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February Medium/Long Range Disco Thread 2

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Not sure where you see the Euro had a better look. Euro went from a bad look to an even worse look for the Wed. period for both the 500's and the surface. 

 

2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Not sure I see that. I only compared to the prior 12z run.  In that comparison, the ball of death is leaving the ne faster and is further north on the latest run.  Not there yet, but ....

 

2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

For this to have a chance we need a phase sooner/closer to our area, although that would probably just put NYC and NJ in the game. If that SS energy stays separated it will be difficult for it to gain enough latitude on the backside of the NS low.

We are stuck exactly half way in between two ways it could have worked. Either get the northern stream to dig in behind the stj wave and phase or get it out ahead enough that the flow relaxes in time to let the stj wave come up on its own. Neither is even close which is why people are debating which direction we should be rooting. We're screwed lol.  

even that one run of the euro that got the northern stream in behind did it precariously by swinging an elongated lobe around the backside that stretches the northern stream trough to the west and then barely was able to capture the stj. The timing was just too far off for that to work. But that wrecking ball coming down is way too close to relax the flow in time. 

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Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro ens mean temps in the mid 60s next weekend. Supports the op's idea of a warm temps. Op is pushing 70 on sun.  I'm good with that. 

Beyond the warm period there is still a signal for a storm around the 23rd on the GEFS. Not much cold around as modeled and the coldest air would be dropping further west and into the northern plains. Would likely be a cutter and even if it took a decent track it would probably still rain.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Beyond the warm period there is still a signal for a storm around the 23rd on the GEFS. Not much cold around as modeled and the coldest air would be dropping further west and into the northern plains. Would likely be a cutter and even if it took a decent track it would probably still rain.

Yea, looks like another winterish pattern on the means as we move through the last week of the month. Eps mean temps are actually pretty cold at range. Mean highs dropping into the low 40's towards the end of the run. Thats pretty cold for mean temps at long range in late Feb. 

I'm in the mood for driving with the windows down and doing some yard work. With nothing interesting on tap except wind for the next 10 days,  my interest in winter wx is at a season low. 

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dailylurker

dailylurker

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, looks like another winterish pattern on the means as we move through the last week of the month. Eps mean temps are actually pretty cold at range. Mean highs dropping into the low 40's towards the end of the run. Thats pretty cold for mean temps at long range in late Feb. 

I'm in the mood for driving with the windows down and doing some yard work. With nothing interesting on tap except wind for the next 10 days,  my interest in winter wx is at a season low. 

At least we'll have an awesome crabbing season again. We had huge numbers of crabs in the fall. With the super warm winter we've had, crabbing will be off the chicken neck :). You're welcome aboard any time.

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15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, looks like another winterish pattern on the means as we move through the last week of the month. Eps mean temps are actually pretty cold at range. Mean highs dropping into the low 40's towards the end of the run. Thats pretty cold for mean temps at long range in late Feb. 

I'm in the mood for driving with the windows down and doing some yard work. With nothing interesting on tap except wind for the next 10 days,  my interest in winter wx is at a season low. 

Worth keeping an eye on because it has been a "period of interest" for a while. But I agree, with the upcoming warmth, I am going to get the pre-emergent down and clean up the mower. Time to order some larvicide for the seasonal wet area back in the woods.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

At least we'll have an awesome crabbing season again. We had huge numbers of crabs in the fall. With the super warm winter we've had, crabbing will be off the chicken neck :). You're welcome aboard any time.

I'm taking you up on that this year. I'm good crew with cash for gas/gear/bait. I'm gone second half of June but first half during the week is wide open. July and Aug is fine too as long as it's not 95 and flat calm. Lol. 

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dallen7908

dallen7908

Posted
Posted
19 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I see nothing that looks promising at this time. 

 

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Really nice setup at 384 hours on gfs

Thanks for the return to form.  Your comment yesterday hit me hard.  If you've lost optimism ... there is no-one left to turn to. Looking forward to Late February and early March. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Really nice setup at 384 hours on gfs

I know you're joking but also see the same thing I do last week of the month. It's another winter pattern on the means that could do something. 

This year has been particularly annoying because workable patterns keep coming and going. It's one thing to have an 11-12 type winter where we go weeks on end with nothing good showing up. Isn't fun but at least there is no reason to chase anything. This winter has held interest door to door but game time has sucked.

Looks like we'll have another potential window that will have some good looks and potential threats starting to show up as we move through this week. I guess I'll hold out hope that I get an event that eclipses an inch. Lol. One measly inch in one event has been too high a bar all year though. 

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I know you're joking but also see the same thing I do last week of the month. It's another winter pattern on the means that could do something. 

This year has been particularly annoying because workable patterns keep coming and going. It's one thing to have an 11-12 type winter where we go weeks on end with nothing good showing up. Isn't fun but at least there is no reason to chase anything. This winter has held interest door to door but game time has sucked.

Looks like we'll have another potential window that will have some good looks and potential threats starting to show up as we move through this week. I guess I'll hold out hope that I get an event that eclipses an inch. Lol. One measly inch in one event has been too high a bar all year though. 

