NorthArlington101 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 GFS has that follow up accumulating snow shower/squall in a similar spot then the NAM did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, MD Snow said: I'll take this look over pouring cold rain any day. Map is deceptive..the run is rain for everyone except maybe well N and W of the cities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 hour ago, eurojosh said: Pity it doesn't go out to ten days... has anyone seen any p-type maps for hr 240? It does have that option for snowfall at least! Near D.C. it's a carbon copy for 6 days, but not sure which hour it would cut off on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 18z GFS is basically a 50 mile NW jog with precip totals from the euro. It was a SE shift in general from 12z. Especially in the areas NE of here like NYC. 0z should look just like the euro and then we'll have consensus. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: 18z GFS is basically a 50 mile NW jog with precip totals from the euro. It was a SE shift in general from 12z. Especially in the areas NE of here like NYC. 0z should look just like the euro and then we'll have consensus. lol. Sure! Or this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 I haven't changed my opinion since yesterday even after seeing the Euro. These coldfronts coming down from PA always take way longer than any model says when there's not a strong pressure gradient. The only way we do well from an anafront is if models are showing temps dropping into the mid 20s before the precip ends. Here they don't even get down to 32 in most places. Even the NE MD crush zone might get screwed on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: GFS has that follow up accumulating snow shower/squall in a similar spot then the NAM did. That feature was there at 12z. Looks a little more robust this run. Would probably give me more snow than the actual storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, HighStakes said: This system could work out for us. Some similarities to the late February in 2011. We did well here with about 6 inches. It was a race to get the cold air in but we did win out. Areas not to far to the south struggled. That storm did have a stronger cold push behind opposed to this upcoming one which is more marginal. We are at peak climb so that could help the borderline areas do better. Yeah you're right about areas south of you. 2/11 was a horrific short term bust for us-- WSWarning for 3-6" of snow after the changeover based on increasingly optimistic short term trends on the models. The 12Z runs at the start of the event blew the southern edge. We had less than an inch. People have mentioned the Euro's performance in the 2015 Super Bowl storm but I think a worse miss was the 72-hr lead time miss on the March storm last season. 3 or 4 runs in a row leading up to 72-hours out showed a bombing low to our southeast with a major snowfall at our latitude. That didn't happen obviously but it took the Euro another couple of cycles to completely lose the band of moderate precip on Sunday. And of course the Euro's most notorious recent bust was holding onto the slow and deep solution for NYC's possible all time greatest in 1/15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 18z GFS is basically a 50 mile NW jog with precip totals from the euro. It was a SE shift in general from 12z. Especially in the areas NE of here like NYC. 0z should look just like the euro and then we'll have consensus. lol. Euro actually shifted some from 0z to 12z. Biggest difference to the NE. It was a tad colder, low track further south, and just a touch weaker but that was just noise probably. So its all looking good. Until the Euro shifts 50 miles at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 hour ago, packfan98 said: DTVaWeatherman @DTVaWeatherman 1m1 minute ago More BIG discrepancy in snowfall amounts between various euro models that you can look at. WXBELL v EUROWX - huge implications for DCA BAL Is there any chance that DT has the wrong map from EUROWX? That's a huge difference! Sleet?? I'll start with the disclaimer that of course these model snow output maps should only be used as a general reference. Should also mention that the bigger issue right now is the track and the agreement amongst models is certainly still a work in progress. My worry about the Mid-Atlantic region is whether the cold is able to press down enough before this followup wave behind the cutter runs along the boundary. But at any rate.. a couple thoughts on these snow outputs. While the Wxbell map may be a bit liberal with snow amounts on the southern end, I'd be careful with the Kuchera method (Eurowx map) in this kind of marginal setup. Kuchera applies the warmest temp in the lowest 500mb into an equation, which is: T = maximum temp in lowest 500 mb (K) if T > 271.16 ratio = 12 + 2*(271.16 - T) else ratio = 12 + (271.16 - T) That equation uses Kelvin as well, so to refresh.. 0ºC = 273.15K With this setup, that warmest temp is going to be at or near the surface. So with model output of 1-2ºC (274-275K) in that near surface layer, it's gonna come up with a ratio of 4 or 6:1. Dynamically, with decent lift at the 700mb level the ratios probably would be pretty decent (>10:1). Of course surface temps and ground temps will affect that to a point. It may start with that kind of calculated crappy ratio but as temps fall and snow starts piling up, you may start to realize a much better ratio...especially if the precip is heavy. I also believe this method doesn't get triggered unless the model ptype output is straight snow. Since this is a quick event which practically happens in between 6hr frames, I can see how that can get pretty ambiguous for DC and just south since temps fall from the mid 30s to 32-35ºF. I don't have Euro p-type maps, so I'm not sure what they look like. I guess my point is that the Kuchera method is only as good as the accuracy of the model output, and in these highly marginal setups where a degree or so can make all the difference between rain, slush, or an all out snow bomb... I would take it with about as much of a grain of salt as the general WxBell 10:1 map. Also if anyone else has anything to add or correct me on Kuchera method, feel free. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Coach Belichek having a half-time talk with the GFS right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 13 minutes ago, gymengineer said: Yeah you're right about areas south of you. 2/11 was a horrific short term bust for us-- WSWarning for 3-6" of snow after the changeover based on increasingly optimistic short term trends on the models. The 12Z runs at the start of the event blew the southern edge. We had less than an inch. People have mentioned the Euro's performance in the 2015 Super Bowl storm but I think a worse miss was the 72-hr lead time miss on the March storm last season. 