eurojosh Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: If anybody is looking for wx porn in the wake of the recent disaster...loop the 6z para starting @ hr192. Nice dance move. Like a pole dance but in a weather kinda of way...lol. With a happy ending. On the one hand, this just looks like a new and unlikely way to screw us... On the other hand, it's 48 hours of snow, so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 17 minutes ago, stormtracker said: ****. I thought this was the next week deal. Back on the ledge 23 minutes ago, mitchnick said: you did notice, didn't you, that the maps were for 336 hrs. and 348 hrs., putting us at February 24th? 23 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: Well the operational GFS likes the idea of a BIG storm on the 23rd (only two weeks away) too. Meaningful? Yea it's a long ways. But it's the kind of threat that could have some stability and the ability for guidance to sniff it out in some form early. It's all set in motion by the very anomalous blocking day 5-8 and the deepening of the trough into the 50/50 region. Those two things seem pretty consistent across guidance and are significant large scale features. Less finicky then timing vorts in a progressive pattern. Those two features set up a domino effect that results in the threat later. So while it's forever away it's a better long range probability then we have had in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 37 minutes ago, gopper said: I agree 100% with your observation Mitch! I am not one who posts often due to limited knowledge of the dynamics and physics of this science, but I have about the same amount of experiential knowledge as you do in that I have lived in this area for my whole life of nearly 50 years now. Some winters it wants to snow at the drop of a hat even when all indices say that it should not be favorable for snow. And other winters just stink, despite all of the upper atmosphere components lining up just right. This is one of those years. I was hoping that this morning's snow was going to be the well needed "fluke". Perhaps March will serve up a nice pretty tree topper with plops that fall on our heads as we walk under the trees. i am with both you and mitch and i have lived here for 60 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 31 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: Well the operational GFS likes the idea of a BIG storm on the 23rd (only two weeks away) too. Meaningful? Given how this winter has been so far...I think any mention of anything beyond 7-9 days here will be met with nothing short of complete cynicism, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Maybe. (will delete if not good) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 15 minutes ago, Ji said: where is roger smith when you need 8-14 inches from a storm that has potential to give you 1-3? funny since the storm blew thru here with nothing, he hasnt popped in to explain his miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 41 minutes ago, gopper said: I agree 100% with your observation Mitch! I am not one who posts often due to limited knowledge of the dynamics and physics of this science, but I have about the same amount of experiential knowledge as you do in that I have lived in this area for my whole life of nearly 50 years now. Some winters it wants to snow at the drop of a hat even when all indices say that it should not be favorable for snow. And other winters just stink, despite all of the upper atmosphere components lining up just right. This is one of those years. I was hoping that this morning's snow was going to be the well needed "fluke". Perhaps March will serve up a nice pretty tree topper with plops that fall on our heads as we walk under the trees. 3 minutes ago, mdsnowlover said: i am with both you and mitch and i have lived here for 60 years. I guess it's the old f@rts vs. the yutes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 I wouldn't sleep on this regardless of what the models show at the surface right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, mdsnowlover said: funny since the storm blew thru here with nothing, he hasnt popped in to explain his miss. what's he going to say? I always wanted to be like Joe Bastardi? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: what's he going to say? I always wanted to be like Joe Bastardi? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Given how this winter has been so far...I think any mention of anything beyond 7-9 days here will be met with nothing short of complete cynicism, lol Which becomes tiresome in this thread. We had this same EXACT thing happen in early Feb 2015. The panic room was loaded with jumpers. Anytime a pattern change was talked about it was met with a barrage of cynicism and despair. The rest is history. 2015 was better up until the Vday flip but not by much. It was a pretty crappy year until mid Feb I'm not saying that we magically flip or anything. But discounting all talk about potential just because your feelings are hurt really adds nothing. I don't see a shutout pattern on any guidance anywhere. If I did I would first to say I think the month is toast. But it isn't. Not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 I would be very surprised if the system at day 5-6 doesn't come north enough to give us precip. What type, I won't speculate. I am referring to the gfs ens members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Which becomes tiresome in this thread. We had this same EXACT thing happen in early Feb 2015. The panic room was loaded with jumpers. Anytime a pattern change was talked about it was met with a barrage of cynicism and despair. The rest is history. 2015 was better up until the Vday flip but not by much. It was a pretty crappy year until mid Feb I'm not saying that we magically flip or anything. But discounting all talk about potential just because your feelings are hurt really adds nothing. I don't see a shutout pattern on any guidance anywhere. If I did I would first to say I think the month is toast. But it isn't. Not even close. If I'm not mistaken, that was also the year of the VERY cold early March storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I wouldn't sleep on this regardless of what the models show at the surface right now. I'm not going to argue with you one bit that the potential exists and the consensus solution has a ways to go and may be great for us. Where we differ is that you believe that one of these has got to eventually work out for us and my thought is, wanna' bet? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Man do I wish I had vort maps from the euro coming in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: I would be very surprised if the system at day 5-6 doesn't come north enough to give us precip. What type, I won't speculate. I am referring to the gfs ens members. Euro is very interesting at the upper levels. Doesn't phase with the southern stuff but real close to a nice closed ULL pass on the heels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, BTRWx said: Man do I wish I had vort maps from the euro coming in! try here http://vortex.plymouth.edu/myo/fx/ctrmap.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Euro is very interesting at the upper levels. Doesn't phase with the southern stuff but real close to a nice closed ULL pass on the heels. This isn't a phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Which becomes tiresome in this thread. We had this same EXACT thing happen in early Feb 2015. The panic room was loaded with jumpers. Anytime a pattern change was talked about it was met with a barrage of cynicism and despair. The rest is history. 