February Medium/Long Range Disco Thread 2

[stormtracker]

7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Short of that running underneath of us I think this is pretty much dead in the water. Don't see any other solutions at this point that would work short of the 500's being off.

I'm with you on this one. Any slight hope I had yesterday is gone.  

[showmethesnow]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm with you on this one. Any slight hope I had yesterday is gone.  

The writing was on the wall for me a couple of days ago. Have been ghosting the forums and not posting because I didn't want to harsh the mood. Oh well, there's always the window around day 11-13 that we can look forward to.  

[Ralph Wiggum]

29 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm with you on this one. Any slight hope I had yesterday is gone.  

Is it too late to throw in the towel on winter or would that be like the boxer's trainer who tries to throw the towel while his prize fighter is laying on the mat in the 11th round with an 8 count??

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

You mean this bomb....it should stir the atmosphere up some for sure. Definitely good points Scraff.

Could something like that truly have a chance of changing the setup for next week? (Has that happened before, where the models show one thing LR, something like that happens and then it looks different?

[Wonderdog]

Thought somebody said the Euro 500 Maps look better than its 0z. UKMET looks to be close to something interesting. Now's not the time to jump ship. Give it till tomorrow afternoon. 

[cae]

UKMET precipitation day 4.

[kurtstack]

I'm with you on this one. Any slight hope I had yesterday is gone.  

gefs e11 shows southern stream slower and hanging back and northern stream zipping out of the way. Has 0 other support but that would be one potential way it could work lol.


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[showmethesnow]

No improvement for day 4 on the EPS. Still dead as a door nail.

[CAPE]

Fourth straight brutal EPS run for those looking for snow chances. Just nothing there. I guess enjoy the upcoming warmth and maybe March will deliver? lol

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Fourth straight brutal EPS run for those looking for snow chances. Just nothing there. I guess enjoy the upcoming warmth and maybe March will deliver? lol

Even though I shouldn't ask, but what kind of snow is the Euro spitting out for Boston over the next week?

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Even though I shouldn't ask, but what kind of snow is the Euro spitting out for Boston over the next week?

Much of NE gets hammered. Mean snowfall for Boston over the next 7 days looks like a foot or so. Better N and NW of there.

[CAPE]

If I didn't have to work I would take a trip to NH. I have a friend up there a few miles se of Mt Washington. 3 feet looks realistic over the next week.

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Much of NE gets hammered. Mean snowfall for Boston over the next 7 days looks like a foot or so. Better N and NW of there.

K thanks. 

Well, easy come,  easy go. 12z GEFS & GEPS lost their positive looks. Happy Spring! Lol

Next year. ..next year. 

[eurojosh]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

K thanks. 

Well, easy come,  easy go. 12z GEFS & GEPS lost their positive looks. Happy Spring! Lol

Next year. ..next year. 

We had a good run...

[psuhoffman]

I see nothing that looks promising at this time. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Well folks: We registered three consecutive winters of above average snowfall (despite it all coming at once last year). We shoulda expected we were gonna have to pay for it eventually, lol So I take it not even a phantom day 10-15 to chase?

[CAPE]

Quite a pressure gradient. We do wind real good lol. Love that cold, dry wind.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Well folks: We registered three consecutive winters of above average snowfall (despite it all coming at once last year). We shoulda expected we were gonna have to pay for it eventually, lol So I take it not even a phantom day 10-15 to chase?

Nada. Something unexpected could pop up in the short range, but the best shot of that would be this week, and there are no signs of that. Beyond that, embrace the warm ridge. Later in the period, days 11-15, the ensembles are steadily moving away from the big epo ridge/eastern trough idea. Trending more towards a less than ideal AK ridge placement, and a western trough. GEFS isn't awful..yet. But clearly moving towards the EPS.

[RDM]

NWS posted a HWW for the Was/Bal area for Monday 0100 to 1300 local.  Gusts to 60.  Fringe effects of the NE bomb no doubt.  A bit unusual to get a HWW this far in advance.  Could be interesting commute Monday AM throughout the region.  Widespread guest to 60 is gonna raise havoc with power. 

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Nada. Something unexpected could pop up in the short range, but the best shot of that would be this week, and there are no signs of that. Beyond that, embrace the warm ridge. Later in the period, days 11-15, the ensembles are steadily moving away from the big epo ridge/eastern trough idea. Trending more towards a less than ideal AK ridge placement, and a western trough. GEFS isn't awful..yet. But clearly moving towards the EPS.

So basically the same crap setup we've had most of the winter? Smh....So essentially, the threat for next week we were watching was derailed by that stupid Low up north? Wow...

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

17 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Nada. Something unexpected could pop up in the short range, but the best shot of that would be this week, and there are no signs of that. Beyond that, embrace the warm ridge. Later in the period, days 11-15, the ensembles are steadily moving away from the big epo ridge/eastern trough idea. Trending more towards a less than ideal AK ridge placement, and a western trough. GEFS isn't awful..yet. But clearly moving towards the EPS.

