Ji Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 On 2/11/2017 at 12:27 AM, mitchnick said: Don't forget every operational other than the Euro. Otoh, the contrarian would say "time to buy in." Sooooo.... Expand JMA shows the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 On 2/10/2017 at 11:37 PM, psuhoffman said: We're just having some fun. I don't think anyone is legit worried about it. Expand As long as nobody gives mixed signals about what to believe in the long range to the exact isobar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 On 2/11/2017 at 12:35 AM, Ji said: JMA shows the storm Expand I was actually just looking at the JMA. What the JMA has is different and weaker than the Euro. In a completely different league. EDIT: JMA does not include the southern vort.....all northern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 There is an optimistic/contrarian view to this. Last night's Euro had the northern stream vort dropping due south to give us some snow. 12z was just another adjustment to a final solution yet to be reached. We all know that the 0z will be different from the 12z. So buckle up for the ride. As for the lack of ensemble support, the operational is far superior to them and when they've showed snow several times this year, we've gotten nothing. Do we really want ensemble support now? We're better off waiting for the operational to adjust. How's that? Did I miss anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 On 2/11/2017 at 12:50 AM, mitchnick said: There is an optimistic/contrarian view to this. Last night's Euro had the northern stream vort dropping due south to give us some snow. 12z was just another adjustment to a final solution yet to be reached. We all know that the 0z will be different from the 12z. So buckle up for the ride. As for the lack of ensemble support, the operational is far superior to them and when they've showed snow several times this year, we've gotten nothing. Do we really want ensemble support now? We're better off waiting for the operational to adjust. How's that? Did I miss anything? Expand Any way you slice it, its a convoluted set up. We rarely(if ever) do well with those. That being said, I will keep looking, watching, with the morbid curiosity of an onlooker of a car wreck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 On 2/10/2017 at 11:57 PM, mitchnick said: Nah, no need to travel that far. Just drive over to Daniel's biker bar on Rt. 1 and scream "all you pu$$ie bikers suck" and your body will be in just as many broken pieces in no time. Expand Passed that place many times and wondered. I bet everyone is lovely in that place. Heard the food is good too. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 This is why I'm bullish. You all would be too if we didn't have the 2017 track record so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Lots of big storms show up in the analogs. That's one reason to give it a small chance. Can't ignore the bad look to the guidance but the pattern is so close can't completely rule it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 I was hoping to find other methods for forecasting the NAO. I found this. https://weatherandvines.com/?page_id=96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 On 2/11/2017 at 1:34 AM, psuhoffman said: Lots of big storms show up in the analogs. That's one reason to give it a small chance. Can't ignore the bad look to the guidance but the pattern is so close can't completely rule it out. Expand Where are you getting the analogs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 On 2/11/2017 at 1:34 AM, psuhoffman said: Lots of big storms show up in the analogs. That's one reason to give it a small chance. Can't ignore the bad look to the guidance but the pattern is so close can't completely rule it out. Jb is using 58Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 On 2/11/2017 at 1:52 AM, Ji said: Jb is using 58 Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Expand The raging enso, right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Even if the February 23rd monstrosity gives us nothing, it will be interesting to watch... Even if a stupid clipper gives us 2" at some point, it won't be interesting to watch. So no, it's not really a kick to the nads.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 On 2/10/2017 at 11:16 PM, psuhoffman said: This would be a kick in the nads Expand That's alright. Plenty of time for it to trend cold enough for a historic New England blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 On 2/11/2017 at 2:07 AM, mattie g said: That's alright. Plenty of time for it to trend cold enough for a historic New England blizzard. Expand Rain for Canada with enough north trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 On 2/10/2017 at 11:57 PM, mitchnick said: Nah, no need to travel that far. Just drive over to Daniel's biker bar on Rt. 1 and scream "all you pu$$ie bikers suck" and your body will be in just as many broken pieces in no time. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 On 2/11/2017 at 12:22 AM, Bob Chill said: Agree it's possible but seeing 50 eps members and 20 gefs members showin nothing makes be a little bearish on any chance of any type. Lol Expand You can add the GEPS to that list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 On 2/11/2017 at 2:12 AM, mattie g said: Expand It's a real location. But don't be fooled by the website. I can almost assure you most patrons don't know how to turn on a shower. http://danielsopenair.