psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 30 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Well, they've been generally correct with our snow chances, and that's really all I'm interested in. Like I said earlier today, we've lacked consensus (and what I mean is reasonable consensus) among the models for snow. And that's what I like to see usually before getting excited. But, we're not NE and 3 years in a row of AN snowfall at the 3 airports is the best we've ever done, so on to next year barring a miracle this week or a fluke in the long run. There are lots of ways to get no snow. The geps has been right but not because it did anything well. it's like if a model showed a miss to the west and in the end it missed to the east. The result was correct in a miss but it was awful no less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 the last 3 winters have taken the sting off this winter. i suppose this winter gets a pass, though i'm not a fan of shutouts, which this basically has been minus a coating on the grass here. if this winter plays out as it has so far, then it is what it is and we move onto next winter. unusual stuff, though. wouldn't expect us to not even get 2". hopefully, we can find a way to get a 2-4" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 The 18z GFS did get better, but I suspect it's just converging with the other globals. I think the Ukie, which currently is closest to having something for us, will tell us if things really have shifted in our favor. If it gets better for us, then that's good sign. But if it also steps towards the other globals, they'll probably all meet in a place that gives us nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 interesting comment from twitter bernie ratno, raining on our snow chances next weekend location of UL across Califronia looks slower to me compared with yesterday. Not a good sign for snow from NYC on south. more on that tom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 from anthony maiesllo And the Pacific trend continues on the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Might be a nice time to organize a road trip to BOS. They might see 20 inches Monday, followed by another significant snow the following week. Stay at a hotel in BOS for a couple of weeks, help em dig out. They'll be blowing out billions of gaskets on snowblowers. For the right price, I could be persuaded to help em out.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Are you going to tell me this is not a hit?? eta: I hate .png files Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 2 hours ago, BTRWx said: Are you going to tell me this is not a hit?? eta: I hate .png files no, it isnt, passes to our south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 So, seems like the 6z NAM is trying. Still a miss, but...i know...NAM, etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 funny, now DT is questioning whether winter is over and it will be snowless, promises to answer in his weekly video update this aftn, that should be an interesting video Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: So, seems like the 6z NAM is trying. Still a miss, but...i know...NAM, etc dt is suggestuing if northern low was 24 hrs faster, there would be enough cold air for a MA snowstorm, but as this is unlikely, New England gets blitzed, yet again, as Joe D'Aleo suggested would happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Not really worth overthinking the overnight runs. Wed. deal is all but dead. Maybe some light precip (showers) for the extreme southern portions of our region with maybe some stray flurries for our region as the cold settles in. As far as the day 11-13 period GEFS still somewhat likes that period but the EPS not so much. Either way temps could very well be an issue even if we can get something to slide underneath us through that period. Looking through day 15 and beyond a little, 500's aren't great but they are workable and with cold available we could always luck into something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 32 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Not really worth overthinking the overnight runs. Wed. deal is all but dead. Maybe some light precip (showers) for the extreme southern portions of our region with maybe some stray flurries for our region as the cold settles in. As far as the day 11-13 period GEFS still somewhat likes that period but the EPS not so much. Either way temps could very well be an issue even if we can get something to slide underneath us through that period. Looking through day 15 and beyond a little, 500's aren't great but they are workable and with cold available we could always luck into something. Luck? Lol. What's that saying/song? If it wasn't for bad luck we'd have no luck at all... In a week, the pattern will be hostile for cold, let alone snow, from the center of the country to the entire east coast, except maybe far northern Maine. Once that period ends, you're into the last few days of February, if not March. For this year, that's fluke territory. Some cut-off low with a rain to snow scenario is probably the best hope at that point. But note I say "hope" and not "chance." Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Luck? Lol. What's that saying/song? If it wasn't for bad luck we'd have no luck at all... In a week, the pattern will be hostile for cold, let alone snow, from the center of the country to the entire east coast, except maybe far northern Maine. Once that period ends, you're into the last few days of February, if not March. For this year, that's fluke territory. Some cut-off low with a rain to snow scenario is probably the best hope at that point. But note I say "hope" and not "chance." Lol yep that pretty much sums our position up. Enjoy spring mitchnick!