February Medium/Long Range Disco Thread 2

[psuhoffman]

This looks like April not February 

[Interstate]

Must have been a great euro run

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

39 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said:

Must have been a great euro run

It still tries to form a low off the coast around 114, but it happens a little to late for us.  

[mitchnick]

Assuming that we miss this one, it looks like we have a week,  give or take, of spring. Then the stuff I've looked at shows a trough in the means developing in the SE. It seems that would be beginning of the end of winter.  The silver lining is that the GEFS, less so the GEPS, and more so the CFS2 weeklies all show below normal temps and above normal precip from the SE and the MA. This is what I've been waiting for,  consensus of long range guidance.  That's probably what DT may be talking about, but I haven't seen or read anything from him only what was posted in this thread. That said, I don't know what the EPS show after the torch, so it would be nice if they concur. 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Assuming that we miss this one, it looks like we have a week,  give or take, of spring. Then the stuff I've looked at shows a trough in the means developing in the SE. It seems that would be beginning of the end of winter.  The silver lining is that the GEFS, less so the GEPS, and more so the CFS2 weeklies all show below normal temps and above normal precip from the SE and the MA. This is what I've been waiting for,  consensus of long range guidance.  That's probably what DT may be talking about, but I haven't seen or read anything from him only what was posted in this thread. That said, I don't know what the EPS show after the torch, so it would be nice if they concur. 

EPS weeklies dump the trough into the west and get it stuck there. Eastern ridge straight through. But they have been flipping back and forth between that and the trough in the east run to run. 

[mdsnowlover]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Assuming that we miss this one, it looks like we have a week,  give or take, of spring. Then the stuff I've looked at shows a trough in the means developing in the SE. It seems that would be beginning of the end of winter.  The silver lining is that the GEFS, less so the GEPS, and more so the CFS2 weeklies all show below normal temps and above normal precip from the SE and the MA. This is what I've been waiting for,  consensus of long range guidance.  That's probably what DT may be talking about, but I haven't seen or read anything from him only what was posted in this thread. That said, I don't know what the EPS show after the torch, so it would be nice if they concur. 

could also be what joe d'aleo was referring to when he commented phase 2 of mjo is precip,bn temp for MA. At thos point the mjo gives NORTHEASTb 3 storms that miss us, Bernie rayno explained in his video how we, here, can get a storm this week. not real likely. Your finding is probably right

[psuhoffman]

22 minutes ago, mdsnowlover said:

could also be what joe d'aleo was referring to when he commented phase 2 of mjo is precip,bn temp for MA. At thos point the mjo gives NORTHEASTb 3 storms that miss us, Bernie rayno explained in his video how we, here, can get a storm this week. not real likely. Your finding is probably right

There isn't much indication the mjo will make it to phase 2. It spikes into 8 then fades towards the COD. It may make it into 1 barely before dying. Imo it's discouraging that when the mjo spikes to record levels in 8 we do get an eastern trough for several days but the minute the mjo wave starts to fade, before it's even back to the COD but simply not at record levels, the pattern degrades again.  If the base state is that hostile that we need the mjo to be at record levels to help at all (the last mjo wave through good phases in January did nothing for us we torched most of it) then we're pretty screwed. 

Its possible the mjo spiking through warm phases muted the effects of the strat warm and now it spikes into cold but dies leaving us back in the crappy base state we had before. 

On the bright side the pattern long range is muddy. Not good but not awful. I suppose we can still root for a last second fluke to save winter. 

[mdsnowlover]

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There isn't much indication the mjo will make it to phase 2. It spikes into 8 then fades towards the COD. It may make it into 1 barely before dying. Imo it's discouraging that when the mjo spikes to record levels in 8 we do get an eastern trough for several days but the minute the mjo wave starts to fade, before it's even back to the COD but simply not at record levels, the pattern degrades again.  If the base state is that hostile that we need the mjo to be at record levels to help at all (the last mjo wave through good phases in January did nothing for us we torched most of it) then we're pretty screwed. 

Its possible the mjo spiking through warm phases muted the effects of the strat warm and now it spikes into cold but dies leaving us back in the crappy base state we had before. 

