pasnownut Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 22 minutes ago, mappy said: I have no idea what this means, but I think it's good? that low off of Nova Scotia retrogrades into the 50/50 block position that you hear of which helps to steer storms under us, not over. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Well, considering the current storm is going to be a swing and a miss for DC, Im back in here. 18z GEFS doesn't seem to like the Day 9 storm but I may be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 49 minutes ago, mitchnick said: The surface low pressure systems in the Atlantic are moving west instead of east. That helps to pump the ridging in Greenland. Whatever. Book it. We aren't getting bupkis tomorrow. What a waste of time. Fantasyland much better reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 GFS/GGEM with wet paste bombs around the 16th. GFS is like 6" NW Suburbs, GGEM is like 12". Lol what a weenie run GGEM is tonight....for the northern burbs mostly. Tropical tidbits map is luls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Bob, when you get a chance, can you explain why the Euro doesn't get any precious up our way for that Day 8 threat? When you look at the MSLP maps it looks like that SLP is in a great spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 18 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Bob, when you get a chance, can you explain why the Euro doesn't get any precious up our way for that Day 8 threat? When you look at the MSLP maps it looks like that SLP is in a great spot. I'm not Bob but when i look at the upper level maps the steering flow at 168 hr is more E-W oriented over the EC which means(to me) that any precip will get shunted off to the east before it can climb. By the time the upper low gets into a good spot the surface low is too far off the coast. The timing for the two look to be off. But this is trying to glean things from the 24hr panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 hour ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Bob, when you get a chance, can you explain why the Euro doesn't get any precious up our way for that Day 8 threat? When you look at the MSLP maps it looks like that SLP is in a great spot. Also not Bob but from a quick look at the h5 and mslp the problem I see, as Bob has pointed out, is how the stj system and the northern branch are out of phase. Its too far out to worry and we have seen plenty of runs that show a good outcome so I am not worrying about this yet but it is how this could go wrong. On the euro the northern branch sends a system across in tandem with the STJ. What we really want is the STJ system to be a little out ahead of any northern system, that then allows the stj to turn the corner out ahead of the trough axis and then if the northern branch digs enough it pulls into the system and they phase. The real simple explanation is you want to see one consolidated center of low pressure with high pressure to its north. Multiple lows on the playing field to interfere with the flow and moisture transport to develop a healthy precip shield. This is the euro, now imagine there was a high pressure where the low over the lakes is. The flow around the high is perfect not just to keep the cold in, but also to create convergence and lift and enhance the frontogenetic forces along the baroclinic zone. Basically the circulation coming together between the high and the low creates a zone of lift. THe circulation also helps the low to develop a closed circulation and aid in moisture transport to the left of the low track. (wrap around). Now look at the circulation that the euro actually shows and you can see the problem. No convergence, no lift, lack of precip, and no closed circulation so no wrap around. Finally this is 24 hours later, and shows why miller b storms often screw us over. We are further inland then the other coastal cities. When a storm secondaries it typically transfers to just off the coast where the baroclinic zone often is during the winter. (temp contrast between colder land and warmer water). Being further inland we need a healthy moisture transport to the west of the low. As soon as the secondary takes over the moisture transport to the old primary low is cut off and the precip starts to die. The moisture transport to the west of the new secondary, though, is disrupted by the left over circulation of the primary inland low. This is why the miller b often has a tighter precip shield and dry slot develops inland initially until the old primary dies and allows the secondary to develop a mature CCB (cold conveyor belt precip shield) just in time to blast places to our northeast. This here is still way too far northeast even for that scenario but just imagine the secondary is tucked in off VA beach and the primary is over WV...same problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 There is definitely a signal for a storm on the 0z EPS. Looking through the panels for the individual members, there is the usual spread for a day 7+ threat, but quite a few have favorable low tracks for this general area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 3 hours ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Bob, when you get a chance, can you explain why the Euro doesn't get any precious up our way for that Day 8 threat? When you look at the MSLP maps it looks like that SLP is in a great spot. PSU's response is absolutely perfect. I looked through the eps members. Unfortunately, far too many have the NS low screwing things up. Very few phases in the mix. The best hits don't have the northern stream low and have high pressure moving across. This scenario is perfectly illustrated by PSU's response. There are 3 basic scenarios right now that could give us snow 1. Phased bomb with the northern stream (least likely attm) 2. Some sort of convoluted dance between the lows that gives us "something" (most likely if we get any snow at all) 3. Northern stream low gets out of the way or doesn't exist and we get a more classic miller A storm (sacrifice chickens and stuff and hope this happens) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Well