poolz1 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: The what now? Lol lol...joking of course https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujiwhara_effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 If the next 10 days were to play out like the gfs or cmc shows I'll be convinced that God is punishing us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Euro isn't that bad from what I see on TT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 6 hours ago, Bob Chill said: If the next 10 days were to play out like the gfs or cmc shows I'll be convinced that God is punishing us. Like I said several weeks ago, some years it just can't snow. Until it does, assume it won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 I see no discernible signal for a favorable storm for this area on the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Let's be clear - a real chance at a top 3 worst winter at each airport is on the table now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 6 hours ago, AlaskaETC said: Euro isn't that bad from what I see on TT. No signs of life for the day 7-8 threat on 0Z Euro? I see a 984 low over eastern Mass, wondering how it got there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 No signs of life for the day 7-8 threat on 0Z Euro? I see a 984 low over eastern Mass, wondering how it got there. It got there by not giving us snowSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 10 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: No signs of life for the day 7-8 threat on 0Z Euro? I see a 984 low over eastern Mass, wondering how it got there. There is a storm. Verbatim its rain in our region. Too much low pressure up north. Just about all the ens members have a NS low for that period. As modeled its going to be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: There is a storm. Verbatim its rain in our region. Too much low pressure up north. Just about all the ens members have a NS low for that period. As modeled its going to be a problem. Thanks for the response. I know I shouldn't ask IMBY questions but judging by free maps it looks like the ridges in WV/PA/MD have a shot at something as the low passes or at the very least it looks like maybe a favorable upslope set up during the CAA after it passes. Trying to decide whether or not to plan a trip up to Canaan for presidents weekend. Can you shed any light on what the Euro shows for this area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Thanks for the response. I know I shouldn't ask IMBY questions but judging by free maps it looks like the ridges in WV/PA/MD have a shot at something as the low passes or at the very least it looks like maybe a favorable upslope set up during the CAA. Trying to decide whether or not to plan a trip up to Canaan for presidents weekend. Can you shed any light on what the Euro shows for this area? Verbatim on the 0z Euro op, Canaan would get snow with that storm and in its wake. Fwiw, the accumulated snow for that area is about a foot at day 8. That would include whatever fell last night/this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 59 minutes ago, Ji said: It got there by not giving us snow Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk This made me laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Verbatim on the 0z Euro op, Canaan would get snow with that storm and in its wake. Fwiw, the accumulated snow for that area is about a foot at day 8. That would include whatever fell last night/this morning. Goody for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Psu- thoughts on this rolling into a decent look? Potential to for the West Coast trough swinging east and maybe those higher heights back in the nao space? Need something to discuss post today's debacle ughhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: Psu- thoughts on this rolling into a decent look? Potential to for the West Coast trough swinging east and maybe those higher heights back in the nao space? Need something to discuss post today's debacle ughhh you forgot to add this gem....the accompanying 850 temp anomalies lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: you forgot to add this gem....the accompanying 850 temp anomalies lol Well the cfs from like a week ago looks about right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 2 hours ago, Ji said: It got there by not giving us snow Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Well at least this one is falling apart early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 There is still potential for late next week, but there is just so much NS energy its pretty easy to come up with all the ways it wont work. Beyond that, as someone posted above, heights do build but it looks transient and the advertised pattern gets pretty decent again. As Bob mentioned yesterday, its close to a late winter 2014/15 look, with a big EPO ridge. GEFS looks better than the EPS but similar idea. Question is how much cold does it tap up top and send down our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 We're getting into the range where I'll start to look at specifics and those specifics suck right now as noted above. But the overall mean pattern is a loaded one and some small adjustments in the timing of the northern stream energy and suddenly we have a storm. I see two ways this could work. Either get the northern stream system that dives in