On the bright side the pattern long range is muddy. Not good but not awful. I suppose we can still root for a last second fluke to save winter. 

yes psu your quite right in your assertions, i was just trying to offer another professional opinion about what may happen, from someone supposedly very respected in the profession.

[dallen7908]

Feb 25 to Mar 10 forecast discussion led by Stephen Baxter of NCEP:

"The MJO is currently active and could influence the extratropical circulation into early March. ... Statistical forecasts based on this predictor yield a cold outcome over much of the CONUS; however, this would be in stark contrast to the current Week-2 outlook, which favors above-normal temperatures over the central and eastern CONUS. The constructed analog based on 200-hPa streamfunction also favors a cold outcome over much of central North America, but the upstream pattern over the North Pacific is distinct from a canonical MJO response."

Based on that NCEP gives us a 55-60% chance of above normal temperatures (40-45% chance of below-normal temperatures) and a 50-55% chance of above normal precipitation (2-categories for precip too). 

So it looks like any big (likely rain) storm on the 22/23rd could usher in spring, but signals are mixed. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There isn't much indication the mjo will make it to phase 2. It spikes into 8 then fades towards the COD. It may make it into 1 barely before dying. Imo it's discouraging that when the mjo spikes to record levels in 8 we do get an eastern trough for several days but the minute the mjo wave starts to fade, before it's even back to the COD but simply not at record levels, the pattern degrades again.  If the base state is that hostile that we need the mjo to be at record levels to help at all (the last mjo wave through good phases in January did nothing for us we torched most of it) then we're pretty screwed. 

Its possible the mjo spiking through warm phases muted the effects of the strat warm and now it spikes into cold but dies leaving us back in the crappy base state we had before. 

On the bright side the pattern long range is muddy. Not good but not awful. I suppose we can still root for a last second fluke to save winter. 

There's almost zero chance of "saving" this winter.  A couple of snows ain't gonna do it.  

 

[CAPE]

21 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

There's almost zero chance of "saving" this winter.  A couple of snows ain't gonna do it.  

 

Winter is beyond saving. A decent event or 2 could save the DC-BWI area from complete futility.

[mdsnowlover]

23 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

There's almost zero chance of "saving" this winter.  A couple of snows ain't gonna do it.  

 

it appears, by the ncep statement 22-23 is rain, thats 2 weeks from now, winter is about over, getting one snowfall is going to be difficult at best, seems psu's evaluation regareding MJO is correct. I,m not forecasting, just conjecturing

[psuhoffman]

27 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

There's almost zero chance of "saving" this winter.  A couple of snows ain't gonna do it.  

 

For me it depends on what those "couple of snows" are.  If they are a couple of 1-3" snows I won't really feel any better.  But if I can pull of say a 6" and a 4" snow in late feb and march or one 8"+ for example, I will feel better. Yea I would still be under 50% climo and It will still be on the list of bad years but it would make it off my total fail "wish it had never happened" list. 

I try to be reasonable in my expectations so I'm not disappointed half the time. Keep in mind my location makes reasonable different. But I figured out I would be disappointed way too much where I was but didn't want to leave the entire region so found a spot that worked. 

I look for either a period of decent snow and snowcover, or one or two memorable storms and say ok that was worth it. That way I'm not let down more then 1/10 years. If I started throwing every winter where all we got was one decent event or a very short period of good winter into the trash if be throwing away 30-40% of our winters. Then I might as well move again to New Hampshire or something (which we may end up doing anyways if I lose my position here due to the Baltimore city budget crisis) because that's too frustrating to be unhappy with a whole winter that often.  

[mdsnowlover]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

For me it depends on what those "couple of snows" are.  If they are a couple of 1-3" snows I won't really feel any better.  But if I can pull of say a 6" and a 4" snow in late feb and march or one 8"+ for example, I will feel better. Yea I would still be under 50% climo and It will still be on the list of bad years but it would make it off my total fail "wish it had never happened" list. 

I try to be reasonable in my expectations so I'm not disappointed half the time. Keep in mind my location makes reasonable different. But I figured out I would be disappointed way too much where I was but didn't want to leave the entire region so found a spot that worked. 