now that we're screwed with this upcoming storm, might as well camp back in here to talk about our next screwing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, stormtracker said: Well now that we're screwed with this upcoming storm, might as well camp back in here to talk about our next screwing. Smh (I see the tear has returned, lol) The 12z GFS is already tryingto take it away (showing a complete OTS to the south). Just one run, though...so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well now that we're screwed with this upcoming storm, might as well camp back in here to talk about our next screwing. Well, I only gave it a quick look but the ops 12Z GFS looks pretty "meh", as in the storm is well south. That said, the system is still there in general, but too far south to phase much. I didn't care for the look in the later time periods, but again, it's a deterministic model. The GEFS mean looked better to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Smh (I see the tear has returned, lol) The 12z GFS is already tryingto take it away (showing a complete OTS to the south). Just one run, though...so we'll see. No real reason to expect otherwise this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Well, I only gave it a quick look but the ops 12Z GFS looks pretty "meh", as in the storm is well south. That said, the system is still there in general, but too far south to phase much. I didn't care for the look in the later time periods, but again, it's a deterministic model. The GEFS mean looked better to me. This storm now was squashed to nothing off the SE coast 4 days ago.... just sayin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: This storm now was squashed to nothing off the SE coast 4 days ago.... just sayin thats what I was just thinking. With new pattern establishing itself, i'd think mild/wild swings on Op runs is to be par for the course in the short term. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This storm now was squashed to nothing off the SE coast 4 days ago.... just sayin Oh, I know. I was just reporting what the current 12Z ops GFS shows for our next hope. Right now, I think the key is that there's something still there that has potential. Have not seen individual GEFS members, but I thought the overall pattern look of the GEFS mean was not half bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 I'm just happy the pattern looks like it has a lot of potential. I'm not even worried about a specific storm until the current one clears out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 18 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Smh (I see the tear has returned, lol) The 12z GFS is already tryingto take it away (showing a complete OTS to the south). Just one run, though...so we'll see. I saw that..I'm going to see what the Euro has. I'll still hang in there for a long while though, it's 8 days away, plenty of time for this to screw us even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 ECMWF doesn't look that suppressed compared to the GFS/CMC, but can't tell if the precipitation shield is any better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Fall is only 7 months away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Wow that is the mother of all storms hitting the WC after 192hrs. Better book a trip to Cali while it's still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1st image is 168 and second one is 192. Be curious to see what's in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Porsche said: 1st image is 168 and second one is 192. Be curious to see what's in between. Now, that H in the upper right hand corner somewhat of a "Greenland Block"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Now, that H in the upper right hand corner somewhat of a "Greenland Block"? if it were about 500+ miles closer to Greenland....Yes Could help for the storm, but likely transient. Would need to look at later panels. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: if it were about 500+ miles closer to Greenland....Yes Could help for the storm, but likely transient. Would need to look at later panels. Nut *shamefully hides in corner for geography fail* I believe I was thinking about the global panel in terms of where Greenland was, lol But hopefully we can establish something on future runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 We need to lose the low to the north moving across in tandem with the southern energy. Even if the precip made it here on the 12z euro, the return flow with the low to the north screws up the surface in advance. Midlevels are ok but Like PSU showed earlier, we need a hp (even a weak one) to the north to feed everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We need to lose the low to the north moving across in tandem with the southern energy. Even if the precip made it here on the 12z euro, the return flow with the low to the north screws up the surface in advance. Midlevels are ok but Like PSU showed earlier, we need a hp (even a weak one) to the north to feed everything. Maestro...see above for further explanation. Like I said H good up there but if it moves out and an L replaces it...flow goes to poop and erodes the cold. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We need to lose the low to the north moving across in tandem with the southern energy. Even if the precip made it here on the 12z euro, the return flow with the low to the north screws up the surface in advance. Midlevels are ok but Like PSU showed earlier, we need a hp (even a weak one) to the north to feed everything. If it does go down that way we end up with a vortex sitting under the GL ridge close to the 50-50 position. All set up for the next one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 27 minutes ago, Porsche said: 1st image is 168 and second one is 192. Be curious to see what's in between. Redevelopment off the Jersey coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 ^ Whats in between is a missed phase. So nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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