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February Medium/Long Range Disco Thread 2


WxUSAF

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2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Yeah, makes sense. I'm just hoping that we can score a little something soon while we're in prime climo.

Oh....I almost forgot.....NAO argues against it as well.

Not used to typing that as the NAO has been a missing variable for so long.

Nut

 

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2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Euro is a day 6 event while the Para GFS is a day 8 event, so really, neither model has any other support for their respective storms.

Euro swings a lobe around in the initial digging vortex. The para pinwheels the whole thing and dives another vort in a day later. It's the same general idea of a vort digging down the backside. Just differ on timing and which vorts. But who cares neither has any support. 

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2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

One thing I've noticed over the years is that those wrecking balls modeled at range to park over NE rarely do that.  Perhaps it begins to trend out of there sooner and changes the overall look.  Just a conjecture on my part with nothing really to back it up.

It could trend further north but it's in the worst spot. Usually they are a little south and trend weaker a bit. But we need a pretty big adjustment. There are still some ways this could work (long shots) that I am about to type up in my DT response. 

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It could trend further north but it's in the worst spot. Usually they are a little south and trend weaker a bit. But we need a pretty big adjustment. There are still some ways this could work (long shots) that I am about to type up in my DT response. 


DT is most likely speaking of SEVA and not us when he is woofing. They are more in the game for northern adjustments at this point.


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20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It could trend further north but it's in the worst spot. Usually they are a little south and trend weaker a bit. But we need a pretty big adjustment. There are still some ways this could work (long shots) that I am about to type up in my DT response. 

At this point it looks like the only way the southern vort makes it up here is if it's slow enough for the bowling ball to start retreating. Fast isn't going to work. The back to back fairly potent NS lows are going to boot it. IMHO- the southern low affecting us seems like a very low to no probability. Could still score in the northern stream though. We were out of range for shortwaves to be accurately modeled. 

If I had to rate the next 7 days for snow chances I would give it a 4/10 at best. 

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7 minutes ago, kurtstack said:

ensembles and ops are all pretty dry in the 10 day period.  No real signals for a storm at all.  Anybody predicting any snow at this point for next week is really out on a limb, a dead and rotted limb holding on by a thread.

I say the same for week 2.

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2 hours ago, PCT_ATC said:

DT is getting bullish.. not sure what he sees though

Probably risk reward analysis.  If he goes against all the models and wins he can hype himself. If he is wrong no one will remember in a few months. You can't do that all the time or you become jb though. But this might be a good risk reward opportunity because there is enough good about the overall large scale pattern to say there is a chance things could trend better.

For day 6-9 the only thing really mucking it up is the northern stream wrecking ball dropping down in front of everything and squashing it. So roll the dice that it either trends west or east or weaker and then something could work. Or hope perhaps something digs in the backside of the trough as that feature is leaving which sometimes pops up and is a typical way we score. 

The day 12-15 period is screwed up by the ridging going out of control ahead of the next trough. But if the departing vortex is slower it could hold heights lower behind it and that could trend better. Or get two waves back to back like the 0z gfs and the second could be a threat. Or get something to really bomb under the ridge and it could work.  Both windows are close enough that taking a calculated risk something pops up the models are missing could be worth it. 

ETA I haven't looked at any 12z stuff yet. Been too busy but regardless of what they show I doubt the overall equation changes much. 

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Probably risk reward analysis.  If he goes against all the models and wins he can hype himself. If he is wrong no one will remember in a few months. You can't do that all the time or you become jb though. But this might be a good risk reward opportunity because there is enough good about the overall large scale pattern to say there is a chance things could trend better.

For day 6-9 the only thing really mucking it up is the northern stream wrecking ball dropping down in front of everything and squashing it. So roll the dice that it either trends west or east or weaker and then something could work. Or hope perhaps something digs in the backside of the trough as that feature is leaving which sometimes pops up and is a typical way we score. 

The day 12-15 period is screwed up by the ridging going out of control ahead of the next trough. But if the departing vortex is slower it could hold heights lower behind it and that could trend better. Or get two waves back to back like the 0z gfs and the second could be a threat. Or get something to really bomb under the ridge and it could work.  Both windows are close enough that taking a calculated risk something pops up the models are missing could be worth it. 

ETA I haven't looked at any 12z stuff yet. Been too busy but regardless of what they show I doubt the overall equation changes much. 

Lemme' shock you.....GFS does look good pattern-wise post 240, and even better at the very end imho. But is it right? No one, of course, can answer that part.

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2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Lemme' shock you.....GFS does look good pattern-wise post 240, and even better at the very end imho. But is it right? No one, of course, can answer that part.

Is the operational GFS right past 240 hrs? I can easily answer that!

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I saw the 12z gefs mslp plots beyond day 10 and was like "wow, that's a really strong signal for a low tracking under us". Then I dug in and realized that a good # of favorable tracks are loaded with temp problems. It's too far out to really care much but wasn't fun to see either way. 

Basically no signal for anything working out before that either. It won't be too long before I start rooting for ridges and 60's. 

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

It could trend further north but it's in the worst spot. Usually they are a little south and trend weaker a bit. But we need a pretty big adjustment. There are still some ways this could work (long shots) that I am about to type up in my DT response. 

Am I right to think that if the northern streams trends north it would also allow southern stream to come further north? Seems like thats what happened on the 12z. NS is north compared to 6z and SS comes a little further north. 

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