I look for either a period of decent snow and snowcover, or one or two memorable storms and say ok that was worth it. That way I'm not let down more then 1/10 years. If I started throwing every winter where all we got was one decent event or a very short period of good winter into the trash if be throwing away 30-40% of our winters. Then I might as well move again to New Hampshire or something (which we may end up doing anyways if I lose my position here due to the Baltimore city budget crisis) because that's too frustrating to be unhappy with a whole winter that often.  

normally I would agree with your assessment here, as I have found that maryland usually gets one snow per wintet, of at least 4 inches, and as your time in maryland increases you come to find that, occassionally it wont snow here for whatever reason, as mitch has stated.Your evaluations are spot on , but as this year is starting to prove this is one year it probably wont snow. As you get older you just accept what become obvious. Also bob chills comments have proven valuable too

[mdsnowlover]

one last note, to me, the signal that this winter wasnt going to produce, was the first ice event we had, and then following the various model runs and how the storm tracks set up, it became obvious that we were going to be missed by snow. The first ice event brought up memories of ice winter in 93-94, and incredible siberian air masses we experienced. It was truly the worst winter of my lifetime, as I worked in the pentagon and had the long drive. No matter what the various ensembles presented here, or computer models said we were continually missed. After a while you know it just isnt going to happen. Just my 2 cents.

[WinterWxLuvr]

24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

For me it depends on what those "couple of snows" are.  If they are a couple of 1-3" snows I won't really feel any better.  But if I can pull of say a 6" and a 4" snow in late feb and march or one 8"+ for example, I will feel better. Yea I would still be under 50% climo and It will still be on the list of bad years but it would make it off my total fail "wish it had never happened" list. 

I try to be reasonable in my expectations so I'm not disappointed half the time. Keep in mind my location makes reasonable different. But I figured out I would be disappointed way too much where I was but didn't want to leave the entire region so found a spot that worked. 

I look for either a period of decent snow and snowcover, or one or two memorable storms and say ok that was worth it. That way I'm not let down more then 1/10 years. If I started throwing every winter where all we got was one decent event or a very short period of good winter into the trash if be throwing away 30-40% of our winters. Then I might as well move again to New Hampshire or something (which we may end up doing anyways if I lose my position here due to the Baltimore city budget crisis) because that's too frustrating to be unhappy with a whole winter that often.  

Yeah, if we were to get the snow events you speak of, I'd feel better myself.

I don't really have but two categories that I can use, bad or good.  I've lived here for 9 winters.  I'd put 08/09, 11/12, 15/16, and this one in the bad categories.  The rest I'd be ok calling good.

Too much of this one is gone.  It would take a 5 week period like 93 to make me change my mind.

[Interstate]

5 minutes ago, mdsnowlover said:

one last note, to me, the signal that this winter wasnt going to produce, was the first ice event we had, and then following the various model runs and how the storm tracks set up, it became obvious that we were going to be missed by snow. The first ice event brought up memories of ice winter in 93-94, and incredible siberian air masses we experienced. It was truly the worst winter of my lifetime, as I worked in the pentagon and had the long drive. No matter what the various ensembles presented here, or computer models said we were continually missed. After a while you know it just isnt going to happen. Just my 2 cents.

I find a lot of times how the storm tracks set up in late November and early December will dictate our winters.

[mdsnowlover]

1 minute ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said:

I find a lot of times how the storm tracks set up in late November and early December will dictate our winters.

exactly, good comment and observation, I look for the first rain coastal, as that sets up the track for our best snows

[midatlanticweather]

A lot of the above statements are not based on any scientific reason! If, however, you tacked it back to something that would dominate the pattern, then I would agree. This year, to me, the killer was the PV in Alaska. It killed the Pacific and set up (warm water blob) the whole winter for fail. We had a few breakdowns of the Pacific dominance, but they were brief. Blocking has been transient when it happened and models really misled us with their ideas of anything in the longer term. Faster flow, little blocking and it all has to be perfect, thread the needle, circumstantial luck. We have not been lucky this year!

 

[Bob Chill]

I disagree with the winter personality thing.  We've endured many a bad pattern before the window opened. We also have had hot starts only to end up with early spring. It's been a while but there are plenty of cases of early starts and crappy finishes. 

