MDstorm Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 34 minutes ago, Amped said: Yeah, I don't see how we are going to get a snowstorm next week, heights off the east coast are just too flat for any southern stream system, and that 516 northern stream is not going to dive into Kentucky and spawn it's own low off the Del Marva like 2/10/10 You may be right. However, don't forget that at this time last week, yesterday's storm was looking "squished" on all guidance. I think that NYC and Boston would agree that the storm became quite "unsquished". MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 48 minutes ago, Amped said: Yeah, I don't see how we are going to get a snowstorm next week, heights off the east coast are just too flat for any southern stream system, and that 516 northern stream is not going to dive into Kentucky and spawn it's own low off the Del Marva like 2/10/10 Ah, is that how the second of the twin blizzards started? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, MDstorm said: You may be right. However, don't forget that at this time last week, yesterday's storm was looking "squished" on all guidance. I think that NYC and Boston would agree that the storm became quite "unsquished". MDstorm And how many days out did it start looking unsquished? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: And how many days out did it start looking unsquished? 4 days out the storm was no longer squished. Not saying that next week's "threat" will do the same. Just saying that suppressed systems in the medium range can certainly trend north over a 5-7 day period. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 What does the Euro look like on the surface between 144 and 168? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1 hour ago, PDIII said: What does the Euro look like on the surface between 144 and 168? Nice little snowstorm for us. 2-6 inches, far western burbs with the least, bullseye DC and northern burbs with 5-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 25 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Nice little snowstorm for us. 2-6 inches, far western burbs with the least, bullseye DC and northern burbs with 5-6. Another 24 to 48 hours and the euro is pretty deadly.... I love how the low from great Lakes tracks almost straight south. get that vort to dive in south of our area and pickup the southern stream energy and I think we'd be in business... that's my laymens analysis of it. I think that we are pretty close to something here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 29 minutes ago, PDIII said: Another 24 to 48 hours and the euro is pretty deadly.... I love how the low from great Lakes tracks almost straight south. get that vort to dive in south of our area and pickup the southern stream energy and I think we'd be in business... that's my laymens analysis of it. I think that we are pretty close to something here Sweet! Love an opp for a diving vort that goes below us. Definitely a time period to track. Looking forward to it...again. Edit: Hsppy Friday all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 8 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: What I wouldn't give for the Para! Lol But seriously, is there still potential for that 17th-19th period? (Seems the EURO and GFS can't quite catch it...) From what I can see the 12z Para is quite good. hours of snow for your PD weekend enjoyment. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfsp®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017020912&fh=150&xpos=0&ypos=112 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1 hour ago, PDIII said: Another 24 to 48 hours and the euro is pretty deadly.... I love how the low from great Lakes tracks almost straight south. get that vort to dive in south of our area and pickup the southern stream energy and I think we'd be in business... that's my laymens analysis of it. I think that we are pretty close to something here Deadly? 12z on Wednesday gave BWI .75" qpf and .24" actually fell yesterday, 1 day later. And it did the same thing (too much qpf) in the storm that missed us in January the day before. Similar results were all around the area and not just BWI in both storms. That's not to say that the Euro isn't deadly in NE. It did a great job there. In fact, when you think about it, it seems that the models do much better in NE with snow forecasts vs. our area. But getting back to this potential event, the operational looks like a bunch of cr@p. That will never happen as depicted. Ensemble mean doesn't seem to support it either. In fact, none of the other operationals support it, and if there is one thing that has been missing for snow in our area this year, it's been a strong consensus among the Euro, Ukie, and the Gfs. So imho, unless you have that this year, forget it. Can it change? Sure, but just keep in mind how many storms have trended toward snow AND ACTUALLY PRODUCED SNOW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Active period during the height of climatological snow season approaching ... Three or more low probability events to follow Euro argues for a rain to snow to rain scenario Wednesday night into Thursday with 1000-500 hPa thicknesses in the 520s. Parallel GFS suggests next weekend will begin cold and snow-showery with the potential for significant rain or snow Saturday