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 On 2/10/2017 at 10:54 PM, BTRWx said: I'm very curious about the 850mb height ensemble verification scores. I wouldn't expect much. eta: day 10 scores gefs and gfs Expand The first plot was for temp. Here are the height scores (for North America). For a while, everything but the GEFS / GFS was mssing from the ensemble verification site. It's good to see that it's back. Someone mentioned earlier that the GEFS have been doing well. These scores seem to support it, as the GEFS has been outperforming the NAEFS in the 10+ day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 On 2/11/2017 at 2:29 AM, cae said: The first plot was for temp. Here are the height scores (for North America). For a while, everything but the GEFS / GFS was mssing from the ensemble verification site. It's good to see that it's back. Someone mentioned earlier that the GEFS have been doing well. These scores seem to support it, as the GEFS has been outperforming the NAEFS in the 10+ day range. Expand Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 On 2/11/2017 at 2:19 AM, cae said: You can add the GEPS to that list. Expand Maybe this is what we need. A general pattern that really isn't that hostile for snow but practically zero support from a ton of guidance. We've had ops and ens tease us all year with bullish progs with nothing to show for it. Reverse meteorology. I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 On 2/11/2017 at 1:45 AM, BTRWx said: Where are you getting the analogs? Expand Ncep tools http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/model_guidance.php http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/model_guidance.php?dayin=11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 I know, I know. BUT, fwiw, 84 hrs Nam is not that far off 12z Euro at 96 hrs. Now, obviously, we don't want exactly what the 12z Euro showed, but something close to it will work. My point is simply, there's a bit of support for northern/southern stream interaction with the players on the Nam in similar locations to the Euro thru 12z Tuesday. Nam's on top, Euro below. I'm on my phone and TT won't let me imbed the direct link...sorry. One more thing. NAM looks further south with the northern stream vort. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017021100&fh=84&xpos=0&ypos=0 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017021012&fh=96&xpos=14&ypos=31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 On 2/11/2017 at 3:48 AM, mitchnick said: I know, I know. BUT, fwiw, 84 hrs Nam is not that far off 12z Euro at 96 hrs. Now, obviously, we don't want exactly what the 12z Euro showed, but something close to it will work. My point is simply, there's a bit of support for northern/southern stream interaction with the players on the Nam in similar locations to the Euro thru 12z Tuesday. Nam's on top, Euro below. I'm on my phone and TT won't let me imbed the direct link...sorry. One more thing. NAM looks further south with the northern stream vort. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017021100&fh=84&xpos=0&ypos=0 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017021012&fh=96&xpos=14&ypos=31 Expand I got a weird feeling about late week. I wish I hadn't watched that damn Rayno vid. He gave me hope where there is none Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 On 2/11/2017 at 3:48 AM, mitchnick said: I know, I know. BUT, fwiw, 84 hrs Nam is not that far off 12z Euro at 96 hrs. Now, obviously, we don't want exactly what the 12z Euro showed, but something close to it will work. My point is simply, there's a bit of support for northern/southern stream interaction with the players on the Nam in similar locations to the Euro thru 12z Tuesday. Nam's on top, Euro below. I'm on my phone and TT won't let me imbed the direct link...sorry. One more thing. NAM looks further south with the northern stream vort. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017021100&fh=84&xpos=0&ypos=0 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017021012&fh=96&xpos=14&ypos=31 Expand wish that northern vort was farther west and the southern one faster and a bit east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 On 2/11/2017 at 3:58 AM, stormtracker said: wish that northern vort was farther west and the southern one faster and a bit east. Expand Hey, it is the 84 hr Nam, so we know it isn't right, but maybe getting close enough. If this is going to work, we'll need to collectively will it to happen. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 On 2/11/2017 at 4:03 AM, mitchnick said: Hey, it is the 84 hr Nam, so we know it isn't right, but maybe getting close enough. If this is going to work, we'll need to collectively will it to happen. Lol Expand GFS aint trying to play along..farther west with the southern vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 On 2/11/2017 at 4:06 AM, stormtracker said: GFS aint trying to play along..farther west with the southern vort. Expand Saw that. Let's see what it does with the southern vort. Last chance on this run to do something with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 On 2/11/2017 at 3:48 AM, mitchnick said: I know, I know. BUT, fwiw, 84 hrs Nam is not that far off 12z Euro at 96 hrs. Now, obviously, we don't want exactly what the 12z Euro showed, but something close to it will work. My point is simply, there's a bit of support for northern/southern stream interaction with the players on the Nam in similar locations to the Euro thru 12z Tuesday. Nam's on top, Euro below. I'm on my phone and TT won't let me imbed the direct link...sorry. One more thing. NAM looks further south with the northern stream vort. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017021100&fh=84&xpos=0&ypos=0 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017021012&fh=96&xpos=14&ypos=31 Expand I would take the op euro h5. The surface was a mess but that h5 was nearly perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 What a waste of a potent, juicy southern vort on the Gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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