thinking of maybe giving somewhere new a try if it comes to that. I love working with inner city kids even though it can be very difficult. They are some great kids once you get past the wall they have up from their surroundings. But when I decided to do this I was young, had more energy, and no family to consider. The city threatening to fire you every year despite 12 years of excellent evaluations and high test scores due to their inability to budget gets annoying after a while.  

I'm not jealous.  I'm not moving anywhere for maybe 20 days out of the year.  My point is, we're seeing an almost identical set up as last week, yesterday,  and Wednesday this week.  Not much of a change in the ultimate outcome despite the early spring advertisement coming after Wednesday. 

[psuhoffman]

7 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ah, so north wouldn't be much of a help here? (Now when you say "sheared out", do you mean it'll fall apart or get kicked OTS?) And if that map were to comes north more, it brings warm air with it? 

The dominant low is the one to our north. So the flow is out of the southwest under that. We need the southern low to be dominant or the northern low out of the way. Don't see either. I made a post about why this is a problem several days ago. I have a meeting but after I'll find it and repost if someone else hasn't already. 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I'm not jealous.  I'm not moving anywhere for maybe 20 days out of the year.  My point is, we're seeing an almost identical set up as last week, yesterday,  and Wednesday this week.  Not much of a change in the ultimate outcome despite the early spring advertisement coming after Wednesday. 

The second part was an in general statement not directed at you but i see why it came off that way and it's my fault. Every time Boston gets snow we get a flood of I hate New England comments. It's not as bad as it used to be. Just never got that. 

[psuhoffman]

0z gefs and EPS had a workable pattern past day 10. 6z gefs just had about the worst flip I've seen in an ensemble. When I see something like that often it's a hiccup. But if it's not then we can finally put the fork in this so called winter. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

The second part was an in general statement not directed at you but i see why it came off that way and it's my fault. Every time Boston gets snow we get a flood of I hate New England comments. It's not as bad as it used to be. Just never got that. 

I don't get it either.  Snow requires frozen water.  That requires a temp at or below 32.  The dividing line between sub freezing and above freezing has to exist somewhere.  Climatology says that line is traditionally north of us.  I'd say normally somewhere around the 41st parallel.  New England exists north of that line.  We don't.

If it means that much to somebody, then move.  There are jobs and houses up there just like there are here.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

It's after that we would have a shot anyways. That storm that bombs off New England is the day 9 storm we pretty much punted yesterday but speculated it may shake up the pattern and provide a chance behind it. Way too far out to really do more then speculate.  Plus the day 10 euro has been awful all winter so I'm not even sold on that yet either. 

And on a side note I've never understood the New England thing. Boston is about 450 miles away and way further north. They are such a different climo I don't even blink when something happens there. No different then if Colorado is getting snow. Or a better analogy would be that we don't freak out in fits of jealousy when Toronto gets snow yet their about the same distance.   My only explanation is since Boston is downstream from us they tend to get the same storms we were rooting for but missed. But that's expected.

My take isn't  jealousy but to say "hmm maybe I should move there". I love it here and my family is in this area, but at the same time my wife and I both love snow and love New England and Colorado and this latest in a long line of budget scares has us thinking of maybe giving somewhere new a try if it comes to that. I love working with inner city kids even though it can be very difficult. They are some great kids once you get past the wall they have up from their surroundings. But when I decided to do this I was young, had more energy, and no family to consider. The city threatening to fire you every year despite 12 years of excellent evaluations and high test scores due to their inability to budget gets annoying after a while.  

Hey man, I dunno what you teach....but I teach physics in DCPS and the pay is great and they don't threaten to can you yearly. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

Hey man, I dunno what you teach....but I teach physics in DCPS and the pay is great and they don't threaten to can you yearly. 

I teach politics, economics, government, and coach policy debate.  Used to coach soccer too until they cancelled that program years ago.   Thanks for the heads up, truthfully I doubt I am in that much danger as my administrators don't want to let me go as a do a lot of extra stuff and my HSA test scores are always very good.  But one of these years they might cut the budget so much they won't have a choice given my higher salary due to years service and my masters degree and some extra stuff I did to advance my salary scale.  Now all that stuff might work against me.  But I think it if does come to that we are just going to go start over somewhere else.  Make it an adventure. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I teach politics, economics, government, and coach policy debate.  Used to coach soccer too until they cancelled that program years ago.   Thanks for the heads up, truthfully I doubt I am in that much danger as my administrators don't want to let me go as a do a lot of extra stuff and my HSA test scores are always very good.  But one of these years they might cut the budget so much they won't have a choice given my higher salary due to years service and my masters degree and some extra stuff I did to advance my salary scale.  Now all that stuff might work against me.  But I think it if does come to that we are just going to go start over somewhere else.  Make it an adventure. 

