poolz1 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 That is one heck of a GL block on 18z gefs. I know it been mentioned before but that D9-112 looks ripe for something to pop and the ops are starting to catch on. Better late than never but with the weeklies on board and gefs/eps in basic agreement...could be a fun ending to this "winter." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just now, poolz1 said: That is one heck of a GL block on 18z gefs. I know it been mentioned before but that D9-112 looks ripe for something to pop and the ops are starting to catch on. Better late than never but with the weeklies on board and gefs/eps in basic agreement...could be a fun ending to this "winter." Despite what some might say this look has real potential. I believe you can look to the possible combination of the changing LaNina, high amplitude MJO event forecasted , phases 8, 1 and 2 , and the continued warming event and displacement . Some doubt whether the stat has anything to do with it but I believe it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 From Ventrice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Not sure the implications of this event on the NAO down the road, but pretty interesting to speculate and be amazed by this image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 41 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Weeklies are the best overall pattern we've seen since 09-10 and it begins early week 3. I'll let psu do the detailed analysis but it's cold, blocky (ao and nao), and southern jet undercutting it all. If things broke right inside of the mean height pattern we could pull off a Brady before it's all said and done. Ok let me get the obligatory disclaimer out of the way first. It's February and we have had no snow and the models have teased us all year and yes i know how to read a calendar and we're going to run out of time sooner or later. But....holy cow was that a weenie run or what. And for those that can't see, there are good runs and then there are eyes pop out wow runs like this. Your not kidding about best since 2010. It looks like someone gave me the crayons and let me draw up the pattern. I said I was curious to see the weeklies because I wanted to see if it went this way. We saw the hints it might the last few days. This run didn't disappoint. Obviously it's still a ways out but the pattern has been slowly sliding that direction a while. The current mjo is putting a delay in the progression but it seems to resume again once that becomes favorable. The euro weeklies have been better week 3 and go haywire after. So seeing this look right away gives it some weight. We will still need some luck and obviously need the euro to be on the right track but like you said if that look is real we could pull off the miracle finish. It's a epically great look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, frd said: Not sure the implications of this event on the NAO down the road, but pretty interesting to speculate and be amazed by this image. I saw that! Could that be the door to punting the WAR out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, frd said: Despite what some might say this look has real potential. I believe you can look to the possible combination of the changing LaNina, high amplitude MJO event forecasted , phases 8, 1 and 2 , and the continued warming event and displacement . Some doubt whether the stat has anything to do with it but I believe it does. This start warm has been the first one Ive followed closely on a daily basis. I wish I had the chops to discuss intelligently, lol, but I'll leave it up to yourself and others. One thing for sure is there is no real sign of a PV recovery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxw Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 53 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Weeklies are the best overall pattern we've seen since 09-10 and it begins early week 3. I'll let psu do the detailed analysis but it's cold, blocky (ao and nao), and southern jet undercutting it all. If things broke right inside of the mean height pattern we could pull off a Brady before it's all said and done. groundhog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 minute ago, poolz1 said: This start warm has been the first one Ive followed closely on a daily basis. I wish I had the chops to discuss intelligently, lol, but I'll leave it up to yourself and others. One thing for sure is there is no real sign of a PV recovery. I am not an expert, far from it , but there are multiple factors what work together, along with multiple outcomes. I believe, as HM stated recently, a series of events , one leads to another , and you get a potential outcome. Isotherm's discussions are very indepth on the matter of the strat, PV, QBO, SSW events, etc. I believe Isotherm's recent comments were that repeated jabs at the PV may eventually lead to a more significant SSW event. Here is a little something HM put out today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, wxw said: groundhog? With a pattern like that it's more like someone in a dark new orleans alley sacrificed a groundhog, boiled the toenails, added a crow's beard, and burned them in a trashcan while reciting things you can't understand but scares the hell out of anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ok let me get the obligatory disclaimer out of the way first. It's February and we have had no snow and the models have teased us all year and yes i know how to read a calendar and we're going to run out of time sooner or later. But....holy cow was that a weenie run or what. And for those that can't see, there are good runs and then there are eyes pop out wow runs like this. Your not kidding about best since 2010. It looks like someone gave me the crayons and let me draw up the pattern. I said I was curious to see the weeklies because I wanted to see if it went this way. We saw the hints it might the last few days. This run didn't disappoint. Obviously it's still a ways out but the pattern has been slowly sliding that direction a while. The current mjo is putting a delay in the progression but it seems to resume again once that becomes favorable. The euro weeklies have been better week 3 and go haywire after. So seeing this look right away gives it some weight. We will still need some luck and obviously need the euro to be on the right track but like you said if that look is real we could pull off the miracle finish. It's a epically great look. Geps have been pretty warm at the end of its runs for a while and now it's well above normal over the conus post 275 hrs., CFS2 is way warm as we all know, and Cansips from a few days ago were warm too. Gefs, for that matter, have been looking warm near the end of its recent runs. So it's Euro against the rest of the model world. I'd say it had a chance but considering last Tuesday's run was as bad as it could get (if memory serves), it would be a miracle if it turns out to be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: With a pattern like that it's more like someone in a dark new orleans alley sacrificed a groundhog, boiled the toenails, added a crow's beard, and burned them in a trashcan while reciting things you can't understand but scares the hell out of anyway. You watched way too many Super Bowl commercials my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Geps have been pretty warm at the end of its runs for a while and now it's well above normal over the conus post 275 hrs., CFS2 is way warm as we all know, and Cansips from a few days ago were warm too. Gefs, for that matter, have been looking warm near the end of its recent runs. So it's Euro against the rest of the model world. I'd say it had a chance but considering last Tuesday's run was as bad as it could get (if memory serves), it would be a miracle if it turns out to be right. fwiw the 18z gefs looks really good up top too in the long range.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 23 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Geps have been pretty warm at the end of its runs for a while and now it's well above normal over the conus post 275 hrs., CFS2 is way warm as we all know, and Cansips from a few days ago were warm too. Gefs, for that matter, have been looking warm near the end of its recent runs. So it's Euro against the rest of the model world. I'd say it had a chance but considering last Tuesday's run was as bad as it could get (if memory serves), it would be a miracle if it turns out to be right. The euro is still warm technically day 15 too. But as soon as the jet undercuts the ridge and the ridging pulls into Canada temps crash pretty quickly. Not to arctic outbreak levels but plenty cold enough for our snow needs if the storm track is ok. The look on the geps and gefs is close enough to lend some support that the euro isn't crazy in its progression and the gefs seems likely headed the same way. My guess is if the gefs went out 3 more days you would see a trough developing in the east. It's not a crazy this and that and then this needs to happen thing it's a natural progression of the pattern being shown week 2. Now if the week 2 pattern is wrong or the mjo dies this could go wrong but I have no issues with where the gefs seems to be heading day 16. It's getting there perhaps a couple days slower but it's on the same general path as the euro. My confidence is low but not because of the gefs but simply because nothing has gone right. As for the cfs I could care less what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The euro is still warm technically day 15 too. But as soon as the jet undercuts the ridge and the ridging pulls into Canada temps crash pretty quickly. Not to arctic outbreak levels but plenty cold enough for our snow needs if the storm track is ok. The look on the geps and gefs is close enough to lend some support that the euro isn't crazy in its progression and the gefs seems likely headed the same way. My guess is if the gefs went out 3 more days you would see a trough developing in the east. It's not a crazy this and that and then this needs to happen thing it's a natural progression of the pattern being shown week 2. Now if the week 2 pattern is wrong or the mjo dies this could go wrong but I have no issues with where the gefs seems to be heading day 16. It's getting there perhaps a couple days slower but it's on the same general path as the euro. My confidence is low but not because of the gefs but simply because nothing has gone right. As for the cfs I could care less what it shows. But then there's the Cansips...lol Well, it'll be interesting to watch. A whole lot more interesting if today's Euro is right and we could at least get one snowfall under our belts I might add. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 47 minutes ago, mitchnick said: But then there's the Cansips...lol Well, it'll be interesting to watch. A whole lot more interesting if today's Euro is right and we could at least get one snowfall under our belts I might add. Your skepticism is warranted. But the gefs really is heading the same way as the EPS. Doesn't mean their right. Go on TT and scroll through the last few days and compare today's day 15 to the day 16 from 2 days ago. The warm up is getting muted and shorted each run. Now the day 16 is a pretty good look. Yes it's still a little warm because the trough has just developed but it will cool pretty quickly from here. This isn't a bad look and it's heading the right way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Day 9 snow on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Day 9 snow on gfs Just as I was about to try to catch up on sleep, the gfs shows the biggest fantasy blizzard since recent memory and there has been tough competition for such a statement! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Just as I was about to try to catch up on sleep, the gfs shows the biggest fantasy blizzard since recent memory and there has been tough competition for such a statement! Sweey mercy! If this stays on the radar a few more days...I'm gonna nickname this the almanac storm! Both Farmer's (to the exact date) and Old Farmer's have a storm in this exact date range, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 I'm on mobile but this is sweet! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=eus&pkg=asnow24&runtime=2017020700&fh=240 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=eus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017020700&fh=228&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 20 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Just as I was about to try to catch up on sleep, the gfs shows the biggest fantasy blizzard since recent memory and there has been tough competition for such a statement! It looked like 4-6" across va to me. Not really a blizzard but it's a decent setup. And the long range looks loaded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It looked like 4-6" across va to me. Not really a blizzard but it's a decent setup. And the long range looks loaded NCEP qpf calculations continue to look so whacky. Just look at the moisture field just before it hits our region! The isobars show some promise for wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Day 9 appears to have some legs looking at the euro ens mean. Perhaps some with paid access can see how much spread there is in the members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 14 minutes ago, kurtstack said: Day 9 appears to have some legs looking at the euro ens mean. Perhaps some with paid access can see how much spread there is in the members. Period of blocking around this time as well, - NAO and a - AO as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Note: I'm not sure if these are time-sensitive or not. I'd take this look. Ridge and trough axes are maybe a little east, but that block and 50/50... GEFS keeps the theme rolling: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 15 minutes ago, frd said: Period of blocking around this time as well, - NAO and a - AO as well. That trough off the west coast is a persistent pain in the arse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 40 minutes ago, kurtstack said: Day 9 appears to have some legs looking at the euro ens mean. Perhaps some with paid access can see how much spread there is in the members. Lows are scattershot everywhere, lakes to the southeast coast, through that time period. Not going to count but there is quite a significant camp that do place a low to our south and/or southwest (Maybe 50%). Strong signal for a storm in the east no doubt. Details will have to be worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 21 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Lows are scattershot everywhere, lakes to the southeast coast, through that time period. Not going to count but there is quite a significant camp that do place a low to our south and/or southwest (Maybe 50%). Strong signal for a storm in the east no doubt. Details will have to be worked out. euro day 10 show a low right in eastern gulf by florida, where it goes i dont know 0 degree line in NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 25 minutes ago, mitchnick said: That trough off the west coast is a persistent pain in the arse. That trough off the west coast is actually there in almost all our big snows... the key is you need the blocking on the Atlantic side and some PNA help. But if you have those things that trough there isn't that much of a problem. It becomes a BIG problem if the atlantic isn't cooperating and we need a pacific driven cold pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, mdsnowlover said: euro day 10 show a low right in eastern gulf by florida, where it goes i dont know 0 degree line in NY On the op yes. But he was asking about what the individual ensemble members were showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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