Fozz Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Which becomes tiresome in this thread. We had this same EXACT thing happen in early Feb 2015. The panic room was loaded with jumpers. Anytime a pattern change was talked about it was met with a barrage of cynicism and despair. The rest is history. 2015 was better up until the Vday flip but not by much. It was a pretty crappy year until mid Feb I'm not saying that we magically flip or anything. But discounting all talk about potential just because your feelings are hurt really adds nothing. I don't see a shutout pattern on any guidance anywhere. If I did I would first to say I think the month is toast. But it isn't. Not even close. I remember that all too well, and was one of the worse jumpers at the time. I'm so glad I learned not to give up in early Feb if a better pattern is on the way. With the setup that psuhoffman posted, I think we're in a good position to get something meaningful. Also, over the years I noticed that whenever we're in a nasty, ugly snowhole, it usually gets filled up sooner or later with a decent storm. It happened in 2011 with the psuhoffman storm, it happened in 2014 in DC after a lot of northern MD storms, and it happened in 2015 after the V-day squall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 58 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: My apologies......I mean, I'm hopeful, but I'll try not to say anything negative (and if I do, delete my comment) I'll just try and watch...and learn...Patience is difficult, but you guys have been doin' this a lot longer than I have. I'm slowly learning about pattern progressions and such...Again, my apologies. No need to apologize at all. It's not that serious to me. I have emotions too btw and it's hard sometimes not to get frustrated. I'm also a debate coach so I can be argumentative. Put me and Mitch together and it's inevitable. But I don't take any of this personally. I don't feel insulted at all by anyone. I just feel the way bob does about it. Trying to add substantive points and not let my frustration bias my analysis of the next threat. Do that and it's like going full tilt. Your past failure will negatively impact your future performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 29 minutes ago, paulythegun said: Here's a good look. What is this from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 hour ago, Always in Zugzwang said: I'm not so sure PSU is necessarily saying "one of these has got to eventually work out for us", as if it absolutely will for sure. I think it's more to say that the potential is certainly there, it's not like the advertised pattern has absolutely no chance whatsoever and that we may as well pack it in. We may well score nothing at all the rest of the year despite how it looks, and this will go down as one of the awful ones, who knows. But that look on the ensembles lately suggests we should at least have our chances. If the pattern evolves like that and we get screwed with nothing, then that's simply getting screwed with bad luck or bad timing...not because there's no chance. ^^^ this. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 58 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We're all different and think differently. I seem to be a bit of anomaly around here. It's not that I'm over optimistic or anything. I was like that for years early on (back in the easternwx days). I simply try and maintain an objective view and don't let previous fail bias get in the way of my logic. Each potential threat is unique on its own merits regardless. Yes, it does "feel" like it just doesn't want to snow here. But in reality we really haven't had the pieces in place. Each legit threat has been inherently flawed. And there haven't been that many to begin with. Sometimes those flawed events break our way but they normally don't. The next 2 weeks look as good as any 2 week period we've seen so far. I'm an avid fisherman. I can go 5 days in a row without getting a single bite. But that never stops me from going out over and over because great days happen and I really enjoy the sport. I'm the same way with tracking winter wx. I'll keep doing it objectively and enjoy when they work out. When they don't its water under the bridge (Except for March 2013. I needed a healing period after that. LOL). Couldn't agree with this more. You articulate this stuff way better then I can. We seem to have a similar mentality on the way we chase and analyze threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 35 minutes ago, paulythegun said: Here's a good look. What is that? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: My feeling 100% but I decided just now I'm simply going to ignore all the "this is a waste" or "it can't snow" comments and try to just make analysis and read the posts that want to speculate not complain. I'm wasting my time. Hopefully it doesn't get out of control and turn the thread into a dumpster fire. I almost think that's what some people want. Unless the pattern turns ugly and it does look over them I'll be there with everyone else holding a torch and carrying gasoline. Keep it up guys. You will have many sheep in your flock. Today's done. What's next? Love the insight. Nut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 15 minutes ago, yoda said: What is this from? Looks like the NASA model that's occasionally used. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: What is that? Lol qpf is in mm and not inches, sooooo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Paq Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, AlaskaETC said: Looks like the NASA model that's occasionally used. I'm gonna go out on a limb and assume it doesn't exactly have a stellar track record at long leads. Is that a safe assumption? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: qpf is in mm and not inches, sooooo... Can't exactly tell what the dark blue is... I think its 5mm... so DC is in the dark blue for 6 frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 You guys need not take paulygun so so seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 8 minutes ago, B-Paq said: I'm gonna go out on a limb and assume it doesn't exactly have a stellar track record at long leads. Is that a safe assumption? I don't think it's a model that people look at as a stand alone, sort of like the JMA or NAVGEM in terms of precision and reliability I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, AlaskaETC said: I don't think it's a model that people look at as a stand alone, sort of like the JMA or NAVGEM in terms of precision and reliability I think. I'll ride it! eta: that foot of snow would cure a lot of woes around here. I will say that it's definitely a time period that almost all models have a system traversing the southern states. Need that northern stream to phase. Assuming that's what we're seeing with the nasa model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 21 minutes ago, mappy said: You guys need not take paulygun so so seriously. I watched that 5 times waiting for Trump to jump out and barf rainbows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: We're all different and think differently. I seem to be a bit of anomaly around here. It's not that I'm over optimistic or anything. I was like that for years early on (back in the