right ahead of the stj to either speed up and get out of the way or slow down and become a possible phase. After that we could get a northern wave to dive into the trough as it's loaded and ready to pop anything for a couple days. I'm disappointed in the look of the details right now but given the pattern they could change. Then things relax for a few days. After that it appears the nao breaks down and I fount it's a coincidence that happens as the mjo fades. The question is does the epo take over enough to hold the trough in the east. If it does we're looking at an arctic connection and this time of year that can work well. The gefs says YES. EPS says maybe. Geps says no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 very interesting quote from joe d'aleo of weatherbell from his update today regarding east coast storms in the next 10 days as he was talking about BTW, if this i MJO triggered, the phase 7 we are entering is a wet pattern northeast but phase 8 dry and cold northeast and phase 1 wet Mid Attlantic and cold in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Great except not all the guidance gets it into 1. Most gets into 8 then fades and hints at a recycle late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: There is still potential for late next week, but there is just so much NS energy its pretty easy to come up with all the ways it wont work. Beyond that, as someone posted above, heights do build but it looks transient and the advertised pattern gets pretty decent again. As Bob mentioned yesterday, its close to a late winter 2014/15 look, with a big EPO ridge. GEFS looks better than the EPS but similar idea. Question is how much cold does it tap up top and send down our way. I'd post it if I could clear my dumb attachments folder but click through the 6z GEFS low location panels on wxbell. That late threat looks really good at range. It's a very 2014 or 15 type of storm progression. Departing 50/50 / good trough alignment / +NAO / nice shortwave rounding the base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Oddly the euro looks the worst for snow late but the EPS gets the mjo into phase 1. Gefs fades into cod and looks better. These indexes aren't universal fixes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: I'd post it if I could clear my dumb attachments folder but click through the 6z GEFS low location panels on wxbell. That late threat looks really good at range. It's a very 2014 or 15 type of storm progression. Departing 50/50 / good trough alignment / +NAO / nice shortwave rounding the base. Oh, i tired to see if I could do a mass clearing...I can't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 If anybody is looking for wx porn in the wake of the recent disaster...loop the 6z para starting @ hr192. Nice dance move. Like a pole dance but in a weather kinda of way...lol. With a happy ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'd post it if I could clear my dumb attachments folder but click through the 6z GEFS low location panels on wxbell. That late threat looks really good at range. It's a very 2014 or 15 type of storm progression. Departing 50/50 / good trough alignment / +NAO / nice shortwave rounding the base. Yea that late window on the gefs looks classic. Nao breaks down. Epo ridge. Departing 50/50. A lot to like. The EPS is less ideal but it's close enough to think the gefs has validity. Plus the EPS has been very bigly overdoing the progression of the ridging into the east. Go back a week and it had a torch for when out day 7 threat is. The gefs was the first to see the trough in the east there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If anybody is looking for wx porn in the wake of the recent disaster...loop the 6z para starting @ hr192. Nice dance move. Like a pole dance but in a weather kinda of way...lol. With a happy ending. Haha, that's perhaps quite an apt description! I saw what you're talking about in the 06Z Para...another solution, another possibility I suppose, but a good one! The 2-m temperatures and the precip type plots on TT looked a bit wonky given how good the mid and upper levels appeared, but at this stage out, I guess those details don't much matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 So what are we rooting for to make the late next week threat happen? Do we need the southern jet s/w to dig less so it can hook up with the northern stream? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If anybody is looking for wx porn in the wake of the recent disaster...loop the 6z para starting @ hr192. Nice dance move. Like a pole dance but in a weather kinda of way...lol. With a happy ending. it's 6" of snow imby.....soft porn I guess lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If anybody is looking for wx porn in the wake of the recent disaster...loop the 6z para starting @ hr192. Nice dance move. Like a pole dance but in a weather kinda of way...lol. With a happy ending. Love when you talk dirty. There have been a few nice solutions mixed in run to run to keep the period as a legit threat. This is way too nice an overall look to say no chance. Yes nitpicking the northern stream is in the way but that can change in 6 days and then this look is great. Plus even if it does phase late it sets up another chance a few days later as the nao breaks down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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