Yeah, my wife and I are pretty into outdoorsy stuff (hiking, backpacking, canoeing, skiing, etc) so we've always had our eye on either the northeast (Maine/NH/Upstate NY) or somewhere out west, but at the end of the day it's so hard with the jobs.  We both have jobs that we like and at lease somewhat excel at.  I'd have to find some other district with a physics or upper level science opening (I'm not willing to teach 9th grade or anything like that anymore) and then I'd have to make sure it has a comparable pension plan.  And she works for the EPA so she's got a pretty sweet federal job that's tough to justify leaving.   Anyhow, I'll take any further discussion to banter. 

Back to weather: GFS looks about the same for the midweek deal.  

 

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Yeah, my wife and I are pretty into outdoorsy stuff (hiking, backpacking, canoeing, skiing, etc) so we've always had our eye on either the northeast (Maine/NH/Upstate NY) or somewhere out west, but at the end of the day it's so hard with the jobs.  We both have jobs that we like and at lease somewhat excel at.  I'd have to find some other district with a physics or upper level science opening (I'm not willing to teach 9th grade or anything like that anymore) and then I'd have to make sure it has a comparable pension plan.  And she works for the EPA so she's got a pretty sweet federal job that's tough to justify leaving.   Anyhow, I'll take any further discussion to banter. 

Back to weather: GFS looks about the same for the midweek deal.  

 

Given the current state of the guidance there isn't much to discuss in here that wouldn't be banter.  The midweek thing is very much dead and burried.  We would need a BIG change in timing between the northern and southern stream, and I doubt we have enough time left for that kind of error.  Hopefully I am wrong but honestly I gave up totally on that a couple days ago and am not even watching it run to run anymore.  The only thing I am mildly interested in today is to see if the 12z guidance holds its ground with the long range look of the 0z GEFS and EPS or if we see it move towards the 6z GEFS.  If you missed it the 6z GEFS was a total disaster and basically would be the end of any tracking or threats. 

[Bob Chill]

I made a post earlier about the AO. I used to have a great spreadsheet with strong +AO Decembers and how winter fared. The list showed a strong correlation with below normal snowfall. I pulled a quick data set where the Dec AO was +1 or more and the average monthly AO for DJ was +1 or more. Here's how it looks with snowfall @ DCA:

51-52: 10.8"

72-73: .1"

88-89: 5.7"

90-91: 8.1"

91-92: 6.6"

92-93: 11.7" (March superstorm made winter memorable but the year sucked)

99-00: 15.4" (winter was saved by a fluke)

06-07: 9.5" (Feb came around after an awful start)

 

There are other years like 74-75 and 75-76 that don't meet the specific criteria but were pretty close. Those years also sucked. 

Hindsight is easy but I pointed out my concerns back in late Dec that this winter has some bad analog company. Dec AO reading came in @ 1.786. That is really high and Jan carried the trend. Obviously this year has be particularly bad in the snow dept but things didn't break our way with the few chances we had. We could easily be in the 5-10" range on the season around the region but it is what it is. In general, this winter is playing out like many other +AO winters. Warmish and sucky in the snow dept. 

[Superstorm]

I think the Boston jealousy factor is just that. It is upstream and they can get the same storms that hit us plus the ones that just miss.

It helps to be further from the equator and stick out into the Atlantic.

If a storm is in Colorado or Minnesota or even Chicago, you know it's probably not looking good for us:


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[packfan98]

7 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

I think the Boston jealousy factor is just that. It is upstream and they can get the same storms that hit us plus the ones that just miss.

It helps to be further from the equator and stick out into the Atlantic.

If a storm is in Colorado or Minnesota or even Chicago, you know it's probably not looking good for us:


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

As a resident of the southeast, I don't usually root against anyone getting snow.  I think the sticking point for some is that if you guys get snow, at some point, the models were showing fantasy snow in my backyard.  Same for you when the NE gets snow.  Therefore, the next group to the north has "stolen our snow."  When it comes down to it, it's really the models fault.  Can't someone figure out the physics well enough to get rid of that last 72 hour NW trend???