2015 was better up until the Vday flip but not by much. It was a pretty crappy year until mid Feb I'm not saying that we magically flip or anything. But discounting all talk about potential just because your feelings are hurt really adds nothing. I don't see a shutout pattern on any guidance anywhere. If I did I would first to say I think the month is toast. But it isn't. Not even close. My feeling 100% but I decided just now I'm simply going to ignore all the "this is a waste" or "it can't snow" comments and try to just make analysis and read the posts that want to speculate not complain. I'm wasting my time. Hopefully it doesn't get out of control and turn the thread into a dumpster fire. I almost think that's what some people want. Unless the pattern turns ugly and it does look over them I'll be there with everyone else holding a torch and carrying gasoline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just now, BTRWx said: This isn't a phase? No, the southern stuff gets booted. It's a partial but was too late for us. Could be another SNE nuke though. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 11 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I guess it's the old f@rts vs. the yutes! What? What's a "yute"? You mean "y-o-u-TH-s"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Time and seasonal trend are on our side. Seriously, the storm yesterday that missed to our NORTH wasn't even on either of the ops at this range (Day 5-6). We got this one and it won't be 80 degrees 24 hours before either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: try here http://vortex.plymouth.edu/myo/fx/ctrmap.html Thanks, but those maps aren't very user-friendly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Which becomes tiresome in this thread. We had this same EXACT thing happen in early Feb 2015. The panic room was loaded with jumpers. Anytime a pattern change was talked about it was met with a barrage of cynicism and despair. The rest is history. 2015 was better up until the Vday flip but not by much. It was a pretty crappy year until mid Feb I'm not saying that we magically flip or anything. But discounting all talk about potential just because your feelings are hurt really adds nothing. I don't see a shutout pattern on any guidance anywhere. If I did I would first to say I think the month is toast. But it isn't. Not even close. Yeah, I remember that in 2015. Crappy December, January had the one nice clipper early then back to mostly crappy, first week of February sucked. Then...WHAM!...starting with the Valentine's Day blast. I don't expect we'll get the level of flip that we got in 2015...that was quite dramatic, similar to what happened in 2007. This is a totally different year and set-up. But I don't want to be overly cynical either and say we're not going to get anything the rest of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: My feeling 100% but I decided just now I'm simply going to ignore all the "this is a waste" or "it can't snow" comments and try to just make analysis and read the posts that want to speculate not complain. I'm wasting my time. Hopefully it doesn't get out of control and turn the thread into a dumpster fire. I almost think that's what some people want. Unless the pattern turns ugly and it does look over them I'll be there with everyone else holding a torch and carrying gasoline. My apologies......I mean, I'm hopeful, but I'll try not to say anything negative (and if I do, delete my comment) I'll just try and watch...and learn...Patience is difficult, but you guys have been doin' this a lot longer than I have. I'm slowly learning about pattern progressions and such...Again, my apologies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 11 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I'm not going to argue with you one bit that the potential exists and the consensus solution has a ways to go and may be great for us. Where we differ is that you believe that one of these has got to eventually work out for us and my thought is, wanna' bet? lol I'm not so sure PSU is necessarily saying "one of these has got to eventually work out for us", as if it absolutely will for sure. I think it's more to say that the potential is certainly there, it's not like the advertised pattern has absolutely no chance whatsoever and that we may as well pack it in. We may well score nothing at all the rest of the year despite how it looks, and this will go down as one of the awful ones, who knows. But that look on the ensembles lately suggests we should at least have our chances. If the pattern evolves like that and we get screwed with nothing, then that's simply getting screwed with bad luck or bad timing...not because there's no chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I wouldn't sleep on this regardless of what the models show at the surface right now. That is a nice look, if we can get something out of it! Looping back through other cycles, it's been consistently showing that same overall pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: My apologies......I mean, I'm hopeful, but I'll try not to say anything negative (and if I do, delete my comment) I'll just try and watch...and learn...Patience is difficult, but you guys have been doin' this a lot longer than I have. I'm slowly learning about pattern progressions and such...Again, my apologies. We're all different and think differently. I seem to be a bit of anomaly around here. It's not that I'm over optimistic or anything. I was like that for years early on (back in the easternwx days). I simply try and maintain an objective view and don't let previous fail bias get in the way of my logic. Each potential threat is unique on its own merits regardless. Yes, it does "feel" like it just doesn't want to snow here. But in reality we really haven't had the pieces in place. Each legit threat has been inherently flawed. And there haven't been that many to begin with. Sometimes those flawed events break our way but they normally don't. The next 2 weeks look as good as any 2 week period we've seen so far. I'm an avid fisherman. I can go 5 days in a row without getting a single bite. But that never stops me from going out over and over because great days happen and I really enjoy the sport. I'm the same way with tracking winter wx. I'll keep doing it objectively and enjoy when they work out. When they don't its water under the bridge (Except for March 2013. I needed a healing period after that. LOL). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Here's a good look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I'm not going to argue with you one bit that the potential exists and the consensus solution has a ways to go and may be great for us. Where we differ is that you believe that one of these has got to eventually work out for us and my thought is, wanna' bet? lol No I don't. In reality I doubt we're as far apart on our feelings of the winter it's just I don't feel that the "this sucks" skepticism adds anything to the discussion. I definitely think we could get a shutout. Looking at the pattern do I think it's for sure, no. We will have a few more rolls of the dice. But we will need luck. But it will snow again sometime and it might as well be sooner rather then later. I'm an optimist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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