Yeah it sorta feels like this week is our last shot, but I guess we did have some good events in late feb and march in 2015. 

[CAPE]

47 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Yeah it sorta feels like this week is our last shot, but I guess we did have some good events in late feb and march in 2015. 

The ensembles have not exactly been stellar beyond day 10. But when they trend away from what was a good look, towards essentially more of the same old crap, its more believable. Still a chance at a fluke event the end of the month or early March. This week is going to suck though. New England gets pummeled with 2 heavy snow events, and we get a little rain and possibly 2 high wind warnings.

[peribonca]

Hope the blizzard tomorrow in new England strengthens enough to slow the following northern stream wave andhelp a partial phase to happen. 18z gfs looked a bit closer to my untrained eye.

[CAPE]

Fwiw the 18z GEFS still holds "some" promise days 10-15. There is a transient trough in the east with some EPO ridging(muted from previous runs), before the heights begin to build in the GOA and the western trough re-emerges. Looking at the members, there are a decent number that have storminess during this window, and some look to be snow or mixed events. The snowfall mean modestly increases during this period.

[mitchnick]

21 minutes ago, peribonca said:

Hope the blizzard tomorrow in new England strengthens enough to slow the following northern stream wave andhelp a partial phase to happen. 18z gfs looked a bit closer to my untrained eye.

 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Fwiw the 18z GEFS still holds "some" promise days 10-15. There is a transient trough in the east with some EPO ridging(muted from previous runs), before the heights begin to build in the GOA and the western trough re-emerges. Looking at the members, there are a decent number that have storminess during this window, and some look to be snow or mixed events. The snowfall mean modestly increases during this period.

All year I have found the GEPS to be way more subdued with the threats and it has certainly been proven better than GEFS from what I've seen. Here's the GEPS at day 10. Advance it forward through the end and you can see how relatively bleak it is.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens&region=namer&pkg=T850a&runtime=2017021112&fh=264

[CAPE]

13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

All year I have found the GEPS to be way more subdued with the threats and it has certainly been proven better than GEFS from what I've seen. Here's the GEPS at day 10. Advance it forward through the end and you can see how relatively bleak it is.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens&region=namer&pkg=T850a&runtime=2017021112&fh=264

Yup, much more like the EPS. As I said in an earlier post, its pretty clear where this is headed. GEFS has always looked better for the Feb 22- 26th period. As of now its still decent, but not nearly as good as it looked at say 0z Thursday for that period. I am not very optimistic, just stating what I see.

[psuhoffman]

27 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

All year I have found the GEPS to be way more subdued with the threats and it has certainly been proven better than GEFS from what I've seen. Here's the GEPS at day 10. Advance it forward through the end and you can see how relatively bleak it is.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens&region=namer&pkg=T850a&runtime=2017021112&fh=264

The 18z Gefs is marginally better and several hits did show up. But the majority still show nothing and I'd be skeptical too. Need to see way more support before getting excited. 

That said the geps have been verifying pretty bad.  They totally missed the pattern this week. Just because it didn't snow or won't snow doesn't mean the pattern didn't change.  We did get cold and periods with some threat windows mid December, early January, and recently. They haven't worked out but the geps has been missing the h5 pattern flips badly all winter.  

Your probably right the long range doesn't look great but I've started ignoring the geps it's been so hopelessly bad this winter honestly.   Also why link the temps and not h5?  Can't tell as much about the overall pattern just from the temp Anom. Sometimes a storm signal can be hiding within a not great looking temp profile.  Especially with timing differences at those ranges washing out details.  It's not in this case but often is.

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The 18z Gefs is marginally better and several hits did show up. But the majority still show nothing and I'd be skeptical too. Need to see way more support before getting excited. 

That said the geps have been verifying pretty bad.  They totally missed the pattern this week. Just because it didn't snow or won't snow doesn't mean the pattern didn't change.  We did get cold and periods with some threat windows mid December, early January, and recently. They haven't worked out but the geps has been missing the h5 pattern flips badly all winter.  

Your probably right the long range doesn't look great but I've started ignoring the geps it's been so hopelessly bad this winter honestly.   Also why link the temps and not h5?  Can't tell as much about the overall pattern just from the temp Anom. Sometimes a storm signal can be hiding within a not great looking temp profile.  Especially with timing differences at those ranges washing out details.  It's not in this case but often is.

Well, they've been generally correct with our snow chances, and that's really all I'm interested in. Like I said earlier today,  we've lacked consensus (and what I mean is reasonable consensus) among the models for snow. And that's what I like to see usually before getting excited. But,  we're not NE and 3 years in a row of AN snowfall at the 3 airports is the best we've ever done, so on to next year barring a miracle this week or a fluke in the long run.

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

 

He's right tho...it did get a littler closer.  Look at the 5h vort map and compare it to past runs.  Of course, it doesn't matter because we still get zilch.