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I made a post earlier about the AO. I used to have a great spreadsheet with strong +AO Decembers and how winter fared. The list showed a strong correlation with below normal snowfall. I pulled a quick data set where the Dec AO was +1 or more and the average monthly AO for DJ was +1 or more. Here's how it looks with snowfall @ DCA:

51-52: 10.8"

72-73: .1"

88-89: 5.7"

90-91: 8.1"

91-92: 6.6"

92-93: 11.7" (March superstorm made winter memorable but the year sucked)

99-00: 15.4" (winter was saved by a fluke)

06-07: 9.5" (Feb came around after an awful start)

 

There are other years like 74-75 and 75-76 that don't meet the specific criteria but were pretty close. Those years also sucked. 

Hindsight is easy but I pointed out my concerns back in late Dec that this winter has some bad analog company. Dec AO reading came in @ 1.786. That is really high and Jan carried the trend. Obviously this year has be particularly bad in the snow dept but things didn't break our way with the few chances we had. We could easily be in the 5-10" range on the season around the region but it is what it is. In general, this winter is playing out like many other +AO winters. Warmish and sucky in the snow dept. 

Thanks for posting the numbers, really is clear.   We were talking about this back in mid december and I think most of us were on the same page that from mid december on (once some of the key factors showed their hands) we knew this winter was in trouble.  That we probably weren't playing for a "win" but for a moral victory (just get SOME snow).  I guess the data also suggests we should have expected that given only 1/8 years ended in a total fail.  But we did have our chances this year, as you said, and we just lacked any luck at all. 

On another note WOW at that 92/93 number.  That was my last winter living in NJ before moving to northern VA and so I guess I was never that aware of the numbers, but I had researched up in this area and it was over 50" here.  There was a string of 4-8" snowstorms in Feb and early March up here before the superstorm, and solid snowcover for about a month.  I didnt realize it was that bad just 30 miles south.  Must have been a really sharp cutoff to every one of those February and early March storms.  Oddly enough I know 1994 had a similar sharp cutoff between here and the DC area with all those ice storms down there that dropped at least a few inches of snow each time up here.  That was 2 years very close together with a VERY sharp gradient over the entire winter in about the same spot.  We haven't seen anything that bad in recent years, when I have gone above normal so has Baltimore and DC in recent years. 

[gymengineer]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I made a post earlier about the AO. I used to have a great spreadsheet with strong +AO Decembers and how winter fared. The list showed a strong correlation with below normal snowfall. I pulled a quick data set where the Dec AO was +1 or more and the average monthly AO for DJ was +1 or more. Here's how it looks with snowfall @ DCA:

51-52: 10.8"

72-73: .1"

88-89: 5.7"

90-91: 8.1"

91-92: 6.6"

92-93: 11.7" (March superstorm made winter memorable but the year sucked)

99-00: 15.4" (winter was saved by a fluke)

06-07: 9.5" (Feb came around after an awful start)

I know you weren't in the area yet, so wouldn't have any reason to know this: 92/93 was a very good snow winter for the northern and western suburbs. MoCo ranged from 25" to 49" for the season. 12/10/92 (the legendary New England crusher) was a snow day with 2-3" across the county before changing to rain. February had a "surprise" 3-6" snow on the 21st ahead of the more general 2-4" across the entire area on the 26th. That was after a few inches already earlier in the month, so it was 10-23" snow month for MoCo. And the blizzard was awesome for the county-- 14" near you up to 18". 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

I know you weren't in the area yet, so wouldn't have any reason to know this: 92/93 was a very good snow winter for the northern and western suburbs. MoCo ranged from 25" to 49" for the season. 12/10/92 (the legendary New England crusher) was a snow day with 2-3" across the county before changing to rain. February had a "surprise" 3-6" snow on the 21st ahead of the more general 2-4" across the entire area on the 26th. That was after a few inches already earlier in the month, so it was 10-23" snow month for MoCo. And the blizzard was awesome for the county-- 14" near you up to 18". 

yea my post above is on this, up here it was an over 50" year.  So the cutoff was extremely sharp right over the DC metro?  I know that can happen, the December 2003 storm I had about 8" out in western Fairfax County and DC was virtually nothing. 

[gymengineer]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

yea my post above is on this, up here it was an over 50" year.  So the cutoff was extremely sharp right over the DC metro?  I know that can happen, the December 2003 storm I had about 8" out in western Fairfax County and DC was virtually nothing. 