With that being said, this winter fits perfectly with the basic AO theory. Big +AO Decembers normally lead to low snowfall winters. Here we are. We can analyze all kinds of things to come up with the same conclusion. I'll stick with the AO Dec principal. When Dec comes in above 1 (especially 1.5) we're in trouble. We discussed this back in Dec but it was too early to declare a wall to wall +AO on the means. 

We beat the odds a couple times recently with the ao but that doesn't change the statistical importance of -AO = good snow chances and +AO = bad snow chances. 

However, there are cases when a big +ao Dec does flip down the line. Usually Feb. That typically comes with a decent winter period including snow here. Didn't happen this year. This winter is a classic +AO dud made worse by missing out on the few chances we had. 

 

[mdsnowlover]

8 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

A lot of the above statements are not based on any scientific reason! If, however, you tacked it back to something that would dominate the pattern, then I would agree. This year, to me, the killer was the PV in Alaska. It killed the Pacific and set up the whole winter for fail. We had a few breakdowns of the Pacific dominance, but they were brief. Blocking has been transient when it happened and models really misled us with their ideas of anything in the longer term. Faster flow, little blocking and it all has to be perfect, thread the needle, circumstantial luck. We have not been lucky this year!

 

in our area, after every winter season, if its especially different, like ice storms instead of snow, the NWS prints in washington post an explanation of what caused the unusual winter. IN the case of ice year, it seems that there was a low, situated right near hudson bay, and if it had been stationed 20 miles farther east we would have gotten snow rather than ice. I,m not versed on upper air patterns like many here, but ice the first event can signal that the global pattern is not good, in this year very true, as you point out. TYVM

[psuhoffman]

There is a difference between seeing the signs that the year will be a struggle and the pattern won't be good and the year being a total dud like this one might. We knew early this was likely a bad year. But just because the storm track is bad in November or december you can't predict the year will be a 1973 or 2002 type waste.   A lot of winters we only get a small period of winter weather and it comes after December. So I agree the early signs pointed towards a bad year. But I'm sorry, people can argue all they want based on memory, but our actual snowfall records going back 120 years do not support the claim that we can call a winter dead on arrival based on lack of snow in the first half. 

The stats do support that a bad start increases the odds of a below climo winter, that's kinda obvious. And the longer you go without snow of course stacks the odds that it could be one of those 1/10 total dud winters. But even if we get to feb with almost no snow the data still says we have a better then 50/50 chance of getting at least 5"+ in Baltimore the rest of the way. 

That said we're now at feb 11 and nothing is on sight and the pattern looks average at best in the long term so the odds this year turns out to be a fail are now going up fast.  But people said this same crap in 1995, 1997, 1999, 2007, and 2015 then we got snow late. And in 2006 I remember "oh it was a one week winter in December and it's over" then we got a foot in feb. this year it might finally work out for the "it's over because it didn't snow early" predictions but to me it's kinda like a broken clock is right twice a day. 

[midatlanticweather]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I disagree with the winter personality thing.  We've endured many a bad pattern before the window opened. We also have had hot starts only to end up with early spring. It's been a while but there are plenty of cases of early starts and crappy finishes. 

With that being said, this winter fits perfectly with the basic AO theory. Big +AO Decembers normally lead to low snowfall winters. Here we are. We can analyze all kinds of things to come up with the same conclusion. I'll stick with the AO Dec principal. When Dec comes in above 1 (especially 1.5) we're in trouble. We discussed this back in Dec but it was too early to declare a wall to wall +AO on the means. 

We beat the odds a couple times recently with the ao but that doesn't change the statistical importance of -AO = good snow chances and +AO = bad snow chances. 

However, there are cases when a big +ao Dec does flip down the line. Usually Feb. That typically comes with a decent winter period including snow here. Didn't happen this year. This winter is a classic +AO dud made worse by missing out on the few chances we had. 

 

 

Even a better point! Agree Bob! I think the rest of stuff is a play out of what that brings! 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Yeah, if we were to get the snow events you speak of, I'd feel better myself.

I don't really have but two categories that I can use, bad or good.  I've lived here for 9 winters.  I'd put 08/09, 11/12, 15/16, and this one in the bad categories.  The rest I'd be ok calling good.

Too much of this one is gone.  It would take a 5 week period like 93 to make me change my mind.

