psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: That is very wise. JB lost it so many years ago. It goes beyond his hyperbolic weather forecasts. Just a total nut. The folks here are as good as it gets. PSU, Chill and several others. We rock in this sub-forum. JB should never even be brought up here, other than to ridicule him. Just a complete clown. Making an actual forecast for things 7+ days away is crazy. What people should be doing at that range is threat analysis. No one knows with a very high success rate what specifically will happen that far out. Anyone who tries will fail more then succeed. But unfortunately bombastic proclamations and hype is what gets hits and sells now. Btw it's funny if a threat pops up now because a friend of mine pointed out this morning that he doesn't even think jb thinks it's going to snow here anymore by reading the signs. One thing I agree with rayno on is IF the euro h5 is correct the surface is underdone. That's a big snow look for us. The problem is there isn't a lot of support for that yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motsco Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 um Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motsco Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 cool they are serving cheez-it's in th panic room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowsux Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1 hour ago, BTRWx said: It's funny to hear him sound mentally drained early in the video then his red bull kicks in at 6:25. lol That was hilarious. I had the sound all the way up on my laptop, and he peaked the levels on the speakers and made my cat jump a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Making an actual forecast for things 7+ days away is crazy. What people should be doing at that range is threat analysis. No one knows with a very high success rate what specifically will happen that far out. Anyone who tries will fail more then succeed. But unfortunately bombastic proclamations and hype is what gets hits and sells now. Btw it's funny if a threat pops up now because a friend of mine pointed out this morning that he doesn't even think jb thinks it's going to snow here anymore by reading the signs. One thing I agree with rayno on is IF the euro h5 is correct the surface is underdone. That's a big snow look for us. The problem is there isn't a lot of support for that yet. I guess I have gotten beaten down a bit looking at favorable h5 patterns over and over that don't verify, or just nothing materializes. Agreed its a pretty nice look. But how many times have we seen good looks this winter, and how much snow do we have to show for it? That said, I am always in if there is a reasonable possibility. There have been a couple of interesting, if unlikely, op runs. Lets see if it continues, and most importantly, if it gains some support on the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 wow only we could do rain like thatSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 This would be a kick in the nads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This would be a kick in the nads Para dejavu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 The one thing the ensembles have been very consistent with and also have full consensus on now is a very low probability for snow over the next 10 days. It aint pretty and I'm not sugar coating it. The things that sucks is there is some consistency with having storminess over the period. Even a decent cluster with an OK track. But no snow. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This would be a kick in the nads A run or 2 ago it had a snow event for the coastal plain. The general idea is there for a coastal storm. This is a window where the advertised h5 pattern has generally looked favorable on the means. Lets see if support increases going forward on the GEFS. I couldn't care less that it shows a huge rainer this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowsux Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 26 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: That is very wise. JB lost it so many years ago. It goes beyond his hyperbolic weather forecasts. Just a total nut. The folks here are as good as it gets. PSU, Chill and several others. We rock in this sub-forum. JB should never even be brought up here, other than to ridicule him. Just a complete clown. I used to think he was a long range forecasting God back in the early 2000's, but that was then and this is now. Even though I still read his tweets and watch his free videos, I still feel the same way as you do. My guess is that he's now in the business somehow of helping to drive oil futures up, and that he's resting on his prior rep in order to milk that gravy train for as long as he can. That's just a guess though. The only other alternative would be that he just totally lost his marbles a few years ago. Did you catch his video today? Just watch one of his videos and take a shot of whiskey each time he contradicts himself. For the shorter daily videos, you'll be well over the legal limit to drive by the end. For his longer weekly updates, you'll either be dead from alcohol poisoning or from choking on your own vomit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 I guess I'll stay positive and say give me that track and I'll assume the thermals improve. If not then maybe one of you pissed off Mother Nature and a sacrifice will have to be made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This would be a kick in the nads The dark, cynical (realistic?) side of me says we can lock that up, that solution is a guarantee! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I guess I'll stay positive and say give me that track and I'll assume the thermals improve. If not then maybe one of you pissed off Mother Nature and a sacrifice will have to be made. This is how I feel. Let's get that southern piece out in front of the NS a little earlier, sharpen the trough and take our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This would be a kick in the nads I've been thorough every emotion but tears this winter. That could perhaps push me over the edge. 973 at our latitude in Feb and rain? I would rather 80F with a pig ridge and humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I guess I'll stay positive and say give me that track and I'll assume the thermals improve. If not then maybe one of you pissed off Mother Nature and a sacrifice will have to be made. It's the new guy from New Orleans...get a rope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This would be a kick in the nads Lol. That can't happen. If it does, I'll take an icicle and stick it through my heart as I swan dive off of the Mt Everest peak....screaming I love you American WX...see you on the other siiiiiiide! Hopefully the other side has snow 24x7. Meh. Probably a big rainstorm there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowsux Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 2 hours ago, B-Paq said: Not sure what you guys think of Bernie Rayno, but I really enjoy his discussions and in this one he briefly kicks around the Thursday-Friday thing next week: I like him a lot. I follow him exclusively when it comes to late season storms. He's very pragmatic, puts things into their proper prospective, and doesn't inject any personal preference or bias into his forecasting ideas. The best thing about him though, is how he refuses to make a call when he feels that it's too early. You've gotta admire that in a meteorologist. When you're informing the public about upcoming storm threats, you're doing it to serve them and not your own ego. I think he understands that, unlike "rockstar wannabes" like JB and his ilk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 I know this is the long range thread, but I can't believe people are getting worked up at all about the storm on the 23rd. Nothing in the long range has panned out the way it's been projected. If anything, the best chances have popped up within the 7 day window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Just now, BristowWx said: I've been thorough every emotion but tears this winter. That could perhaps push me over the edge. 973 at our latitude in Feb and rain? I would rather 80F with a pig ridge and humidity. Its one run of the (18z) GFS...at 312 hours. lol come on. Don't be so granular with a singular op run that is 300+ hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 I know this is the long range thread, but I can't believe people are getting worked up at all about the storm on the 23rd. Nothing in the long range has panned out the way it's been projected. If anything, the best chances have popped up within the 7 day window.Its just a pretty rare type of phase that happens about once every 100 years at that latitude lol. I havent seen anybody saying its gonna happen bud.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I know this is the long range thread, but I can't believe people are getting worked up at all about the storm on the 23rd. Nothing in the long range has panned out the way it's been projected. If anything, the best chances have popped up within the 7 day window. We're just having some fun. I don't think anyone is legit worried about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 We ain't buying it.. but we keep looking, hoping, getting ready for disappointment.. but if we get snow -- we will love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The one thing the ensembles have been very consistent with and also have full consensus on now is a very low probability for snow over the next 10 days. It aint pretty and I'm not sugar coating it. The things that sucks is there is some consistency with having storminess over the period. Even a decent cluster with an OK track. But no snow. lol It's bad but perhaps not as bad as total rock bottom. But the key is the euro and that one para run being right about digging the northern stream in behind. If the southern stream is a little faster and the northern stream digs in west that look on the snow means would change quick. It's the kind of thing where that one thing, the northern stream diving in front, totally kills any snow on all the runs. But adjust that one thing a little and boom. I don't expect that adjustment but it's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Seems people are discussing/confusing 2 completely different periods here lol. Anyway...time for another beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This would be a kick in the nads I know this exact scenario is wildly unlikely, but out of curiosity, I'm still interested to know, how on Earth is a 973 low off the Carolina coast with heavy rain for us meteorologically possible in FEBRUARY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 24 minutes ago, Scraff said: Lol. That can't happen. If it does, I'll take an icicle and stick it through my heart as I swan dive off of the Mt Everest peak....screaming I love you American WX...see you on the other siiiiiiide! Hopefully the other side has snow 24x7. Meh. Probably a big rainstorm there too. Nah, no need to travel that far. Just drive over to Daniel's biker bar on Rt. 1 and scream "all you pu$$ie bikers suck" and your body will be in just as many broken pieces in no time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 7 minutes ago, Fozz said: I know this exact scenario is wildly unlikely, but out of curiosity, I'm still interested to know, how on Earth is a 973 low off the Carolina coast with heavy rain for us meteorologically possible in FEBRUARY? Perhaps it is simply too strong and is pumping above freezing air in off of the Atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 40 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's bad but perhaps not as bad as total rock bottom. But the key is the euro and that one para run being right about digging the northern stream in behind. If the southern stream is a little faster and the northern stream digs in west that look on the snow means would change quick. It's the kind of thing where that one thing, the northern stream diving in front, totally kills any snow on all the runs. But adjust that one thing a little and boom. I don't expect that adjustment but it's possible. Agree it's possible but seeing 50 eps members and 20 gefs members showin nothing makes be a little bearish on any chance of any type. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Agree it's possible but seeing 50 eps members and 20 gefs members showin nothing makes be a little bearish on any chance of any type. Lol Don't forget every operational other than the Euro. Otoh, the contrarian would say "time to buy in." Sooooo.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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