Yes, the gradient was severe on most of the February events. Only 2/26/93 was a more generalized snowfall for the region (it was cold storm-- had no problem sticking on the streets even though it was late February). The blizzard itself turned to heavy rain east of the fall line, hence only 6.6" at DCA. Just west of the fall line in southeastern Montgomery County (Potomac, MD), we never changed over to rain. There was jagged edged 'large' sleet pouring from the sky upon changeover after noon, but never rain.  

[gymengineer]

28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Thanks for posting the numbers, really is clear.   We were talking about this back in mid december and I think most of us were on the same page that from mid december on (once some of the key factors showed their hands) we knew this winter was in trouble.  That we probably weren't playing for a "win" but for a moral victory (just get SOME snow).  I guess the data also suggests we should have expected that given only 1/8 years ended in a total fail.  But we did have our chances this year, as you said, and we just lacked any luck at all. 

On another note WOW at that 92/93 number.  That was my last winter living in NJ before moving to northern VA and so I guess I was never that aware of the numbers, but I had researched up in this area and it was over 50" here.  There was a string of 4-8" snowstorms in Feb and early March up here before the superstorm, and solid snowcover for about a month.  I didnt realize it was that bad just 30 miles south.  Must have been a really sharp cutoff to every one of those February and early March storms.  Oddly enough I know 1994 had a similar sharp cutoff between here and the DC area with all those ice storms down there that dropped at least a few inches of snow each time up here.  That was 2 years very close together with a VERY sharp gradient over the entire winter in about the same spot.  We haven't seen anything that bad in recent years, when I have gone above normal so has Baltimore and DC in recent years. 

Have you ever noticed the IAD to DCA difference in 83/84? It's extreme: 22.4" vs. 8.6" 

The late March '84 968-mb bomb on the Delmarva was rain at DCA, and the clipper bomb earlier that month hit northern and western suburbs much harder too. 

[Bob Chill]

92-93 did have a good gradient setup NW. That fits general climo pretty well when winter is void of blocking and still gets good snow into the area. Fluke years happen inside of of any piece of data of course. 13-14 was probably the king of all flukes in the cities/burbs. 

There are some general similarities with winter in the east since 11-12 and the 90's in general. 13-14's closest match is 93-94. The long stretch of +AO winters is also similar. I know the volcano is used to explain some of the early 90's patterns but the more I think about it, the similarities in general are fairly striking. We had a 93-94 type winter that broke snowy instead of icy. Also a 97-98 type winter but avoided a disaster with a single storm. A tendency for strongly positive AO Decembers (basically 4 in a row and 5 out of the last 6). 2014 wasn't strongly positive but still fits the mold. Dec 1990-92 was a 3 year stretch of very positive AO's. 

Could all be coincidence but maybe not. 

[MDstorm]

With all of the talk regarding the AO, NAO, EPO, QBO, SAI,  everyone is missing the most important index......the WPI.  This is the Wes Post Index.  I think that Wes has only rarely posted  on weather related items this winter.   There is a very high correlation with the number of times that Wes does post (either about current or future threats) and the actual amount of snow that we see.  This year the WPI is very low.  He has obviously not seen the potential in some of our "windows" this winter.  I am looking forward to a rise in the index next year and maybe a slight bump before this winter is over.

 

MDstorm

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

92-93 did have a good gradient setup NW. That fits general climo pretty well when winter is void of blocking and still gets good snow into the area. Fluke years happen inside of of any piece of data of course. 13-14 was probably the king of all flukes in the cities/burbs. 

There are some general similarities with winter in the east since 11-12 and the 90's in general. 13-14's closest match is 93-94. The long stretch of +AO winters is also similar. I know the volcano is used to explain some of the early 90's patterns but the more I think about it, the similarities in general are fairly striking. We had a 93-94 type winter that broke snowy instead of icy. Also a 97-98 type winter but avoided a disaster with a single storm. A tendency for strongly positive AO Decembers (basically 4 in a row and 5 out of the last 6). 2014 wasn't strongly positive but still fits the mold. Dec 1990-92 was a 3 year stretch of very positive AO's. 

Could all be coincidence but maybe not. 

Hear that everyone 1996 repeat is coming according to Bob!!!!

[psuhoffman]

I can't remember if it was the cfs or something else but a week ago I saw a prog for sst next winter and it had a moderate modoki nino and north PAC warm pool.  I could live with a combo of 2010 and 2014.

[psuhoffman]

Oh and the qbo should be easterly by then. But we skipped the last phase change so who knows. 

[mitchnick]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Oh and the qbo should be easterly by then. But we skipped the last phase change so who knows. 

Those reasons are why I said last week next year will be good. 

Edit plus low solar