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Luck? Lol. What's that saying/song? If it wasn't for bad luck we'd have no luck at all... In a week, the pattern will be hostile for cold, let alone snow, from the center of the country to the entire east coast, except maybe far northern Maine. Once that period ends, you're into the last few days of February, if not March. For this year, that's fluke territory. Some cut-off low with a rain to snow scenario is probably the best hope at that point. But note I say "hope" and not "chance." Lol I have all but closed shop on this winter. If it wasn't for the fact I still have a couple of weeks left on this months weatherbell subscription I would have already given up. But considering I am a cheap SOB who hates wasting money I will keep tracking till that runs out. So I am in till then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: I have all but closed shop on this winter. If it wasn't for the fact I still have a couple of weeks left on this months weatherbell subscription I would have already given up. But considering I am a cheap SOB who hates wasting money I will keep tracking till that runs out. So I am in till then. I'm withya'! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Today's sky has that winter look to it. I assume the EURO while still south was better and with the NAM bringing precip close to us, we may need to hang in there until todays storm clears the east coast before we totally give up on the mid-week event. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 If you toggle ec run with its run 24 hrs prior you can see it is speeding up the ns system. We can at least hang for a couple more runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 3 hours ago, mdsnowlover said: funny, now DT is questioning whether winter is over and it will be snowless, promises to answer in his weekly video update this aftn, that should be an interesting video He's waiting for the 12z Euro to make his forecast for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 9 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Today's sky has that winter look to it. I assume the EURO while still south was better and with the NAM bringing precip close to us, we may need to hang in there until todays storm clears the east coast before we totally give up on the mid-week event. . Not sure where you see the Euro had a better look. Euro went from a bad look to an even worse look for the Wed. period for both the 500's and the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Not sure where you see the Euro had a better look. Euro went from a bad look to an even worse look for the Wed. period for both the 500's and the surface. Not sure I see that. I only compared to the prior 12z run. In that comparison, the ball of death is leaving the ne faster and is further north on the latest run. Not there yet, but .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: If you toggle ec run with its run 24 hrs prior you can see it is speeding up the ns system. We can at least hang for a couple more runs. For this to have a chance we need a phase sooner/closer to our area, although that would probably just put NYC and NJ in the game. If that SS energy stays separated it will be difficult for it to gain enough latitude on the backside of the NS low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Not sure I see that. I only compared to the prior 12z run. In that comparison, the ball of death is leaving the ne faster and is further north on the latest run. Not there yet, but .... 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: For this to have a chance we need a phase sooner/closer to our area, although that would probably just put NYC and NJ in the game. If that SS energy stays separated it will be difficult for it to gain enough latitude on the backside of the NS low. About the only way I see this possibly working out is if that PV drops much farther south and slides underneath us. Would hopefully delay the timing enough to at least get a partial phase, as CAPE mentioned, at a latitude that might impact us. Otherwise expecting that PV to clear quickly enough for the southern energy to gain room is probably a lost cause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: For this to have a chance we need a phase sooner/closer to our area, although that would probably just put NYC and NJ in the game. If that SS energy stays separated it will be difficult for it to gain enough latitude on the backside of the NS low. You think so? Could be right but the ss virtue is pretty potent. Seems it might be able to spawn a storm on its own if it wasn't being squashed by the black hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 10 hours ago, losetoa6 said: Anyone have the 0z Ukie. Meteocentre.com has the old run . Ukie took a step back. All guidance is now in pretty good agreement. They all look something like this. Well at least we know it's probably not going to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 26 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You think so? Could be right but the ss virtue is pretty potent. Seems it might be able to spawn a storm on its own if it wasn't being squashed by the black hole. That NS low is a monster. Its going to absorb the southern energy(phase or partial phase), just a matter of how soon. It happens way too late, and we are running out of time for big changes. As for the possibility of it being left behind to do its own thing, that seems really unlikely. Not enough spacing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 49 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: About the only way I see this possibly working out is if that PV drops much farther south and slides underneath us. Would hopefully delay the timing enough to at least get a partial phase, as CAPE mentioned, at a latitude that might impact us. Otherwise expecting that PV to clear quickly enough for the southern energy to gain room is probably a lost cause. 6z NAM seemed to be suggestive of the NS low dropping further south and sooner(further west). Lets see if anything comes of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Euro ens mean temps in the mid 60s next weekend. Supports the op's idea of a warm temps. Op is pushing 70 on sun. I'm good with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Euro ens mean temps in the mid 60s next weekend. Supports the op's idea of a warm temps. Op is pushing 70 on sun. I'm good with that. Seriously let's just take this winter out back behind the woodshed and end it. Ready for boating and the pool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro ens mean temps in the mid 60s next weekend. Supports the op's idea of a warm temps. Op is pushing 70 on sun. I'm good with that. Now the hope is that no backdoor front rains on our parade like today! Always a worry as we head into spring.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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