poolz1 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Decent eps run. Better than the 00z imho. Mean snowfall shows definite uptick during the next two threat periods. 50/50 on whether we end up on the right side of things but the signal is there for two rather potent systems. I will say that the h5 look has trended the wrong way in the lr with respect to the hlb. Maybe we can score on one or both of those systems and then I hope we can just be put out of our misery. lol These lr looks remind me of golf...I'm usually pissed off the first 17 holes and then I play just well enough on hole 18 to say "hey I think i'll give this game another try." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 As you all covered earlier it seems most likely that the northern stream is going to interfere on this one to some extent, but of course what we have going for us is that this is still 7-8 days out and models tend to struggle with northern stream placement and intensities at range, so there is plenty of time to slow down or speed up that northern stream system, or replace it with a high, even if that's looking like a lower probability scenario at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Pretty sure the default setting for this godforsaken winter is that the great lakes low will be in the wrong place at the wrong time and we will get nothing again. Whatever results in our area getting nothing, that's what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 12 minutes ago, kurtstack said: As you all covered earlier it seems most likely that the northern stream is going to interfere on this one to some extent, but of course what we have going for us is that this is still 7-8 days out and models tend to struggle with northern stream placement and intensities at range, so there is plenty of time to slow down or speed up that northern stream system, or replace it with a high, even if that's looking like a lower probability scenario at this point. Why do you say replacing it with a high is lower probability? I know the 12z was squashed, but it did have somewhat of a high where the EURO had a low... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 EPS still pretty weak with the signal for the d7-8 period. Maybe 25% of the members have a snow solution. Not a very good sign at this range but nothing is decided of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: EPS still pretty weak with the signal for the d7-8 period. Maybe 25% of the members have a snow solution. Not a very good sign at this range but nothing is decided of course. I have crossed over to despondent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: EPS still pretty weak with the signal for the d7-8 period. Maybe 25% of the members have a snow solution. Not a very good sign at this range but nothing is decided of course. Sounds more yet another LR threat about to go "poof"....mercy, I hope not. I feel like next week (or perhaps just after PD weekend) may indeed be our last window... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Sounds more yet another LR threat about to go "poof"....mercy, I hope not. I feel like next week (or perhaps just after PD weekend) may indeed be our last window... The pattern still looks pretty good for both the day 7 and day 15 threats. Too soon to freak out over specific runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 39 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: EPS still pretty weak with the signal for the d7-8 period. Maybe 25% of the members have a snow solution. Not a very good sign at this range but nothing is decided of course. There weren't too many ens members showing this storm at much of a range iirc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: There weren't too many ens members showing this storm at much of a range iirc. I think there was a few runs that had something, then all guidance squashed it, then the GFS op brought it back as a super suppressed wave with snow on the outer banks of NC. Cant recall any details about ens support at that range. But yeah, lots can change lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: I think there was a few runs that had something, then all guidance squashed it, then the GFS op brought it back as a super suppressed wave with snow on the outer banks of NC. Cant recall any details about ens support at that range. But yeah, lots can change lol. Agreed. The northern stream is zipping along. There is zero way to know how things will line up. I'm surprised that a phase seems almost totally off the table already though. A closed low coming out of the SW with an active northern stream digging down is a pretty good way to get one. I'm sorta torn on what exactly to root for. A low in the northern stream could be the only way to get the southern shortwave up to our latitude. Looking through the EPS there a # of solutions with a west track because a northern stream low opens the door early. That's not anything we want to root for but seeing a cluster showing a west track is interesting at least. And also shows just how uncertain it is. Heck, the low location plots don't look like a regular shotgun style spread. It looks like a sawed off pump shotgun taking out the eastern third of the country. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Agreed. The northern stream is zipping along. There is zero way to know how things will line up. I'm surprised that a phase seems almost totally off the table already though. A closed low coming out of the SW with an active northern stream digging down is a pretty good way to get one. I'm sorta torn on what exactly to root for. A low in the northern stream could be the only way to get the southern shortwave up to our latitude. Looking through the EPS there a # of solutions with a west track because a northern stream low opens the door early. That's not anything we want to root for but seeing a cluster showing a west track is interesting at least. And also shows just how uncertain it is. Heck, the low location plots don't look like a regular shotgun style spread. It looks like a sawed off pump shotgun taking out the eastern third of the country. LOL Ha good way to describe it. Looking at the spread on the low locations, seems there is mass confusion on exactly how to handle the ns and ss energy. I don't know what to think. My gut says some sort of a phase is our best shot, but not sure if that can happen in time. I wanna root for it, but it seems somewhat unlikely at this point. It shall be interesting to watch transpire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 18z gfs shows why worrying about the surface on an op is pointless. The stj system meanders off then a northern stream