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February Medium/Long Range Disco Thread 2


WxUSAF

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1 minute ago, yoda said:

I don't disagree with that... I am arguing that there is no cold air around during the storm so even if we are in the 40s the day before there is nothing 2mT wise to bring us back down to the 30s to allow snow.  The only thing that can possibly do that is what Bob mentioned of a full phase... which we know around here will either not happen or happen just after passing our latitude

Yea, a phase this far south is a tall order. But we're still in the we can dream but expect nothing stage. 

There is another scenario that could work too. The NS ULL was elongated this run. What if a lobe rotating around the back taps some SS energy and we get some over running and maybe a secondary as the southern stream goes quietly out to sea? A partial like that would work. 

All in all it's low prob setup for us and doesn't get good until NYC most likely so its not that close as of right now. I'm just not writing it off until it's time to. Not time yet. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, a phase this far south is a tall order. But we're still in the we can dream but expect nothing stage. 

There is another scenario that could work too. The NS ULL was elongated this run. What if a lobe rotating around the back taps some SS energy and we get some over running and maybe a secondary as the southern stream goes quietly out to sea? A partial like that would work. 

All in all it's low prob setup for us and doesn't get good until NYC most likely so its not that close as of right now. I'm just not writing it off until it's time to. Not time yet. 

Thought I saw show something looking like it could dive down the back on the morning runs. That's what my mind wanted to believe anyway. 

Nut

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, a phase this far south is a tall order. But we're still in the we can dream but expect nothing stage. 

There is another scenario that could work too. The NS ULL was elongated this run. What if a lobe rotating around the back taps some SS energy and we get some over running and maybe a secondary as the southern stream goes quietly out to sea? A partial like that would work. 

All in all it's low prob setup for us and doesn't get good until NYC most likely so its not that close as of right now. I'm just not writing it off until it's time to. Not time yet. 

A fair response and thank you for explaining.  I am assuming that we only really have a few more runs to go before we write it off?  Also, I would like to see some other major model go along with the EURO in what its showing... I am just not 100% sold that the EPS will be even close to what the OP shows

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25 minutes ago, yoda said:

A fair response and thank you for explaining.  I am assuming that we only really have a few more runs to go before we write it off?  Also, I would like to see some other major model go along with the EURO in what its showing... I am just not 100% sold that the EPS will be even close to what the OP shows

And that's my question: Why have the two been so far apart?

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2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Lemme' shock you.....GFS does look good pattern-wise post 240, and even better at the very end imho. But is it right? No one, of course, can answer that part.

I think there are too many conflicting signals and with a neutral enso state nothing dominant from tropical forcing that can bully the pattern around. It's not shocking that when the mjo goes nuts suddenly for a while they all lock in on a stable idea day 5-10 but as soon as that fades the conflicting signals become too subtle for the guidance to consistently calculate correctly so things get jumpy again. The question is do we revert to crap or does the seasonal variance plus a possible soi drop help us. 

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1 hour ago, yoda said:

Correction... actually near 40... but still, where is the 10-15 degree temp drop going to come from?  Only a phase can bring it and its not going to happen

The drop would come from over your head. Get the storm to track right and marginal cold can work in feb. combo of convective cooling and heights crashing and it could cool the column enough. Get a freaking storm to track then we can worry temps. No precip and it doesn't matter. 

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The drop would come from over your head. Get the storm to track right and marginal cold can work in feb. combo of convective cooling and heights crashing and it could cool the column enough. Get a freaking storm to track then we can worry temps. No precip and it doesn't matter. 

My hero.

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15 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Way too much precision with some of this analysis.  Just be happy that we might actually have something other than partly cloudy.

If one had trusted the models at 5 days in order to forecast what just happened Wed night, they wouldn't have even been close.

 

This. The reason the euro married the southern and northern streams is because a fairly strong shortwave/piece of energy came diving down the backside of the ULL. That sort of stuff pops up all the time at short leads because it's a tiny feature in the grand scheme. Could be real. Could be a mirage. None of us have any idea. 

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You beat me to the punch posting the Bernie video. He's my favorite. Very reasonable and doesn't get overexcited. The fact he's so pumped up about what would happen if things work out with this one has me pretty excited. It's really a pretty close call and we still have plenty of time for adjustments.

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28 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Bernie was leaving the door open even for us in 6 or 7 days. What is his track record?

It's funny to hear him sound mentally drained early in the video then his red bull kicks in at 6:25. lol

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20 minutes ago, Scraff said:

:lol: I was just playing around. Love Rayno. JB lost me years ago. I'd rather listen to folks in here than any other meteo/hypeorologists. 

 

That is very wise.

JB lost it so many years ago. It goes beyond his hyperbolic weather forecasts. Just a total nut. The folks here are as good as it gets. PSU, Chill and several others. We rock in this sub-forum. JB should never even be brought up here, other than to ridicule him. Just a complete clown.

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