That's why I referenced the late season flukes. After the spring advertisement starting late this week, it would not be odd for a winter pattern comeback. It happens a lot as most likely know. The question is whether it changes the pattern(s) that have shut us out all season. Off the top of my head, 2 different kinds of late winter/early spring reshuffles were 92/93 & 09/10. 92/93 reshuffled into a snowy pattern while late February 2010 changed just a little,  but enough for us to just miss the late February storm that crushed NYC; March 2009 storm qulifies too as a 1 hit fluke wonder, but that only hit the I95 corridor.  There are probably better examples, but the point is that this is our last hope. I have grouped them together as "flukes", but what I'm really referring to are storms that don't fit the seasonal patterns. 

So am I saying that we have a chance?  Of course we do, but it depends entirely if we can get the atmosphere to forget everything that's happened up through the end of February. And, fwiw, the Gfs at 384 does not look like anything we've seen so far this year to these old, weenie eyes.

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24 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That's why I referenced the late season flukes. After the spring advertisement starting late this week, it would not be odd for a winter pattern comeback. It happens a lot as most likely know. The question is whether it changes the pattern(s) that have shut us out all season. Off the top of my head, 2 different kinds of late winter/early spring reshuffles were 92/93 & 09/10. 92/93 reshuffled into a snowy pattern while late February 2010 changed just a little,  but enough for us to just miss the late February storm that crushed NYC; March 2009 storm qulifies too as a 1 hit fluke wonder, but that only hit the I95 corridor.  There are probably better examples, but the point is that this is our last hope. I have grouped them together as "flukes", but what I'm really referring to are storms that don't fit the seasonal patterns. 

So am I saying that we have a chance?  Of course we do, but it depends entirely if we can get the atmosphere to forget everything that's happened up through the end of February. And, fwiw, the Gfs at 384 does not look like anything we've seen so far this year to these old, weenie eyes.

Looks like another in a long line of workable patterns that have not worked out. And its only 384 hours away!

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, dallen7908 said:

 

Thanks for the return to form.  Your comment yesterday hit me hard.  If you've lost optimism ... there is no-one left to turn to. Looking forward to Late February and early March. 

It's not that a lost optimism, there really was nothing of any interest/potential to talk about. When/if it does I will be all over it. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I know you're joking but also see the same thing I do last week of the month. It's another winter pattern on the means that could do something. 

This year has been particularly annoying because workable patterns keep coming and going. It's one thing to have an 11-12 type winter where we go weeks on end with nothing good showing up. Isn't fun but at least there is no reason to chase anything. This winter has held interest door to door but game time has sucked.

Looks like we'll have another potential window that will have some good looks and potential threats starting to show up as we move through this week. I guess I'll hold out hope that I get an event that eclipses an inch. Lol. One measly inch in one event has been too high a bar all year though. 

I was kidding in terms of getting excited over a day 16 prog. But i wasn't lying it was a good look. Your right this year has been a major tease. We did have long stretches of awful patterns late December and mid January. But we also had several windows of decent patterns. Enough that you would have thought this wouldn't end up this bad.

We got screwed so many ways. One perfect track coastal mid January and no cold. A couple clippers missed just north and south. The biggest problem that I've noticed is a tendency that during each window of opportunity when cold is in place suddenly the wave train goes dead. Everything is suppressed for our entire window then as soon as the pattern relaxes a storm comes along and cuts.  That was true after the ice storm in December. There were several weak waves along the boundary and nothing got organized for days until it warmed. Same thing early January although one came close. Then again last week. There seemed to be a wave of northern stream vorts constantly keeping the flow hostile underneath. 

We probably get another roll of the dice or two. It's not like we have gone long stretches without opportunities, it's that all the opportunities went to crap. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

Ok fine you want optimism the long range gefs could hold opportunity. The epo ridge in the North Pacific towards AK will try to press cold into the Conus. It will be centered to our west but the se ridge looks pretty muted and the cold looks like it's pressing based on the means. Could get a wave type system already by the boundary ala late 2014 and 2015.  

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok fine you want optimism the long range gefs could hold opportunity. The epo ridge in the North Pacific towards AK will try to press cold into the Conus. It will be centered to our west but the se ridge looks pretty muted and the cold looks like it's pressing based on the means. Could get a wave type system already by the boundary ala late 2014 and 2015.  

GEFS does (still) have the look you describe, but it looked more impressive to me a few days ago. It could still work of course. We have said that a lot this winter though lol. Everyone is frustrated of course, but until we get to March and the LR looks bleak, no reason to quit or proclaim winter is over. Always a chance.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok fine you want optimism the long range gefs could hold opportunity. The epo ridge in the North Pacific towards AK will try to press cold into the Conus. It will be centered to our west but the se ridge looks pretty muted and the cold looks like it's pressing based on the means. Could get a wave type system already by the boundary ala late 2014 and 2015.  

You did catch the follow up a couple days after the day 10-11 storm on the 12Z EPS? Was also hinted at on the 00Z as well which I missed. I would think temps wouldn't be an issue if it is the real deal.

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