evening. Operational GFS shows nothing of the kind. NAEFS still showing a big signal on the 23rd; ensemble guidance suggests rain at this point but the operational GFS and chaos suggests snow is still a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 16 hours ago, Amped said: I watched that 5 times waiting for Trump to jump out and barf rainbows. that would have been fitting for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1 hour ago, PDIII said: Another 24 to 48 hours and the euro is pretty deadly.... I love how the low from great Lakes tracks almost straight south. get that vort to dive in south of our area and pickup the southern stream energy and I think we'd be in business... that's my laymens analysis of it. I think that we are pretty close to something here That is a really low probability evolution. There is no support among the ens members for the op solution on the late week potential. A lot would have to change. The current depiction(location, timing) of the important features would need to be wrong, in order for that to trend in a more favorable direction. Not impossible, but I am no more enthused about it today than I was yesterday. Probably less. On to the next threat window around the 23rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 2 hours ago, PDIII said: Another 24 to 48 hours and the euro is pretty deadly.... I love how the low from great Lakes tracks almost straight south. get that vort to dive in south of our area and pickup the southern stream energy and I think we'd be in business... that's my laymens analysis of it. I think that we are pretty close to something here Yeah, it was deadly with the last system. Deadly wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 The euro and para are actually similar in how they get snow into our area. Instead of dropping one consolidated northern stream low into New England they have a more elongated lobe that swings a piece behind that dives down over us. Neat trick. But nothing else has it. No ensemble support. 99% of the guidance is intent on dropping a wrecking ball from the northern stream down into New England right in the middle of our threat window to squash everything behind it. Would ruin a really nice -nao and pna ridge combo we haven't seen all winter. At least it's a totally different way to fail. As for the "north trend" that only has a chance if that vortex dropping into New England trends umm well anywhere but there. That's literally the worst damn spot for it. Either get it east into the 50/50 area or dive it in to our west and phase with something but right there kills any chance anything can develop. There is no room for a north trend unless that changes. Could it change? Maybe but I'm not holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Just now, psuhoffman said: The euro and para are actually similar in how they get snow into our area. Instead of dropping one consolidated northern stream low into New England they have a more elongated lobe that swings a piece behind that dives down over us. Neat trick. But nothing else has it. No ensemble support. 99% of the guidance is intent on dropping a wrecking ball from the northern stream down into New England right in the middle of our threat window to squash everything behind it. Would ruin a really nice -nao and pna ridge combo we haven't seen all winter. At least it's a totally different way to fail. As for the "north trend" that only has a chance if that vortex dropping into New England trends umm well anywhere but there. That's literally the worst damn spot for it. Either get it east into the 50/50 area or dive it in to our west and phase with something but right there kills any chance anything can develop. There is no room for a north trend unless that changes. Could it change? Maybe but I'm not holding my breath. One thing I've noticed over the years is that those wrecking balls modeled at range to park over NE rarely do that. Perhaps it begins to trend out of there sooner and changes the overall look. Just a conjecture on my part with nothing really to back it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: One thing I've noticed over the years is that those wrecking balls modeled at range to park over NE rarely do that. Perhaps it begins to trend out of there sooner and changes the overall look. Just a conjecture on my part with nothing really to back it up. Everybody on the Board backs you up buddy....as long as you don't ask for money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The euro and para are actually similar in how they get snow into our area. Instead of dropping one consolidated northern stream low into New England they have a more elongated lobe that swings a piece behind that dives down over us. Neat trick. But nothing else has it. No ensemble support. 