BTRWx Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 1 hour ago, midatlanticweather said: A lot of the above statements are not based on any scientific reason! If, however, you tacked it back to something that would dominate the pattern, then I would agree. This year, to me, the killer was the PV in Alaska. It killed the Pacific and set up (warm water blob) the whole winter for fail. We had a few breakdowns of the Pacific dominance, but they were brief. Blocking has been transient when it happened and models really misled us with their ideas of anything in the longer term. Faster flow, little blocking and it all has to be perfect, thread the needle, circumstantial luck. We have not been lucky this year! ^That gets my vote for post of the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 13 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Ncep tools http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/model_guidance.php http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/model_guidance.php?dayin=11 Much appreciated for sharing that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: As of this date it's the worst since 1973 which was right with 1951 I think as our worst winters coming in with around 3". If we get a few more inches we can pass 2002 which had more as of this date but had no more snow the rest of the way. But those 3 are by far this areas worst 3 in 122 years of records I put together. None others come close. Their the only 3 to finish below 10" and I don't think any others were even close. Most of our other "bad years" come in around 18-25". Even 2012 we scraped to 19". 2013 we managed to get to 30. Getting below 18" here is a very rare 1/20 year winter. Where do you get all that data? I checked the info for the Millers, MD station, but that only goes back to the late 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 You know the GFS has nothing when it is not even mentioned during the model run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: You know the GFS has nothing when it is not even mentioned during the model run... Waiting on the GEFS! GFS = BORING! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: You know the GFS has nothing when it is not even mentioned during the model run... As far as next week goes, it's been absolutely frozen on the same exact solution...EURO is just showin' something weird. Beyond that, GFS is another batch of misses, smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 28 minutes ago, Fozz said: Where do you get all that data? I checked the info for the Millers, MD station, but that only goes back to the late 80s. I cobbled it together using different local coop data from different locations across the area. Some years I had to use northern Westminster coop. There was a coop on backmans valley that has data off and on. A few years I used the south Hanover coop that's about 5 miles north of me. It took forever and I did the best I could. It's not official of course and if anything it might skew my numbers low since Manchester is a local max so using Westminster and Hanover some of those years might be a little low but it gives a general idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 back to the long range again - but gefs hints at a potential pattern reload which could provide one last shot toward the end of feb beginning of march. Perhaps its just my inner weenie but I still think we get a moderate 3"+ storm before the door closes for good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 True sign that this winter is over-----the medium/long range thread is filled with posts speculating on what made this winter so bad. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, kurtstack said: back to the long range again - but gefs hints at a potential pattern reload which could provide one last shot toward the end of feb beginning of march. Perhaps its just my inner weenie but I still think we get a moderate 3"+ storm before the door closes for good. I would think a pattern reload would be the worst thing we could get. Which pattern brought us snow? Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 I would think a pattern reload would be the worst thing we could get. Which pattern brought us snow? Exactly.just because the pattern didnt produce doesnt mean it wasnt a good pattern lol. I understand your frustration though.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Pretty big difference at 500 (96 hr.) between Ukie and gfs. Ukie looks to leave the door open for us for a small chance to score in this period. wow thats pretty nice you can really see the trof digging down behind that southern low and further west while the gfs doesnt dig that trof at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Ukmet is MUCH better than GFS for that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Keep the positives coming guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: It sure is ...but gefs ensembles don't look to support at all. Curious to see euro ......it's had a similar look. One member has a miller A, a big snowstorm up the east coast. A bit too much perturbation perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: It sure is ...but gefs ensembles don't look to support at all. Curious to see euro ......it's had a similar look. GEFS usually sticks close to the operational it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Just one thing I keep hearing. This NE blizzard Sunday/Monday will help set us up for later week. Once that storm is out of the way, potential later week outcomes for us may really start to pop quick on all the ops. Anyway--something to think about and hope for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 GEFS member e11 and call it a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 28 minutes ago, kurtstack said: back to the long range again - but gefs hints at a potential pattern reload which could provide one last shot toward the end of feb beginning of march. Perhaps its just my inner weenie but I still think we get a moderate 3"+ storm before the door closes for good. Gefs is definitely workable long range. I'm just getting weary of the chase. I see nothing overly hostile about it. We could still score a hit in that look. The North Pacific seems to want to help us out a bit. We've done well that way lately. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Just now, psuhoffman said: Gefs is definitely workable long range. I'm just getting weary of the chase. I see nothing overly hostile about it. We could still score a hit in that look. The North Pacific seems to want to help us out a bit. We've done well that way lately. We will see. Actually like the look around day 11-13. But we have been there, done that so often this year I don't think i have the energy to care anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 18 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Pretty big difference at 500 (96 hr.) between Ukie and gfs. Ukie looks to leave the door open for us for a small chance to score in this period. I was about to post about that only to find that you beat me to it. Posters on this forum don't miss much. At 120, the GFS has two lows, one off the coast of Maine and the other off the SE coast. The Ukie only has one low off the coast of Maine, and it's much deeper than the one on the GFS. I wonder how it got there. http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?mod=gfs&run=12&stn=PNM&hh=120&map=na&stn2=PNM&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&hh2=120&comp=2&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo The GGEM looks like something between the Ukie and the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 It would seem there is some potential d11-14. Looks like beyond that there is a shift in AK ridge position and a trough digs out west. Looks familiar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Did the Euro take a step back or basically show the same thing it's been showing? Same with the phasing or later? Can't tell with the 24 maps on TT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Did the Euro take a step back or basically show the same thing it's been showing? Same with the phasing or later? Can't tell with the 24 maps on TT. If it was good it would have been posted. I assume it's still a miss for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 At 102 a low is off cape hatteras but it slides east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: At 102 a low is off cape hatteras but it slides east. Is it worse than 0z with the phasing north of us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: If it was good it would have been posted. I assume it's still a miss for us. Drops the PV lobe a little farther south this run. Runs it through central PA instead of on the PA/NY line. Probably to much to ask but would love to see that somehow find a way underneath us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Just now, showmethesnow said: Drops the PV lobe a little farther south this run. Runs it through central PA instead of on the PA/NY line. Probably to much to ask but would love to see that somehow find a way underneath us. Yeah I noticed that too, but overall its not much different from the previous run. Still lots of work to do for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah I noticed that too, but overall its not much different from the previous run. Still lots of work to do for our area. Short of that running underneath of us I think this is pretty much dead in the water. Don't see any other solutions at this point that would work short of the 500's being off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 I thought the Euro looked slightly worse but that's just my untrained eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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