system dives in and gets it done without any stj help. Slow the stj down 6 hours and speed the northern up 6 and we have an absolute monster bomb. Too many moving parts. As for what to root for i think without any phase things are too blocked up to get the stj up here. Our best bet is either getting something digging in behind it to phase and pull it up or even just the 18z idea of a northern system forced under by the blocking. At this range both the gfs and especially the euro were way off with tonight's storm so worrying too much about these details is a waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 PSU, have you noticed the ensembles starting too look like a version of late Feb 2014 & 15 at the ends of their runs? Especially the 18z gefs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: PSU, have you noticed the ensembles starting too look like a version of late Feb 2014 & 15 at the ends of their runs? Especially the 18z gefs lol I had not looked at the 18z ens run. But damn, that really does have the same kind of look. Big epo ridge, not much of any blocking in the NAO region to speak of. I would take that. Those were really fun periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I had not looked at the 18z ens run. But damn, that really does have the same kind of look. Big epo ridge, not much of any blocking in the NAO region to speak of. I would take that. Those were really fun periods. Now, refresh my memory...why were those fun periods? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Now, refresh my memory...why were those fun periods? Lots of trackable "smaller" events that mostly delivered. We had periods of extreme cold, although it was changeable due to the lack of any blocking. Big amped storms would cut, but cold would follow. Pacific driven with the huge EPO ridge and mostly NS systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 16 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Lots of trackable "smaller" events that mostly delivered. We had periods of extreme cold, although it was changeable due to the lack of any blocking. Big amped storms would cut, but cold would follow. Pacific driven with the huge EPO ridge and mostly NS systems. Once we get to March an arctic connection becomes nearly a requirement to get snow. Especially multiple snows like 14&15. I'll gladly trade blocking for cross polar flow/arctic intrusions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 29 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Once we get to March an arctic connection becomes nearly a requirement to get snow. Especially multiple snows like 14&15. I'll gladly trade blocking for cross polar flow/arctic intrusions. Yeah it was pretty amazing in early March of 2015, with a fresh 6" of snow on the ground and a morning low of 0, taking a hike at Terrapin park and looking out at the frozen, snow covered bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: PSU, have you noticed the ensembles starting too look like a version of late Feb 2014 & 15 at the ends of their runs? Especially the 18z gefs lol Yes but one difference there was really good blocking before that period this year so there is potential for a big storm around day 13-15 as it breaks down. After that the epo looks to take over like 14-15. I'm also not sold the nao doesn't reload like the euro weeklies had. Either way the pattern looks just fine to me. We will have chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yes but one difference there was really good blocking before that period this year so there is potential for a big storm around day 13-15 as it breaks down. After that the epo looks to take over like 14-15. I'm also not sold the nao doesn't reload like the euro weeklies had. Either way the pattern looks just fine to me. We will have chances. Do the eps look similar to the gefs? Anyone can answer. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 8 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Do the eps look similar to the gefs? Anyone can answer. Lol Fairly close yea. Epo ridge with jet cutting under. Trough in the east. Another one crashing the west but with higher heights over Canada it's likely going to slide under also in the day 16-20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Must admit I got a kick out of listening to Jason Samenow on 88.5 late this afternoon. After explaining why DC was unlikely to get much snow tomorrow morning (he thought the cold should be here by 7 but was unsure if any moisture would be left) he mentioned that the pattern two-to-three- weeks in the future looks encouraging for snow. Doesn't that sound familiar! Didn't promise any snow of course. Gosh I hope he's right but perhaps all he and optimists here are seeing are models' climatological cold and stormy biases. Of course, it snows in reality too, but not nearly as often. Still hoping for and expecting a 2"+ storm this winter - perhaps in that over-the-rainbow week 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Fairly close yea. Epo ridge with jet cutting under. Trough in the east. Another one crashing the west but with higher heights over Canada it's likely going to slide under also in the day 16-20 Thanks. I wonder why the geps continue to look butt-ugly. I could see gefs on their own but usually not the geps, at least when I've looked at them over the past few years. Ahh, who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 9 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Thanks. I wonder why the geps continue to look butt-ugly. I could see gefs on their own but usually not the geps, at least when I've looked at them over the past few years. Ahh, who knows. I don't know but I can say the geps have been on their own a lot the last few weeks and doing awful. They were the last to catch the flip to a -nao in the day 5-10 period coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Nevermind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Actually...in comparison to the 18z...Isn't this a tick or two better? (Surely plenty of time for adjustment? It was further south at 18z...A bit more north here) I mean, that northern stream and 1030 HP weren't there earlier! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 It's going to just miss the phase this run but it's still there as a threat. Several ways it could work or fail. Loaded setup but lots of waves playing off each other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 GFS trying for the fujiwhara.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, poolz1 said: GFS trying for the fujiwhara.... The what now? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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