I've been here since summer of 2001.  For me, the "top three" (bottom 3?) awful years would have to be 2001-02, 2011-12, and 2007-08.  Maybe '08-09 would be close, as would '12-13.  To be truly one of the awful winters, it not only has to be nearly devoid of snow, but also consistently warm with very few (if any) cold periods.  And little to nothing very good to track.  '08-09 is a tough call, but at least that had some cold, there were some things I recall worth tracking in February (that didn't work), and the early March storm/cold kind of salvaged it somewhat from my "truly bad" list.  Same for last year, '15-16...I know that was a sort of "one hit wonder", but what a hell of a hit it was!  I'd give almost anything to experience the week leading up to the blizzard again.  Besides the awful blowtorch in December, we had seriously legit cold in January and even the first part of February.  Beyond the blizzard, we had some trackable events in February last year, a couple were duds but one of them gave us an interesting snow/ice situation around Presidents' Day (even if it disappeared the following day, haha!).

If this winter doesn't give us a late game score, it will have to make my list, probably deposing '07-08.  The warmth this winter has been remarkably consistent, despite a couple of brief cold periods.  Checking some of the monthly climate data, December was on the order of +2, January +6, and so far February stands at +6.

[HighStakes]

4 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

I've been here since summer of 2001.  For me, the "top three" (bottom 3?) awful years would have to be 2001-02, 2011-12, and 2007-08.  Maybe '08-09 would be close, as would '12-13.  To be truly one of the awful winters, it not only has to be nearly devoid of snow, but also consistently warm with very few (if any) cold periods.  And little to nothing very good to track.  '08-09 is a tough call, but at least that had some cold, there were some things I recall worth tracking in February (that didn't work), and the early March storm/cold kind of salvaged it somewhat from my "truly bad" list.  Same for last year, '15-16...I know that was a sort of "one hit wonder", but what a hell of a hit it was!  I'd give almost anything to experience the week leading up to the blizzard again.  Besides the awful blowtorch in December, we had seriously legit cold in January and even the first part of February.  Beyond the blizzard, we had some trackable events in February last year, a couple were duds but one of them gave us an interesting snow/ice situation around Presidents' Day (even if it disappeared the following day, haha!).

If this winter doesn't give us a late game score, it will have to make my list, probably deposing '07-08.  The warmth this winter has been remarkably consistent, despite a couple of brief cold periods.  Checking some of the monthly climate data, December was on the order of +2, January +6, and so far February stands at +6.

The warmth has been crazy. For me and psuhoffman and the other northern tier crew this has been the worst winter in the last 25 years up to this date by far and it's not even close. I haven't lookrd at the records but this may be the lowest snow total to date for this area going back 60 or 70 years.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There is a difference between seeing the signs that the year will be a struggle and the pattern won't be good and the year being a total dud like this one might. We knew early this was likely a bad year. But just because the storm track is bad in November or december you can't predict the year will be a 1973 or 2002 type waste.   A lot of winters we only get a small period of winter weather and it comes after December. So I agree the early signs pointed towards a bad year. But I'm sorry, people can argue all they want based on memory, but our actual snowfall records going back 120 years do not support the claim that we can call a winter dead on arrival based on lack of snow in the first half. 

The stats do support that a bad start increases the odds of a below climo winter, that's kinda obvious. And the longer you go without snow of course stacks the odds that it could be one of those 1/10 total dud winters. But even if we get to feb with almost no snow the data still says we have a better then 50/50 chance of getting at least 5"+ in Baltimore the rest of the way. 

That said we're now at feb 11 and nothing is on sight and the pattern looks average at best in the long term so the odds this year turns out to be a fail are now going up fast.  But people said this same crap in 1995, 1997, 1999, 2007, and 2015 then we got snow late. And in 2006 I remember "oh it was a one week winter in December and it's over" then we got a foot in feb. this year it might finally work out for the "it's over because it didn't snow early" predictions but to me it's kinda like a broken clock is right twice a day. 

Good points.  I think you had mentioned some time back that there is a real difference between a "meh, not so good" winter and a true dud devoid of anything.  Getting the true duds is not all that common, really (the 1 in 10 you talked about)...getting a bunch of "meh" winters salvaged only by one or two solid events is quite common.  I agree that this year may well be fast approaching the list of infamy if nothing changes!

