BristowWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, yoda said: Wow... that sounds great and makes me believe that the EPS and Euro OP are good for us when comparing them together But do you think the op GFS, assuming it holds firm, could be that far off this close to game time. Maybe just hard to imagine. I am conditioned to assume the worst snow scenario even if the best one is the best model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, BristowWx said: But do you think the op GFS, assuming it holds firm, could be that far off this close to game time. Maybe just hard to imagine. I am conditioned to assume the worst snow scenario even if the best one is the best model It's just a 50-75 mile shift from being very similar to what the Euro has. I don't see it as that far off...yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: Wow... that sounds great and makes me believe that the EPS and Euro OP are good for us when comparing them together We all know the NAM likes to amp things up too much beyond 36-48 hours. What the NAM is doing right now is similar to when we get Nam'd when all other guidance shows a southern solution. It gives us hope for 45 minutes before the GFS squashes the idea. Not saying that I'm totally sold on the nice track the euro/eps is showing. It's just that the nam has a pretty long history of being too far NW beyond 48 hours. It does it time and time again. The gfs will probably still be NW of the euro if I had to guess but if it ticks or even jumps SE then we are starting to converge. Right now we have the euro/ukie holding hands. Hardly a bad place to be @ 72 hours. It's probably exactly where we want to be. By this time tomorrow all globals should be generally similar with whatever the consensus track is. Because the stripe is narrow and the temps are sketchy, finer details leading all the way to game time can easily make or break our fortunes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We all know the NAM likes to amp things up too much beyond 36-48 hours. What the NAM is doing right now is similar to when we get Nam'd when all other guidance shows a southern solution. It gives us hope for 45 minutes before the GFS squashes the idea. Not saying that I'm totally sold on the nice track the euro/eps is showing. It's just that the nam has a pretty long history of being too far NW beyond 48 hours. It does it time and time again. The gfs will probably still be NW of the euro if I had to guess but if it ticks or even jumps SE then we are starting to converge. Right now we have the euro/ukie holding hands. Hardly a bad place to be @ 72 hours. It's probably exactly where we want to be. By this time tomorrow all globals should be generally similar with whatever the consensus track is. Because the stripe is narrow and the temps are sketchy, finer details leading all the way to game time can easily make or break our fortunes. Sage advice for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 24 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: One of these is favored climatologically. Sure is. That's why I'm just going to assume the worst, casually follow and hope we see things trend in our favor at the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 I can't see much chance of this storm shifting south. And as a trailing wave currently losing energy battling the western cordillera, it won't reach the trough with much potential to shift north. Main uncertainty is intensity (as illustrated by GEM not maintaining it). I am optimistic about intensity. Therefore early call is 4-7" most regions north of a Richmond to Ocean City line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: I can't see much chance of this storm shifting south. And as a trailing wave currently losing energy battling the western cordillera, it won't reach the trough with much potential to shift north. Main uncertainty is intensity (as illustrated by GEM not maintaining it). I am optimistic about intensity. Therefore early call is 4-7" most regions north of a Richmond to Ocean City line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: I can't see much chance of this storm shifting south. And as a trailing wave currently losing energy battling the western cordillera, it won't reach the trough with much potential to shift north. Main uncertainty is intensity (as illustrated by GEM not maintaining it). I am optimistic about intensity. Therefore early call is 4-7" most regions north of a Richmond to Ocean City line. We can hope but I have to wonder how much precip will be wasted on rain. 4-7 assumes all snow north of that line. Without the cold in place it seems like a tall order south of N. MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Another good run of the EPS long range imo. Still seems headed towards a better place late feb. held the same look from 0z so weeklies tonight will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 hour ago, AmericanWxFreak said: What is HM talking about....? "Our new Rapid Update of the ECMWF model shows the snow is backing way off for the Mid-Atlantic Thursday." lol! That's why I thought there might be a parallel run analysis thrown in somewhere. Glad to see we're not the crazy ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Rgem at 48 looks further south and colder then the nam ..fwiw. uhh...then one of us needs glasses. my bad. I misread. but it is further north and warmer than its 12z run. apologies. Carry on. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 15 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: I can't see much chance of this storm shifting south. And as a trailing wave currently losing energy battling the western cordillera, it won't reach the trough with much potential to shift north. Main uncertainty is intensity (as illustrated by GEM not maintaining it). I am optimistic about intensity. Therefore early call is 4-7" most regions north of a Richmond to Ocean City line. Wow, seriously? Sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 13 minutes ago, BristowWx said: We can hope but I have to wonder how much precip will be wasted on rain. 4-7 assumes all snow north of that line. Without the cold in place it seems like a tall order south of N. MD That might be possible if absolutely everything broke right. Its going to be in the 60s on Wed. Waiting for marginal cold..we have seen this before lol. If I had to make a general call right now I would go an inch or less DC-BWI and SE, and 1-3 NW, with 4" Mount Manchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: We can hope but I have to wonder how much precip will be wasted on rain. 4-7 assumes all snow north of that line. Without the cold in place it seems like a tall order south of N. MD Yeah 4-7 around D.C. seems unlikely but hey; we haven't gotten lucky this year yet so maybe we're due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: uhh...then one of us needs glasses. Nut At 48 hours the nam had the low in western TN and the rgem is in south central AR. It's south and slower. Both good. But I'm not worrying about what mesos have to say at least until tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Rgem at 48 looks further south and colder then the nam ..fwiw. This system could work out for us. Some similarities to the late February in 2011. We did well here with about 6 inches. It was a race to get the cold air in but we did win out. Areas not to far to the south struggled. That storm did have a stronger cold push behind opposed to this upcoming one which is more marginal. We are at peak climo so that could help the borderline areas do better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Rgem at 48 looks further south and colder then the nam ..fwiw. 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: uhh...then one of us needs glasses. my bad. I misread. but it is further north and warmer than its 12z run. apologies. Carry on. Nut So... who is right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Man, gfs going all weak sauce with the vort/storm this run. I'm tossing cuz I don't like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 18z GFS on TT at 48 has SLP in C Arkansas... at least that is the right SLP to be watching... right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 rgem at 12z had 540 into central pa and at 18z it has 540 hanging back into NW PA LP basically same MB but at 18z was about 75ish miles N of 12z position. RGEM PBP only. I didnt compare to NAM Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Nut, I compared 12k nam with Rgem and Rgem is south with low and surface temps at 48 in our region noticeably colder. It will change. .just a verbatim you are correct. i was looking soley at RGEM. carry on.... Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 GFS sucks...next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Eh, I guess I'll eat some of my words. Since it's not as amped in front it's a little colder in the mid levels. Track is more similar to the euro so that is good too. It just started off so weak and sheared it looked like crap leading in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: GFS sucks...next I'm going to leave it as a shift towards the euro. Just a weaker and more boring version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Eh, I guess I'll eat some of my words. Since it's not as amped in front it's a little colder in the mid levels. Track is more similar to the euro so that is good too. It just started off so weak and sheared it looked like crap leading in. Looks a bit slower and colder, further south. But weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: I'm going to leave it as a shift towards the euro. Just a weaker and more boring version. Agree. Its happy hour so I will call it a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Looks a bit slower and colder, further south. But weaker. I know Mt Parkvillechestminster likes the run a lot. They may try and down play it but heh, it's a northern tier pasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Another good run of the EPS long range imo. Still seems headed towards a better place late feb. held the same look from 0z so weeklies tonight will be interesting. Let's hope! (That's why I said...not time to throw in the flag unless we've got nothin' before the end of PD week!) The Almanacs certainly like that period, fwiw...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 I'll take this look over pouring cold rain any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: I know Mt Parkvillechestminster likes the run a lot. They may try and down play it but heh, it's a northern tier pasting. That fits my early call lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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