BTRWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I'm still not ready to start the detailed analysis and eventual heartbreak on this yet. As many have accurately pointed out this threat has been there hidden within the noise of the guidance for a long time. But it's not a long lead tracking type event. Progressive wave along a pressing boundary can work and has worked but it's the kind of thing that often undergoes significant changes in guidance leading up. It's a very good sign things are trending better now but it could still get pulled out from under us. I'm not saying it's not a legit threat just proceed with caution. Two recent example of this type setup with a low to our north then a follow up wave would be march 5 2015 and early feb 2014. 2015 worked out and the other was a late fail after it trended better initially so... Fwiw, gefs 850s have been trending opposite to what we'd want to see. The time frame of such a volatile pattern has me a little interested. Just think, how many times has this threat window trended in opposite extremes already?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: No, it's there. Just not sure if it's going to work. 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: It's the proverbial wet paste job. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 It's a solid hit. Damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, stormtracker said: I feel the same. H5 looked slower, then faster, stronger, then weaker, surface looked better, then the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, stormtracker said: It's a solid hit. Damn SLP closes off in SW va and give a nice tug on the mid levels towards a colder solution. It's kinda the best case scenario. Might go downhill from here. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: I feel the same. H5 looked slower, then faster, stronger, then weaker, surface looked better, then the same. I wish I could give out a EasternPaWx tag. I'm looking at you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: It's the proverbial wet paste job. lol. Looking at TT, the 850 temps are still too warm (as is the surface), at 84h? With the low along the NC/VA border. But then again, I haven't seen the next panels after, not sure how it evolves beyond that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: SLP closes off in SW va and give a nice tug on the mid levels towards a colder solution. It's kinda the best case scenario. Might go downhill from here. lol It most assuredly will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Thermals look a bit blah but I suppose we dont need to focus on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Surface is warm. Freezing DP line in PA. Bob is right about wet paste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: SLP closes off in SW va and give a nice tug on the mid levels towards a colder solution. It's kinda the best case scenario. Might go downhill from here. lol iwm shows only N. MD getting anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, MN Transplant said: Surface is warm. Freezing DP line in PA. Bob is right about wet paste. Hr 90 is rain according to ptype maps but we will focus on that later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, MN Transplant said: Surface is warm. Freezing DP line in PA. Bob is right about wet paste. What's to like from that? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, Always in Zugzwang said: Looking at TT, the 850 temps are still too warm (as is the surface), at 84h? With the low along the NC/VA border. But then again, I haven't seen the next panels after, not sure how it evolves beyond that. Nice boost from dynamics. Closed circ @ 850 and surface to our SW. That's exactly what we want to see. It would sure be heavy snow for a time verbatim even with surface in the mid 30's. I'll go with the GFS too warm at the surface bias and then hug whatever model dumps the most precip in a 6 hour period. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, PennQuakerGirl said: Please tell me they have like...at MOST two or three people working there. LOL!! Well, I suppose those midnight shifts can get pretty lonely over there! One of the funniest discussion I saw was a few years ago from the Hurricane Center...they were discussing tropical storm Kirk, which was decaying at the time, they had a line in there of "Kirk will not live long and prosper"!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Checked thermals on 12z gfs 43 degrees at surface here at onset dropping to 37 degrees as precip exits. This one is for the NW folks - enjoy psu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Nice boost from dynamics. Closed circ @ 850 and surface to our SW. That's exactly what we want to see. It would sure be heavy snow for a time verbatim even with surface in the mid 30's. I'll go with the GFS too warm at the surface bias and then hug whatever model dumps the most precip in a 6 hour period. lol I'm with you. I mean we can nitpick at hour 90, but I'll forgo that and be glad we have something on the board to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I wish I could give out a EasternPaWx tag. I'm looking at you. Not sure, but I think I've been insulted. So, when do you think LWX puts out warnings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Not sure, but I think I've been insulted. So, when do you think LWX puts out warnings? Never, this will get worse from here on out. People are already talking about thermals. By tomorrow, it'll be a nice, heavy rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, stormtracker said: I'm with you. I mean we can nitpick at hour 90, but I'll forgo that and be glad we have something on the board to track. Yea, we already know that surface temps are going to be the flag. Just toggle the 6z and 12z runs. It was a really nice shift in just about everything. It's not going to be cold smoke. Not hard to accept that. I just want white asteroids blasting down for 4 hours to give me 1" in a single event. There's my bar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Yea, we already know that surface temps are going to be the flag. Just toggle the 6z and 12z runs. It was a really nice shift in just about everything. It's not going to be cold smoke. Not hard to accept that. I just want white asteroids blasting down for 4 hours to give me 1" in a single event. There's my bar. I'd be shocked if this goofs run doesn't spit anything else out in the lr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Snowfall maps are the biggest posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Nice boost from dynamics. Closed circ @ 850 and surface to our SW. That's exactly what we want to see. It would sure be heavy snow for a time verbatim even with surface in the mid 30's. I'll go with the GFS too warm at the surface bias and then hug whatever model dumps the most precip in a 6 hour period. lol Yeah, didn't see those details right when I sent my post. But that would perhaps do it for sure (good dynamics, I mean)! As others said, no point in parsing fine details right now. It's just nice to have a possibility there. I'm with you...assume warm bias on the GFS thermals, and take the model with the most precip!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 I'm driving home from NY on Thursday...I may take the roundabout way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 So the GFS drops .5-.75 qpf through the entire region with good dynamics overhead. That's going to be all rain with 850's below zero the whole time and the surface dropping through the mid 30's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: So the GFS drops .5-.75 qpf through the entire region with good dynamics overhead. That's going to be all rain with 850's below zero the whole time and the surface dropping through the mid 30's? Heavy precipitation and the only level above freezing is within 500 feet of the surface at night? None of it will be rain and those above freezing temps won't last long either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Hr 90 is rain according to ptype maps but we will focus on that later 500 looks better yet the surface is showing rain at least for me. I think I liked 6z better but I could be missing the bigger picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Hey it is the only game in town so we can certainly hope for the best in terms of temps - and as was pointed out the upper levels look good so the quicker we can scour out the surface the better - overnight timing could help with that. We have threaded that needle before with commutegeddon lol. Got about 8" in arlington with whiteout consitions and temps around 34 degrees. Rates can overcome on rare occassions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: So the GFS drops .5-.75 qpf through the entire region with good dynamics overhead. That's going to be all rain with 850's below zero the whole time and the surface dropping through the mid 30's? Mostly rain here I'd go with. You're in a completely different climo where you can't lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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