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

The warmth has been crazy. For me and psuhoffman and the other northern tier crew this has been the worst winter in the last 25 years up to this date by far and it's not even close. I haven't lookrd at the records but this may be the lowest snow total to date for this area going back 60 or 70 years.

Yeah, I'd have to look more closely at the records for the DC area.  2011-12 was warm, but at least I recall we did have a week period that was colder and we got a couple of small clipper systems in January.  That was it, pretty much.  2001-02 was likewise warm, and I think it had just one single day (at DCA) with a max temperature 32 or lower.  But I'm not sure how this year stacks up overall compared to those two, in terms of consistency of warmth.  As for low snow totals to this point, it surely has to be up there for this area.

[WinterWxLuvr]

29 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

I've been here since summer of 2001.  For me, the "top three" (bottom 3?) awful years would have to be 2001-02, 2011-12, and 2007-08.  Maybe '08-09 would be close, as would '12-13.  To be truly one of the awful winters, it not only has to be nearly devoid of snow, but also consistently warm with very few (if any) cold periods.  And little to nothing very good to track.  '08-09 is a tough call, but at least that had some cold, there were some things I recall worth tracking in February (that didn't work), and the early March storm/cold kind of salvaged it somewhat from my "truly bad" list.  Same for last year, '15-16...I know that was a sort of "one hit wonder", but what a hell of a hit it was!  I'd give almost anything to experience the week leading up to the blizzard again.  Besides the awful blowtorch in December, we had seriously legit cold in January and even the first part of February.  Beyond the blizzard, we had some trackable events in February last year, a couple were duds but one of them gave us an interesting snow/ice situation around Presidents' Day (even if it disappeared the following day, haha!).

If this winter doesn't give us a late game score, it will have to make my list, probably deposing '07-08.  The warmth this winter has been remarkably consistent, despite a couple of brief cold periods.  Checking some of the monthly climate data, December was on the order of +2, January +6, and so far February stands at +6.

There is no "we".

There was no March 09 storm here.  There were no trackable events here last year other than the big storm.

[WVclimo]

A single-digit snowfall season isn't unusual in my 54th winter in the mid-Atlantic.  It's actually been pretty common.  These are the snowfall totals in my back yard including: 1963-1982 in western Md., 1982-2006 in the Md suburbs of DC, and since 2006 in WV.

80"+ seasons: 1 (09-10)
70"-80" seasons: 0
60"-70" seasons: 2 (69-70, 95-96)
50"-60" seasons: 4 (63-64, 77-78, 02-03, 13-14)
40"-50" seasons: 5 (65-66, 67-68, 70-71, 81-82, 15-16)
30"-40" seasons: 7 (64-65, 71-72, 74-75, 78-79, 82-83, 86-87, 14-15)
20"-30" seasons: 10 (66-67, 73-74, 76-77, 79-80, 87-88, 92-93, 99-00, 06-07, 10-11, 12-13)
10"-20" seasons: 14 (68-69, 75-76, 80-81, 83-84, 84-85, 85-86, 89-90, 93-94, 96-97, 98-99, 03-04, 04-05, 05-06, 07-08)
Less than 10" seasons: 10 (72-73, 88-89, 90-91, 91-92, 94-95, 97-98, 00-01, 01-02, 08-09, 11-12)

[psuhoffman]

31 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

The warmth has been crazy. For me and psuhoffman and the other northern tier crew this has been the worst winter in the last 25 years up to this date by far and it's not even close. I haven't lookrd at the records but this may be the lowest snow total to date for this area going back 60 or 70 years.

As of this date it's the worst since 1973 which was right with 1951 I think as our worst winters coming in with around 3". If we get a few more inches we can pass 2002 which had more as of this date but had no more snow the rest of the way. But those 3 are by far this areas worst 3 in 122 years of records I put together.   None others come close. Their the only 3 to finish below 10" and I don't think any others were even close. Most of our other "bad years" come in around 18-25". Even 2012 we scraped to 19". 2013 we managed to get to 30. Getting below 18" here is a very rare 1/20 year winter.