99% of the guidance is intent on dropping a wrecking ball from the northern stream down into New England right in the middle of our threat window to squash everything behind it. Would ruin a really nice -nao and pna ridge combo we haven't seen all winter. At least it's a totally different way to fail. As for the "north trend" that only has a chance if that vortex dropping into New England trends umm well anywhere but there. That's literally the worst damn spot for it. Either get it east into the 50/50 area or dive it in to our west and phase with something but right there kills any chance anything can develop. There is no room for a north trend unless that changes. Could it change? Maybe but I'm not holding my breath. Euro is a day 6 event while the Para GFS is a day 8 event, so really, neither model has any other support for their respective storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Euro is a day 6 event while the Para GFS is a day 8 event, so really, neither model has any other support for their respective storms. Sometimes I think the models see situations like this and the ensembles play catch up. Probably not expressing this very well. If there is no support for a particular scenario why do the models spit those scenarios out in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Sometimes I think the models see situations like this and the ensembles play catch up. Probably not expressing this very well. If there is no support for a particular scenario why do the models spit those scenarios out in the first place. Wag is simply chaos. Oh, there's probably a short wave they are seeing, but chaos causes the wacky solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 15 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Euro is a day 6 event while the Para GFS is a day 8 event, so really, neither model has any other support for their respective storms. Yeah and it's hard to take the Para seriously when the GFS, the Euro, and EPS all show a torch during presidents day weekend, not a snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: The euro and para are actually similar in how they get snow into our area. Instead of dropping one consolidated northern stream low into New England they have a more elongated lobe that swings a piece behind that dives down over us. Neat trick. But nothing else has it. No ensemble support. 99% of the guidance is intent on dropping a wrecking ball from the northern stream down into New England right in the middle of our threat window to squash everything behind it. Would ruin a really nice -nao and pna ridge combo we haven't seen all winter. At least it's a totally different way to fail. As for the "north trend" that only has a chance if that vortex dropping into New England trends umm well anywhere but there. That's literally the worst damn spot for it. Either get it east into the 50/50 area or dive it in to our west and phase with something but right there kills any chance anything can develop. There is no room for a north trend unless that changes. Could it change? Maybe but I'm not holding my breath. It's just not our winter...man oh man. So after thePD weekend....anymore threat window after that, or should we just pack it in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 22 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: It's just not our winter...man oh man. So after thePD weekend....anymore threat window after that, or should we just pack it in? DT is getting bullish.. not sure what he sees though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, PCT_ATC said: DT is getting bullish.. not sure what he sees though Welcome to the club. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, isohume said: Welcome to the club. in one of his videos he did reference mjo and mid feb stages, as is joe d'aleo in his comments to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1 hour ago, DCTeacherman said: Yeah and it's hard to take the Para seriously when the GFS, the Euro, and EPS all show a torch during presidents day weekend, not a snow storm. GEFS shows 2m air tems in the 30-40s for daytime highs. Here is the "warmest" panel i could find for Pday weekend. Rest of weekend was normalish...not a torch. plus....its beyond 7 days....and you should know by now how well this stuff changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1 minute ago, isohume said: Welcome to the club. when he starts woofing, I always check back here to gauge the excitement level and catch a dose of reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Just now, pasnownut said: GEFS shows 2m air tems in the 30-40s for daytime highs. Here is the "warmest" panel i could find for Pday weekend. Rest of weekend was normalish...not a torch. plus....its beyond 7 days....and you should know by now how well this stuff changes. True, but I think the EPS and op Euro/GFS both looked pretty warm though. But yeah, +7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: True, but I think the EPS and op Euro/GFS both looked pretty warm though. But yeah, +7 days. Yes they did at 500mb, but we dont live up there....well i dont anyway. Guess Im just saying that while the look from upstairs isnt too good, I think we can expect more viarability as been the theme of this "winter". MJO progs argue against this IMO. Will be interesting to see how this evolves. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Yes they did at 500mb, but we dont live up there....well i dont anyway. Guess Im just saying that while the look from upstairs isnt too good, I think we can expect more viarability as been the theme of this "winter". MJO progs argue against this IMO. Will be interesting to see how this evolves. Nut Yeah, makes sense. I'm just hoping that we can score a little something soon while we're in prime climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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