BTRWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, showmethesnow said: And well you should. The best use at range is pretty much to see trends from run to run and nothing more. Still, that's 70% of its runs goning to waste. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: I'm going with a blend of the 0z euro and 6z ICON Someone please explain what the icon model is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 I'm setting bar for D.C. proper at seeing an inch of slop on decks and grass, and even that is gonna be tough I think. We don't do cold chasing precip well in the immediate metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, DCTeacherman said: I'm setting bar for D.C. proper at seeing an inch of slop on decks and grass, and even that is gonna be tough I think. We don't do cold chasing precip well in the immediate metro. I'll support that idea, for about the third time this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, BTRWx said: Someone please explain what the icon model is. It's the German version of a short range GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, BTRWx said: Someone please explain what the icon model is. Something Bob has found and can use to tease everybody with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: It's the German version of a short range GFS. Danke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, BTRWx said: I'll support that idea, for about the third time this year! I've been burned so many times hoping good dynamics would overcome a putrid antecedent air mass, and I usually come up empty handed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's the German version of a short range GFS. Probably drives better than it predicts weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: I'm setting bar for D.C. proper at seeing an inch of slop on decks and grass, and even that is gonna be tough I think. We don't do cold chasing precip well in the immediate metro. I first read this as you were sitting in a bar.. and thinking - wow this winter has been so bad that.. oh wait! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, BTRWx said: I'll support that idea, for about the third time this year! I've been burned so many times hoping good dynamics would overcome a putrid antecedent air mass, and I usually come up empty handed. 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: I first read this as you were sitting in a bar.. and thinking - wow this winter has been so bad that.. oh wait! LOL Sitting in a bar at 10:10 am on a Monday waiting for the GFS run to come out would be a low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: I've been burned so many times hoping good dynamics would overcome a putrid antecedent air mass, and I usually come up empty handed. Sitting in a bar at 10:10 am on a Monday waiting for the GFS run to come out would be a low. I was going to say... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 12 NAM cobb output for wesminster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Since the track of this weeks possible event is being influenced more by the speed/depth/placement of the departing low and its effect on height fields in its wake vs. the more typical departing high kinda of deal, keep an eye on height contours each panel. 6z gfs lowered heights just a little from 0z. That's an important trend because we are walking a thin line with little wiggle room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 heh, gfs trended the wrong way with heights. Not liking it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 The gfs is deeper at h5. No way for it not to be further nw. The NAM giveth, the GFS taketh away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: heh, gfs trended the wrong way with heights. Not liking it. Such is life here in the Mid Atlantic...well..south and central mid atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 500's are improving once again. Sharper and deeper trough setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The gfs is deeper at h5. No way for it not to be further nw. The NAM giveth, the GFS taketh away. That and the departing low is just a little faster this run. Bad combo. Euro will save us. Or NYC. One or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The gfs is deeper at h5. No way for it not to be further nw. The NAM giveth, the GFS taketh away. The trough was also noticeably sharper which resulted in it turning north faster as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, showmethesnow said: 500's are improving once again. Sharper and deeper trough setting up. The deeper part is the killer this time. It bumped heights in front. We need this thing to slow down by about 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Such is life here in the Mid Atlantic...well..south and central mid atlantic Oh well, this one never had much potential for I-95 anyway. Perhaps the far N-W burbs can score something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The gfs is deeper at h5. No way for it not to be further nw. The NAM giveth, the GFS taketh away. That all depends. Depends on how quickly we see a negative tilt. In this case I think we will be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, packfan98 said: The trough was also noticeably sharper which resulted in it turning north faster as well. That's what I meant when I said deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, DCTeacherman said: Oh well, this one never had much potential for I-95 anyway. Perhaps the far N-W burbs can score something. Not as modeled by the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 We finally get a threat inside 5 days to show up and we get this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: That's what I meant when I said deeper. Got it. I thought you were referring to the energy being stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Not as modeled by the gfs. It's not the track that is killing us though. We want to see the 500's like this or maybe even a little deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 minute ago, packfan98 said: Got it. I thought you were referring to the energy being stronger. yea, usually that's the case for such a statement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 This winter has been terrible. It's a bad year. Plain and simple. However, all we need is this thing to slow down a little or LP placement be 50 miles south east and everyone's back in the game. Again, based on this winter so far, probably not going to happen but we still have another 2-3 runs to get some decent shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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