MD Snow Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 NAM is further south with LP placement and precip shield through 42hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, mappy said: got any specifics up my way? i look to be cold enough the whole time, maybe a tad above 32 at onset. Not too much of a difference with regard to the temperatures like we see for NW of DC. The lat/lon I was using was for Damascus and I used Parkton's for you. Only difference I see is the intensity of the precip for hour 72 which is a bit more robust up your way given the depth of the moisture layer. Decent banding from Motco up to your neck of the woods so it makes sense. I hope its right lol 2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: If you have Accuweather Pro you can also look at cross sections too with the Euro and most of the other models. I did a cross section on a line from the PA/MD border down into a bit of northern VA along I-95 putting DC roughly in the middle. Hour 66 (prior to most precip arriving in the region) obviously a bit too warm under 900mb for about 2/3s of that cross section, but within + or - 1 degree of 0 between 800-900mb on about all of the cross section. Hour 72 def looked good all around. Certainly would be a quick hitter.. pretty much all between 66 and 72hours. Temps below 925mb are going to be the initial issue. Heavy precip should get things changed over in relatively short order if Euro has it's way with the 0.5-0.75" frame centered over DC and surrounding areas at hour 72. Good catch!! I was just trying to review the soundings and make comments, but that's a pretty good tool to use too. I'm at work and got a bunch of other stuff going on, so I'm just looking for quick and dirty analysis. Here's to hoping something finally goes right down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 18z NAM is a negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Not too much of a difference with regard to the temperatures like we see for NW of DC. The lat/lon I was using was for Damascus and I used Parkton's for you. Only difference I see is the intensity of the precip for hour 72 which is a bit more robust up your way given the depth of the moisture layer. Decent banding from Motco up to your neck of the woods so it makes sense. I hope its right lol thank you, as always! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, yoda said: 18z NAM is a negative come on yoda, gotta be a bit more descriptive. a negative for who? you, me, all of us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, mappy said: come on yoda, gotta be a bit more descriptive. a negative for who? you, me, all of us? Sorry, was about to edit it... negative for all... 1004 SLP in E KY at 54... prob cold rain with SLP moving NE and will likely move over DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, yoda said: Sorry, was about to edit it... negative for all negative how? nothing but cold rain? no precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, mappy said: negative how? nothing but cold rain? no precip? SLP goes right throug Northern VA and its quite a bit faster that 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, mappy said: negative how? nothing but cold rain? no precip? I only have it out to 48 hours..he must be getting it from a pay site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, stormtracker said: I only have it out to 48 hours..he must be getting it from a pay site weatherbell is only out to 60, so far precip moves in faster, so not as cold as 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, mappy said: negative how? nothing but cold rain? no precip? At 60h the low is a littlw SW of DC, 2m freezing line SW to NE crossing through around State College maybe. 850s no good except extreme NW MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, LP08 said: SLP goes right throug Northern VA and its quite a bit faster that 12z thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, DCTeacherman said: At 60h the low is basically overhead of DC, 2m freezing line SW to NE crossing through around State College maybe. 850s no good except extreme N MD. thank you! -- see yoda, this is how you pbp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, stormtracker said: I only have it out to 48 hours..he must be getting it from a pay site Instant Weather Maps to 60. It's pretty different from 12z run. Way amped and much earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Seems like there's 2 scenarios emerging: 1 - Cold air rushes in and the low tracks near the mouth of the Chesapeake. Everyone gets a 4" - 6" event. 2 - Cold air lags, the front stalls along I-70 (ish) and we're a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 I still see a few inches per the NAM, so not negative IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Shift everything 50-60 miles south on the NAM, and you've got something for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: Shift everything 50-60 miles south on the NAM, and you've got something for most of us. That's 0z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 NAM sucks..next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 I mean do we really want to be in the jackpot at 60hrs on the NAM? I guess it doesn't mean anything if it shifts further north tonight but still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, MD Snow said: I mean do we really want to be in the jackpot at 60hrs on the NAM? I guess it doesn't mean anything if it shifts further north tonight but still... I take the heavier precip as a step in the right direction... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, MD Snow said: I mean do we really want to be in the jackpot at 60hrs on the NAM? I guess it doesn't mean anything if it shifts further north tonight but still... I wanna be the jackpot on every run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Jma...might be old news ...is way south...like euro.....http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=jma®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017020612&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=47Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 The heavy day after squall/snowshower on the NAM looks really fun though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just for the record. The eps low location plot doesn't have a single lp go NW of fredricksburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Did anyone notice on that Windytv Euro model that to the right of the "New Snow" you can click on the Forecast for the location and then surface temps and other info shows up. It comes up first in Celsius, but you can change it to F by clicking on the "temp" on the bottom left. That's a great site for free. You can easily drag the location to your back yard too. https://www.windytv.com/overlays?950h,snowAccu,next10d,39.244,-76.593,11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Did anyone notice on that Windytv Euro model that to the right of the "New Snow" you can click on the Forecast for the location and then surface temps and other info shows up. It comes up first in Celsius, but you can change it to F by clicking on the "temp" on the bottom left. That's a great site for free. You can easily drag the location to your back yard too. https://www.windytv.com/overlays?950h,snowAccu,next10d,39.244,-76.593,11 Wow, that site is really pretty fantastic. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 6, 2017 Author Share Posted February 6, 2017 18 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Seems like there's 2 scenarios emerging: 1 - Cold air rushes in and the low tracks near the mouth of the Chesapeake. Everyone gets a 4" - 6" event. 2 - Cold air lags, the front stalls along I-70 (ish) and we're a cold rain. One of these is favored climatologically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Just for the record. The eps low location plot doesn't have a single lp go NW of fredricksburg. Wow... that sounds great and makes me believe that the EPS and Euro OP are good for us when comparing them together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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