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February Medium/Long Range Disco Thread 2


WxUSAF

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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Correction... actually near 40... but still, where is the 10-15 degree temp drop going to come from?  Only a phase can bring it and its not going to happen

A full phase does happen it just happens too late. But we were awful close this run and it wasn't that far out in time when it started looking possible. Around hr114 was when the lobe is diving down behind the NS ULL. I agree that it's likely not to happen but I won't ignore how close it was. 

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

A full phase does happen it just happens too late. But we were awful close this run and it wasn't that far out in time when it started looking possible. Around hr114 was when the lobe is diving down behind the NS ULL. I agree that it's likely not to happen but I won't ignore how close it was. 

I am willing to bet that very few EPS members, if any at all, will be even close to what the OP shows

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Just now, Fozz said:

That doesn't change the fact that warm temperatures on the previous day don't necessarily mean that there can't be a snowstorm.

I don't disagree with that... I am arguing that there is no cold air around during the storm so even if we are in the 40s the day before there is nothing 2mT wise to bring us back down to the 30s to allow snow.  The only thing that can possibly do that is what Bob mentioned of a full phase... which we know around here will either not happen or happen just after passing our latitude

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Just now, yoda said:

I don't disagree with that... I am arguing that there is no cold air around during the storm so even if we are in the 40s the day before there is nothing 2mT wise to bring us back down to the 30s to allow snow.  The only thing that can possibly do that is what Bob mentioned of a full phase... which we know around here will either not happen or happen just after passing our latitude

Yeah, I agree on that. At this point I'm fully expecting a phase that happens just too late for us, not just because I'm a complainer, but because persistence is a thing in the winter.

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