3 or 4 runs in a row leading up to 72-hours out showed a bombing low to our southeast with a major snowfall at our latitude. That didn't happen obviously but it took the Euro another couple of cycles to completely lose the band of moderate precip on Sunday. And of course the Euro's most notorious recent bust was holding onto the slow and deep solution for NYC's possible all time greatest in 1/15. Good observations. Another storm that comes to mind was the early february storm in 2014. This was the one right before the ice storm. Once again a case of trying to get the cold in. I think we were well into the 50's the day before with rain. We got lucky here and enough cold made it in. Ended up with 6-7 inches of extremely wet snow. Areas just to the south only 2-3 around Reisterstown. Virtually nothing once you got to the beltway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 So who has the cahoonas to start a thread? Yes, you will be held accountable. But it is time. Step forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: So who has the cahoonas to start a thread? Yes, you will be held accountable. But it is time. Step forward. It's time because this isn't long range anymore and we actually do have some stuff including a day 10 window and a possible better pattern later to talk about in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: I'm terrified. Is it time? Yes. Don't be scared lad. It wont be me. I am too thin skinned. I need everyone to like me. If they don't, then they better watch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 I'll start the thread if someone will give me a good thread title. I feel that a good title is very important to the success of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's time because this isn't long range anymore and we actually do have some stuff including a day 10 window and a possible better pattern later to talk about in here. 100% agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I'll start the thread if someone will give me a good thread title. I feel that a good title is very important to the success of the storm. Yeah we need a good one. This sucker could be the savior! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I'm too emotionally fragile to start a thread but, if we fail I'll melt, so it makes sense to jump on my terms. Its best you stay away from this. You have a dark heart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I'll start the thread if someone will give me a good thread title. I feel that a good title is very important to the success of the storm. Lol we both started at same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, yoda said: Lol we both started at same time yikes. fate of the storm depends on which thread stays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Yoda done the deed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 gorgeousSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, kurtstack said: gorgeous Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk What is that from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 18z gfs 384 hour panel lol. The stars start to align a few panels before that. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 8 minutes ago, kurtstack said: 18z gfs 384 hour panel lol. The stars start to align a few panels before that. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Somewhat comical we still get shafted even with that look in fantasy land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Weeklies are the best overall pattern we've seen since 09-10 and it begins early week 3. I'll let psu do the detailed analysis but it's cold, blocky (ao and nao), and southern jet undercutting it all. If things broke right inside of the mean height pattern we could pull off a Brady before it's all said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 hour ago, MAG5035 said: I'll start with the disclaimer that of course these model snow output maps should only be used as a general reference. Should also mention that the bigger issue right now is the track and the agreement amongst models is certainly still a work in progress. My worry about the Mid-Atlantic region is whether the cold is able to press down enough before this followup wave behind the cutter runs along the boundary. But at any rate.. a couple thoughts on these snow outputs. While the Wxbell map may be a bit liberal with snow amounts on the southern end, I'd be careful with the Kuchera method (Eurowx map) in this kind of marginal setup. Kuchera applies the warmest temp in the lowest 500mb into an equation, which is: T = maximum temp in lowest 500 mb (K) if T > 271.16 ratio = 12 + 2*(271.16 - T) else ratio = 12 + (271.16 - T) That equation uses Kelvin as well, so to refresh.. 0ºC = 273.15K With this setup, that warmest temp is going to be at or near the surface. So with model output of 1-2ºC (274-275K) in that near surface layer, it's gonna come up with a ratio of 4 or 6:1. Dynamically, with decent lift at the 700mb level the ratios probably would be pretty decent (>10:1). Of course surface temps and ground temps will affect that to a point. It may start with that kind of calculated crappy ratio but as temps fall and snow starts piling up, you may start to realize a much better ratio...especially if the precip is heavy. I also believe this method doesn't get triggered unless the model ptype output is straight snow. Since this is a quick event which practically happens in between 6hr frames, I can see how that can get pretty ambiguous for DC and just south since temps fall from the mid 30s to 32-35ºF. I don't have Euro p-type maps, so I'm not sure what they look like. I guess my point is that the Kuchera method is only as good as the accuracy of the model output, and in these highly marginal setups where a degree or so can make all the difference between rain, slush, or an all out snow bomb... I would take it with about as much of a grain of salt as the general WxBell 10:1 map. Also if anyone else has anything to add or correct me on Kuchera method, feel free. Awesome explanation and much appreciated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Awesome explanation and much appreciated! Indeed. Thanks, MAG5035. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Indeed. Thanks, MAG5035. He is the man up in the PA subforum. Carried it much of the time when I lived up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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