easternwx days). I simply try and maintain an objective view and don't let previous fail bias get in the way of my logic. Each potential threat is unique on its own merits regardless. Yes, it does "feel" like it just doesn't want to snow here. But in reality we really haven't had the pieces in place. Each legit threat has been inherently flawed. And there haven't been that many to begin with. Sometimes those flawed events break our way but they normally don't. The next 2 weeks look as good as any 2 week period we've seen so far. I'm an avid fisherman. I can go 5 days in a row without getting a single bite. But that never stops me from going out over and over because great days happen and I really enjoy the sport. I'm the same way with tracking winter wx. I'll keep doing it objectively and enjoy when they work out. When they don't its water under the bridge (Except for March 2013. I needed a healing period after that. LOL). I can see how fishing does exercise the patience muscle...lol Some snow misses do leave a mark just like a heartbreaking loss for your favorite sports team! But I'm slowly realizing just how much of a crap shoot getting snow around here can be sometimes. And each threat is unique (at least when it's a different threat with a different kind of pattern). It is difficult to keep your emotions out of it when ya love it (and near-misses like today really hurt, lol)...but you're right, we gotta take the shots as they come. And I agree about the next two weeks in comparison to what we've had so far. So far, it's like we've barely possessed the football, and the three possessions we've had have resulted in an INT and two fumbles, lol At least now we "possess the football" and can start taking some shots down the field! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Euro ensembles on TT look like January, 2015 for NE and more of the same winter of 16/17 for us. Maybe someone with Wxbell or other pay site can say otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Euro ensembles on TT look like January, 2015 for NE and more of the same winter of 16/17 for us. Maybe someone with Wxbell or other pay site can say otherwise. No their a bad look. Trough is further east then gefs so very little chance day 6-7 because the northern stream dives in to our north. Then later on they do undercut the ridge but they blowtorch the conus first so the system that develops is probably rain. Not much to say except the look isn't miles from what we need it's just a little off. Hope the gefs look is right and EPS trends better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 - anomalies off the southeast coast from the 50/50 low being too far south makes it hard to get a storm to track up the coast. Also there's a great lakes low and no high over New England. On the positive side, we pulled off a 6-10" on Xmas eve 1966 from a similar setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Weeklies suck after week 3. Lol. Shocker! AO is very positive and the east looks warm most of the time due to the PNA being negative at times. If it's not going to snow in march them I'm good with warm days. It's not a torch or anything. Just typical ups and downs with a warm bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 It's over. This is one for the record books, just not in the way we like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Weeklies suck after week 3. Lol. Shocker! AO is very positive and the east looks warm most of the time due to the PNA being negative at times. If it's not going to snow in march them I'm good with warm days. It's not a torch or anything. Just typical ups and downs with a warm bias. I agree. If we get through this nice blocky pattern without snow I will be ready to put this winter behind us and bring on the warmth. Took a look at the ensembles from today and still dont really see a signal for any specific winter storm. Pattern still looks blocky with cold around so I guess i will be pulling for one of those northern stream systems to show up in the right spot inside 4 days. This is the best period we have had pattern wise all year so its certainly possible that something pops up in the short or medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 19 minutes ago, PhineasC said: It's over. This is one for the record books, just not in the way we like. Let's just ignore the existence of goofus and vote para! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Weeklies suck after week 3. Lol. Shocker! AO is very positive and the east looks warm most of the time due to the PNA being negative at times. If it's not going to snow in march them I'm good with warm days. It's not a torch or anything. Just typical ups and downs with a warm bias. They are pretty bad. But they have been flipping almost every run so I'll wait before over reacting. There are obviousky conflicting signals giving the guidance fits long range. It was supposed to be cold this week and we had record highs. Next week was supposed to be warm and it's getting cold. If you shift the trough east just a bit the weeklies aren't that bad week 4. Not a huge error. 18z gefs looks interesting to me. Not a lot of big hits in the snow maps but just looking at the precip and slp maps there seem to be a lot of members that are at least close to a big result. Several that bring a stj wave up and interact with something diving down. Oddly the precip is pretty light but it shows potential. Again lots of lows around the east coast day 14-15. Root for the gefs to be better then the EPS. The gefs has quietly won a few battles lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 2 hours ago, BTRWx said: Let's just ignore the existence of goofus and vote para! What I wouldn't give for the Para! Lol But seriously, is there still potential for that 17th-19th period? (Seems the EURO and GFS can't quite catch it...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Perhaps I don't understand what I'm looking at, but...seems like for next week, nothing is able to come up the coast at all (at least per the current GFS runs). Perhaps this will be a pattern where the short-medium range threats are the more realistic runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 GFS GGEM and UKMET all agree next week storm gets squished. Not waiting for EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, Amped said: GFS GGEM and UKMET all agree next week storm gets squished. Not waiting for EURO That's what I thought...Eh, guess we may have to look to the 200+ hour range (unless something pops up in the short/medium range. Otherwise it'll be one week of a good pattern wasted, smh) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: That's what I thought...Eh, guess we may have to look to the 200+ hour range (unless something pops up in the short/medium range. Otherwise it'll be one week of a good pattern wasted, smh) Yeah, I don't see how we are going to get a snowstorm next week, heights off the east coast are just too flat for any southern stream system, and that 516 northern stream is not going to dive into Kentucky and spawn it's own low off the Del Marva like 2/10/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Pretty impressive signal on the GEFS for something around Feb 23-25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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