Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Euro at 72 is pretty tough to beat a lot of times. But the precip max is still pretty narrow and temps raise a flag. I will definitely favor it over the GFS because the trend in heights between 48-66 is where you could easily see it wasn't going to be a warm rainer. Euro is probably handling the departing system the best. Other than everything, I'm not sure what can really go wrong here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, mappy said: Hour 72 is where it's at if you are DC. Precip is mostly done at hour 72. I think for MBY, 7z - 11z is the window. Which means I won't get much sleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: 850s check out the whole way... I think it would all be snow, just not all sticking. That may be what you meant anyways. Yes, hour 72 is all snow. However, what I showed was a 6 hour QPF total. So, unless you have data showing you the drop in temps from 42 (at hr 66) to 32 (at hr 72), you have no idea when that changeover would occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, Deck Pic said: Precip is mostly done at hour 72. I think for MBY, 7z - 11z is the window. Which means I won't get much sleep lol yes -- its the best 6 hr panel. some snow has to fall prior to that for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, mappy said: Yes, hour 72 is all snow. However, what I showed was a 6 hour QPF total. So, unless you have data showing you the drop in temps from 42 (at hr 66) to 32 (at hr 72), you have no idea when that changeover would occur. Wow, that's just a 6-hour panel? I figured that must have been event total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Fringed out here! But it should rain a little less and be more snow and that is good! A little wiggle room for N and W jog too! You know it is MBY that I care about! We all need snow though so let's hope for some improvement and Happy Hour GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, mappy said: Yes, hour 72 is all snow. However, what I showed was a 6 hour QPF total. So, unless you have data showing you the drop in temps from 42 (at hr 66) to 32 (at hr 72), you have no idea when that changeover would occur. All I was noting is every layer but the surface that I can find from h66-h72 is below 0, other then the surface and the 925T layer, which is right above 0 at 66. There could be a warm layer somewhere else important, but I can't figure out why all of it wouldn't be snow, albeit white rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, DCTeacherman said: Wow, that's just a 6-hour panel? I figured that must have been event total. ha, it might as well be. not much falls before/after that 6hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro at 72 is pretty tough to beat a lot of times. But the precip max is still pretty narrow and temps raise a flag. I will definitely favor it over the GFS because the trend in heights between 48-66 is where you could easily see it wasn't going to be a warm rainer. Euro is probably handling the departing system the best. Other than everything, I'm not sure what can really go wrong here. Pretty hard to beat the UK/Euro and don't forget about the ICON model. Plastering for DC to your crib. GFS is so much faster then these models. It did fairly well for the Jan event that busted on us in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: Fringed out here! But it should rain a little less and be more snow and that is good! A little wiggle room for N and W jog too! You know it is MBY that I care about! We all need snow though so let's hope for some improvement and Happy Hour GFS! .5" of precip is still a pretty good fringe job! Great run all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: All I was noting is every layer but the surface that I can find from h66-h72 is below 0, other then the surface and the 925T layer, which is right above 0 at 66. There could be a warm layer somewhere else important, but I can't figure out why all of it wouldn't be snow, albeit white rain. And I'm asking -- are you able to get soundings for the hours between 66 and 72? Because hr 66 = rain, hr 72 = snow I have no idea what happens between those 6 hours other than .6 precip falls in the DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, mappy said: And I'm asking -- are you able to get soundings for the hours between 66 and 72? Because hr 66 = rain, hr 72 = snow I have no idea what happens between those 6 hours other than .6 precip falls in the DC area. Based on previous experience with these I'll make no assumptions about precip type. The great rates sometimes have a hard time materializing and the cold sometimes has a tough time against springtime like temps. If this happens as modeled I think DC has a good chance for 1-3 but I have a hard time seeing the 4-5 the Euro is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 9 minutes ago, packbacker said: Pretty hard to beat the UK/Euro and don't forget about the ICON model. Plastering for DC to your crib. GFS is so much faster then these models. It did fairly well for the Jan event that busted on us in January. With the slp right off ORF at 72 hrs. and decent precip extending down to CHO, I would "think" that more precip would fall after 72 hrs. too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 27 minutes ago, mappy said: That looks exactly like the 0z run. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, BTRWx said: That looks exactly like the 0z run. Wow Based on a map on the prior page, it looks like an additional inch falls after 7AM, which is when that map ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 26 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: 12z "Panasonic" Well played! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Based on previous experience with these I'll make no assumptions about precip type. The great rates sometimes have a hard time materializing and the cold sometimes has a tough time against springtime like temps. If this happens as modeled I think DC has a good chance for 1-3 but I have a hard time seeing the 4-5 the Euro is showing. I agree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, BTRWx said: That looks exactly like the 0z run. Wow It is the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, BTRWx said: Well played! Euro and Ukie are a great combo when they agree! It should be an Interesting weather week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: It is the 0z run. nope. 00z has a nice swath of 6" showing up in MoCo/Howard county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, mappy said: nope. 00z has a nice swatch of 6" showing up in MoCo/Howard county We call that the MoCo/HoCo death band. Man what I wouldn't give... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 19 minutes ago, mappy said: And I'm asking -- are you able to get soundings for the hours between 66 and 72? Because hr 66 = rain, hr 72 = snow I have no idea what happens between those 6 hours other than .6 precip falls in the DC area. DC is 34 degrees at 69 hours (9z) and about 0.30" falls after that, so could be a nice thump if rates are heavy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Bernie hates us lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: DC is 34 degrees at 69 hours (9z) and about 0.30" falls after that, so could be a nice thump if rates are heavy... Nice! Hoping you guys do well (not worried up here) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 On an unrelated note... Miller B for the end of the Euro run - vs GFS' Miller A... Close call, though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Some chatter worth a post I think - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 That map should not have posted lol. weird. Mod can delete it. eta- done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: DC is 34 degrees at 69 hours (9z) and about 0.30" falls after that, so could be a nice thump if rates are heavy... At 69 is the sounding mostly isothermal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: That map should not have posted lol. weird. Mod can delete it. eta- done i saw your hidden post -- i always use 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 DTVaWeatherman @DTVaWeatherman 1m1 minute ago More BIG discrepancy in snowfall amounts between various euro models that you can look at. WXBELL v EUROWX - huge implications for DCA BAL Is there any chance that DT has the wrong map from EUROWX? That's a huge difference! Sleet?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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