BTRWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: That's a flip a coin if there ever was one. Why did you run them out in time so far? What do they look like at 96? Too many misses for my liking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That's a flip a coin if there ever was one. Why did you run them out in time so far? What do they look like at 96? They look the same at 96. Just for posterity. ETA: Some members have the storm coming in much slower it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: 6z gefs was actually better than 12z. But mostly noise in the big picture. Both runs are WAY better than any previous one. Considering 24 hours ago the GEFS support dwindled to near zero, there recent flip is fairly encouraging. Agreed, was just about to post the same thing. Fewer big hits also dropped the mean a bit, but I think anyone seeking a giant hit out of this one is looking in the wrong place. e2 and e16 offer some hope though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Comparing the last three GFS runs, it appears that the 0z Run overnight had the best result for us with the low coming across North Carolina. Trend has deteriorated since then for us to receive snow. But, we all know that we haven't come up with the final solution yet. I say this to you a lot. Comparing run over run ops at D4-5+ is bad practice. That is the end of their decent skill range and jumps aren't necessarily trends. 72-96 hours is when it's time to focus on ops and not ensembles. Until then, stick to the ensembles. Starting tonight @ 0z the ops will carry a good bit of weight. And hopefully start to converge on something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said: They look the same at 96. Just for posterity. Well, that's discouraging. At 96 hours you should see about 75% at least in the ballpark. Are the ones without snow the ones with no precip or do they at least have precip? As Bob said, it's good that it's better. The trend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: I say this to you a lot. Comparing run over run ops at D4-5+ is bad practice. That is the end of their decent skill range and jumps aren't necessarily trends. 72-96 hours is when it's time to focus on ops and not ensembles. Until then, stick to the ensembles. Starting tonight @ 0z the ops will carry a good bit of weight. And hopefully start to converge on something. The two soundings are very similar other than one being a tad warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 This thing is OVER on the gfs by 96 hours. The op has to be given at least moderate weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Well, that's discouraging. At 96 hours you should see about 75% at least in the ballpark. Are the ones without snow the ones with no precip or do they at least have precip? As Bob said, it's good that it's better. The trend! Yea, if the 0z ensemble suite has 75% consensus then it's probably going to work out in some fashion. At least in the sense that the entire thing won't go poof. Ptype is dicey. Won't really know where any of us stand with confidence until 0z Tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Well, that's discouraging. At 96 hours you should see about 75% at least in the ballpark. Are the ones without snow the ones with no precip or do they at least have precip? As Bob said, it's good that it's better. The trend! Here's the snapshot at 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Here's the snapshot at 96 Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Ouch I'm not celebrating!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, Amped said: Ouch I'm not celebrating!!!!! The assumption we are going off of it that the column is cool enough for a paste job, meaning that a good deal of the total precip would be snow. Those snowmaps don't show much unless its below 32, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 i looked at gfs soundings at BWI, and it's 40-41 at 90 hrs., 34-35 at 93, and just about done precipitating at 96 so it doesn't matter. My bet is Euro is either south from 0Z or way west, warm/rainy. One or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 In other news, the Canadian has us at 70F 1PM Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: i looked at gfs soundings at BWI, and it's 40-41 at 90 hrs., 34-35 at 93, and just about done precipitating at 96 so it doesn't matter. My bet is Euro is either south from 0Z or way west, warm/rainy. One or the other. The Euro almost never makes big changes, my guess is it comes ever so slightly NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 21 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: 13 out of 22 are a waste of time, but that's just me. We need to improve on that. GEFS looks decent. 8 get at least 2" to the metro, a few looking real good. A few close misses as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: The assumption we are going off of it that the column is cool enough for a paste job, meaning that a good deal of the total precip would be snow. Those snowmaps don't show much unless its below 32, I think. It starts out around 40f and cools to 34f even up here. That's going to be 0.5" of slush on cartops at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The Euro almost never makes big changes, my guess is it comes ever so slightly NW It made a BIG change from 12z YESTERDAY AND 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 We can accumulate pretty well up to about 34F. Gets dicey after that. At least that is my experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: It made a BIG change from 12z YESTERDAY AND 0z. Even the eps has been jumpy this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Yeah, can't buy the line about the euro and big changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 I found this mentioned in the General Weather and Forecasting thread for those of you interested in having their own nwp programs. I've already experimented with wingridds and feels a little bit more user-friendly compared to gempak and GrADS! http://winweather.org/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Yeah, can't buy the line about the euro and big changes. I think it's a fair statement that it isn't usually jumpy, but last night's run was an exception. Heck, it could go back to a total whiff this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: I think it's a fair statement that it isn't usually jumpy, but last night's run was an exception. Heck, it could go back to a total whiff this run. The vast majority of EPS members have a trailing low. But a ton of spread on how it evolves. Including whiffs south/too far offshore/too close to the departing low and on and on. I just want to see the same general idea of a consolidated low pressure in our general area. Keep that idea alive and then we can hopefully have something to parse out in 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: I think it's a fair statement that it isn't usually jumpy, but last night's run was an exception. Heck, it could go back to a total whiff this run. I think it's a fair statement that it didn't used to make big changes, not so much the last couple of years. Of course, as we get closer, it becomes more rare. Id be shocked at this point if the gfs completely lost the storm. However, as weak as it is, a significant weakening would be essentially the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I think it's a fair statement that it isn't usually jumpy, but last night's run was an exception. Heck, it could go back to a total whiff this run. Gee, this is only three days away! Wow, bad year for nwp. Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Not going to have to wait long for the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Not going to have to wait long for the euro. One more frame! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 At day 3, euro is much stronger with the surface low in Texas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1002 low texas/OK border at 72 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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