Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: I don't disagree with that... I am arguing that there is no cold air around during the storm so even if we are in the 40s the day before there is nothing 2mT wise to bring us back down to the 30s to allow snow. The only thing that can possibly do that is what Bob mentioned of a full phase... which we know around here will either not happen or happen just after passing our latitude Yea, a phase this far south is a tall order. But we're still in the we can dream but expect nothing stage. There is another scenario that could work too. The NS ULL was elongated this run. What if a lobe rotating around the back taps some SS energy and we get some over running and maybe a secondary as the southern stream goes quietly out to sea? A partial like that would work. All in all it's low prob setup for us and doesn't get good until NYC most likely so its not that close as of right now. I'm just not writing it off until it's time to. Not time yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, a phase this far south is a tall order. But we're still in the we can dream but expect nothing stage. There is another scenario that could work too. The NS ULL was elongated this run. What if a lobe rotating around the back taps some SS energy and we get some over running and maybe a secondary as the southern stream goes quietly out to sea? A partial like that would work. All in all it's low prob setup for us and doesn't get good until NYC most likely so its not that close as of right now. I'm just not writing it off until it's time to. Not time yet. Thought I saw show something looking like it could dive down the back on the morning runs. That's what my mind wanted to believe anyway. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, a phase this far south is a tall order. But we're still in the we can dream but expect nothing stage. There is another scenario that could work too. The NS ULL was elongated this run. What if a lobe rotating around the back taps some SS energy and we get some over running and maybe a secondary as the southern stream goes quietly out to sea? A partial like that would work. All in all it's low prob setup for us and doesn't get good until NYC most likely so its not that close as of right now. I'm just not writing it off until it's time to. Not time yet. A fair response and thank you for explaining. I am assuming that we only really have a few more runs to go before we write it off? Also, I would like to see some other major model go along with the EURO in what its showing... I am just not 100% sold that the EPS will be even close to what the OP shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 12 minutes ago, H2O said: you all keep looking at models. gluttons I am stalking 60s for highs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 We need to get that 516dm low on the ONT/QB border at 120 hrs to track over Richmond. I recommend finding a new hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 25 minutes ago, yoda said: A fair response and thank you for explaining. I am assuming that we only really have a few more runs to go before we write it off? Also, I would like to see some other major model go along with the EURO in what its showing... I am just not 100% sold that the EPS will be even close to what the OP shows And that's my question: Why have the two been so far apart? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Way too much precision with some of this analysis. Just be happy that we might actually have something other than partly cloudy. If one had trusted the models at 5 days in order to forecast what just happened Wed night, they wouldn't have even been close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 2 hours ago, mitchnick said: Lemme' shock you.....GFS does look good pattern-wise post 240, and even better at the very end imho. But is it right? No one, of course, can answer that part. I think there are too many conflicting signals and with a neutral enso state nothing dominant from tropical forcing that can bully the pattern around. It's not shocking that when the mjo goes nuts suddenly for a while they all lock in on a stable idea day 5-10 but as soon as that fades the conflicting signals become too subtle for the guidance to consistently calculate correctly so things get jumpy again. The question is do we revert to crap or does the seasonal variance plus a possible soi drop help us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1 hour ago, yoda said: Correction... actually near 40... but still, where is the 10-15 degree temp drop going to come from? Only a phase can bring it and its not going to happen The drop would come from over your head. Get the storm to track right and marginal cold can work in feb. combo of convective cooling and heights crashing and it could cool the column enough. Get a freaking storm to track then we can worry temps. No precip and it doesn't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The drop would come from over your head. Get the storm to track right and marginal cold can work in feb. combo of convective cooling and heights crashing and it could cool the column enough. Get a freaking storm to track then we can worry temps. No precip and it doesn't matter. My hero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 15 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Way too much precision with some of this analysis. Just be happy that we might actually have something other than partly cloudy. If one had trusted the models at 5 days in order to forecast what just happened Wed night, they wouldn't have even been close. This. The reason the euro married the southern and northern streams is because a fairly strong shortwave/piece of energy came diving down the backside of the ULL. That sort of stuff pops up all the time at short leads because it's a tiny feature in the grand scheme. Could be real. Could be a mirage. None of us have any idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Looking over the EPS members... there are a few that look somewhat like the OP... but when you look at the snow maps... you get the picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Just now, yoda said: Looking over the EPS members... there are a few that look somewhat like the OP... but when you look at the snow maps... you get the picture How have the snow maps worked out this year. I already know this answer but want to see if anyone will admit it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: How have the snow maps worked out this year. I already know this answer but want to see if anyone will admit it. I've got 143" of digital snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: How have the snow maps worked out this year. I already know this answer but want to see if anyone will admit it. For fun, a nice .1" mean for that window! Looking gooooood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Actually, I miss people giving the two week means. Are they now near zero or have people given up on quoting them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: screw NE and us.....day 8 Euro lol The dragon near the pole blew the heat our way! Do you see it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 So I dont get great EURO graphics but seems to me the surface is warm because the good heavy precip is tight and close to the low....this does happen sometimes...If it were to blow up sooner and spread more QPF back it would be colder. Of course I wouldnt count on it in this winter though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 14 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: Actually, I miss people giving the two week means. Are they now near zero or have people given up on quoting them? Both the gefs and EPS snow means we're great about 48 hours ago and have since tanked to near 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Paq Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Not sure what you guys think of Bernie Rayno, but I really enjoy his discussions and in this one he briefly kicks around the Thursday-Friday thing next week:http://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/accuweather-experts/miltiple-threat-for-snowstorms-across-the-east-next-week/2430839568001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 You beat me to the punch posting the Bernie video. He's my favorite. Very reasonable and doesn't get overexcited. The fact he's so pumped up about what would happen if things work out with this one has me pretty excited. It's really a pretty close call and we still have plenty of time for adjustments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Bernie was leaving the door open even for us in 6 or 7 days. What is his track record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 17 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Bernie was leaving the door open even for us in 6 or 7 days. What is his track record? Bernie is awesome for the DMV. Here is my take... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 28 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Bernie was leaving the door open even for us in 6 or 7 days. What is his track record? It's funny to hear him sound mentally drained early in the video then his red bull kicks in at 6:25. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 18 minutes ago, Scraff said: Bernie is awesome for the DMV. Here is my take... He isn't usually that bad. He doesn't over hype as much as jb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: He isn't usually that bad. He doesn't over hype as much as jb. I was just playing around. Love Rayno. JB lost me years ago. I'd rather listen to folks in here than any other meteo/hypeorologists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 The dragon near the pole blew the heat our way! Do you see it? That's awesome...blue dragon. USA needs to roll a saving throw :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2017 Author Share Posted February 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 20 minutes ago, Scraff said: I was just playing around. Love Rayno. JB lost me years ago. I'd rather listen to folks in here than any other meteo/hypeorologists. That is very wise. JB lost it so many years ago. It goes beyond his hyperbolic weather forecasts. Just a total nut. The folks here are as good as it gets. PSU, Chill and several others. We rock in this sub-forum. JB should never even be brought up here, other than to ridicule him. Just a complete clown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 50 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I'm very curious about the 850mb height ensemble verification scores. I wouldn't expect much. eta: day 10 scores gefs and gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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