pasnownut Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Yeah, makes sense. I'm just hoping that we can score a little something soon while we're in prime climo. Oh....I almost forgot.....NAO argues against it as well. Not used to typing that as the NAO has been a missing variable for so long. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 2 hours ago, mitchnick said: Euro is a day 6 event while the Para GFS is a day 8 event, so really, neither model has any other support for their respective storms. Euro swings a lobe around in the initial digging vortex. The para pinwheels the whole thing and dives another vort in a day later. It's the same general idea of a vort digging down the backside. Just differ on timing and which vorts. But who cares neither has any support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: One thing I've noticed over the years is that those wrecking balls modeled at range to park over NE rarely do that. Perhaps it begins to trend out of there sooner and changes the overall look. Just a conjecture on my part with nothing really to back it up. It could trend further north but it's in the worst spot. Usually they are a little south and trend weaker a bit. But we need a pretty big adjustment. There are still some ways this could work (long shots) that I am about to type up in my DT response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 It could trend further north but it's in the worst spot. Usually they are a little south and trend weaker a bit. But we need a pretty big adjustment. There are still some ways this could work (long shots) that I am about to type up in my DT response. DT is most likely speaking of SEVA and not us when he is woofing. They are more in the game for northern adjustments at this point.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It could trend further north but it's in the worst spot. Usually they are a little south and trend weaker a bit. But we need a pretty big adjustment. There are still some ways this could work (long shots) that I am about to type up in my DT response. At this point it looks like the only way the southern vort makes it up here is if it's slow enough for the bowling ball to start retreating. Fast isn't going to work. The back to back fairly potent NS lows are going to boot it. IMHO- the southern low affecting us seems like a very low to no probability. Could still score in the northern stream though. We were out of range for shortwaves to be accurately modeled. If I had to rate the next 7 days for snow chances I would give it a 4/10 at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 ensembles and ops are all pretty dry in the 10 day period. No real signals for a storm at all. Anybody predicting any snow at this point for next week is really out on a limb, a dead and rotted limb holding on by a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 7 minutes ago, kurtstack said: ensembles and ops are all pretty dry in the 10 day period. No real signals for a storm at all. Anybody predicting any snow at this point for next week is really out on a limb, a dead and rotted limb holding on by a thread. I say the same for week 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Snowshowers Sunday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 26 minutes ago, BTRWx said: I say the same for week 2. With the less-than-stellar record of the long-range models this year, we might be sitting in a real good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 2 hours ago, PCT_ATC said: DT is getting bullish.. not sure what he sees though Probably risk reward analysis. If he goes against all the models and wins he can hype himself. If he is wrong no one will remember in a few months. You can't do that all the time or you become jb though. But this might be a good risk reward opportunity because there is enough good about the overall large scale pattern to say there is a chance things could trend better. For day 6-9 the only thing really mucking it up is the northern stream wrecking ball dropping down in front of everything and squashing it. So roll the dice that it either trends west or east or weaker and then something could work. Or hope perhaps something digs in the backside of the trough as that feature is leaving which sometimes pops up and is a typical way we score. The day 12-15 period is screwed up by the ridging going out of control ahead of the next trough. But if the departing vortex is slower it could hold heights lower behind it and that could trend better. Or get two waves back to back like the 0z gfs and the second could be a threat. Or get something to really bomb under the ridge and it could work. Both windows are close enough that taking a calculated risk something pops up the models are missing could be worth it. ETA I haven't looked at any 12z stuff yet. Been too busy but regardless of what they show I doubt the overall equation changes much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Probably risk reward analysis. If he goes against all the models and wins he can hype himself. If he is wrong no one will remember in a few months. You can't do that all the time or you become jb though. But this might be a good risk reward opportunity because there is enough good about the overall large scale pattern to say there is a chance things could trend better. For day 6-9 the only thing really mucking it up is the northern stream wrecking ball dropping down in front of everything and squashing it. So roll the dice that it either trends west or east or weaker and then something could work. Or hope perhaps something digs in the backside of the trough as that feature is leaving which sometimes pops up and is a typical way we score. The day 12-15 period is screwed up by the ridging going out of control ahead of the next trough. But if the departing vortex is slower it could hold heights lower behind it and that could trend better. Or get two waves back to back like the 0z gfs and the second could be a threat. Or get something to really bomb under the ridge and it could work. Both windows are close enough that taking a calculated risk something pops up the models are missing could be worth it. ETA I haven't looked at any 12z stuff yet. Been too busy but regardless of what they show I doubt the overall equation changes much. Lemme' shock you.....GFS does look good pattern-wise post 240, and even better at the very end imho. But is it right? No one, of course, can answer that part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Lemme' shock you.....GFS does look good pattern-wise post 240, and even better at the very end imho. But is it right? No one, of course, can answer that part. Is the operational GFS right past 240 hrs? I can easily answer that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 14 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Is the operational GFS right past 240 hrs? I can easily answer that! Longest storm ever, but it's mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 I saw the 12z gefs mslp plots beyond day 10 and was like "wow, that's a really strong signal for a low tracking under us". Then I dug in and realized that a good # of favorable tracks are loaded with temp problems. It's too far out to really care much but wasn't fun to see either way. Basically no signal for anything working out before that either. It won't be too long before I start rooting for ridges and 60's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Basically no signal for anything working out before that either. It won't be too long before I start rooting for ridges and 60's. Already ahead of you on that last part. Will prob work out like last year and that won't show up either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Looking at the ewall site, there are 3 members that manage to get some of the southern system precip in here day 5-6. Doesn't look like much, but at 6z I dont think there were any that managed to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: It could trend further north but it's in the worst spot. Usually they are a little south and trend weaker a bit. But we need a pretty big adjustment. There are still some ways this could work (long shots) that I am about to type up in my DT response. Am I right to think that if the northern streams trends north it would also allow southern stream to come further north? Seems like thats what happened on the 12z. NS is north compared to 6z and SS comes a little further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 12Z euro looks like it's a little closer to bringing southern system up, at least through day 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Heh, euro trying to open the door in front of the NS ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 lol Day 5 on the EURO... 998mb SLP in C AL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 yummy rain at 132... 989mb SLP over HSE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 The energy diving down behind the bowling ball allows heights to rise in front instead of a stonewall. Very interesting run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Whoah @Euro between 120 and 144... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Zero cold air even close to us... so it doesn't even matter that this EURO run looks nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Misses the phase but by far the closest run we've seen. If the phase happened just south of our latitude it would be rain flipping to intense snow. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Just now, yoda said: Zero cold air even close to us... so it doesn't even matter that this EURO run looks nice Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Zero cold air even close to us... so it doesn't even matter that this EURO run looks nice It's hanging back with the vort diving down the back of the closed ULL. The cold is there. Just need a phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 ^ Check 2mT... 40s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 This is how last non-event at 6 days turned into a trackable event starting days 4-5. Interesting but yes, Euro is essentially alone, for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Just now, yoda said: ^ Check 2mT... 40s to near 50 Ouch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.