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February Medium/Long Range Disco Thread 2

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Nice trend in the long range the last 24 hours, and its not just the storm later this week, which is quickly closing in on not being a long range storm anymore.  

Taking them one at a time....

I have been trying not to get too invested in the day 3/4 thing because I know from experience these type of setups, progressive wave along a pressing boundary behind a stronger departing storm tend to be volatile at best and shift around quite a bit.  I can remember a great number of these type systems over the years and I cannot remember a single one where the details were locked in or modeled well from even 72 hours out.  I am not saying these cannot work, they do work, and we get a decent snow from a setup like this from time to time, but its a setup for a letdown buying the details on the guidance from this range.  Too many small influences have a big effect on these type setups.  There is no significant H5 feature or blocking to keep a stable look run to run.  The timing of the cold front pressing, and the small differences in the energy and amplitude of the wave along the front each run will shift the boundary around and drive you crazy.  So its there, but I am not going to really start to worry about specifics on the guidance until tonight if its still in our area, and even then might be too soon.

After that there is a threat of something in the day 9-12 range.  A trough looks to build in the east, probably a response to the MJO spiking into phase 8.  Right now all the guidance agrees on a clipper diving in and sharpening the trough.  It is unlikely it has a significant impact on our area right now, its coming from pretty far north.  But after that there is a threat of something coming out of the south if enough energy ejects out of the southwest.  The threat has been there buried in the noise of the long range ensembles for days.  What we want is a stronger and faster ejection of energy from the southwest.  Get that out around day 8/9 and we probably get a storm day 10/11.  If it stalls and waits too long we lose the cold and the chance to phase something with the northern branch.  

Finally, beyond that, the torch looks to be muted and short lived on the long range now.  We are probably going to get a few days of warm as the trough crashes into the west pumping heights in the east, but its becoming likely that is very transient.  Models are trending towards what was talked about as our "way out" where instead of the trough sitting in the west and killing us, a piece retrogrades and the rest cuts under the ridging that becomes centered over Canada.  That isn't a bad look for us.  I am almost shocked the guidance is heading towards exactly what I "wanted" to see for a change. It would not be a cold look necessarily.  North America is in pretty bad shape in that regards right now.  But it wouldn't be warm, and with a southern storm track cutting under blocking and highs across the north, it can be cold enough if we get some of those storms to cut across VA beach.  If things progress the way the ensembles are hinting we may have another window of opportunity around Feb 25 on.  

At least there is growing concensus for the AO, which is currently negative right now to take another step down, this is supported by the EPS as well , and because of this the middle of the month has some potential . We have lacked the cooperation of the - AO for months this winter, maybe this will help out chances.  

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BTRWx

BTRWx

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

EPS snowfall means have increased roughly an inch region wide from its 12Z counterpart. DC and north now sit within the 2 inch means with the 2 1/2 inch draped over the northern counties. The control run, which has been Dr No for most of the winter, would have many doing back flips with 2 inches just south of DC and up to 4 1/2 inches just to the north of Baltimore through the favored northern tier regions. Not going to break it down but there has also been a very notable uptick on the number of members that get meaningful snow into all or part of the DC/Balt region. Put another way, the 00Z is much more generous with the pretty colors vs. the 12Z's mostly black and white version.

Great to hear!

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snowmagnet

snowmagnet

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Nice trend in the long range the last 24 hours, and its not just the storm later this week, which is quickly closing in on not being a long range storm anymore.  

Taking them one at a time....

I have been trying not to get too invested in the day 3/4 thing because I know from experience these type of setups, progressive wave along a pressing boundary behind a stronger departing storm tend to be volatile at best and shift around quite a bit.  I can remember a great number of these type systems over the years and I cannot remember a single one where the details were locked in or modeled well from even 72 hours out.  I am not saying these cannot work, they do work, and we get a decent snow from a setup like this from time to time, but its a setup for a letdown buying the details on the guidance from this range.  Too many small influences have a big effect on these type setups.  There is no significant H5 feature or blocking to keep a stable look run to run.  The timing of the cold front pressing, and the small differences in the energy and amplitude of the wave along the front each run will shift the boundary around and drive you crazy.  So its there, but I am not going to really start to worry about specifics on the guidance until tonight if its still in our area, and even then might be too soon.

After that there is a threat of something in the day 9-12 range.  A trough looks to build in the east, probably a response to the MJO spiking into phase 8.  Right now all the guidance agrees on a clipper diving in and sharpening the trough.  It is unlikely it has a significant impact on our area right now, its coming from pretty far north.  But after that there is a threat of something coming out of the south if enough energy ejects out of the southwest.  The threat has been there buried in the noise of the long range ensembles for days.  What we want is a stronger and faster ejection of energy from the southwest.  Get that out around day 8/9 and we probably get a storm day 10/11.  If it stalls and waits too long we lose the cold and the chance to phase something with the northern branch.  

Finally, beyond that, the torch looks to be muted and short lived on the long range now.  We are probably going to get a few days of warm as the trough crashes into the west pumping heights in the east, but its becoming likely that is very transient.  Models are trending towards what was talked about as our "way out" where instead of the trough sitting in the west and killing us, a piece retrogrades and the rest cuts under the ridging that becomes centered over Canada.  That isn't a bad look for us.  I am almost shocked the guidance is heading towards exactly what I "wanted" to see for a change. It would not be a cold look necessarily.  North America is in pretty bad shape in that regards right now.  But it wouldn't be warm, and with a southern storm track cutting under blocking and highs across the north, it can be cold enough if we get some of those storms to cut across VA beach.  If things progress the way the ensembles are hinting we may have another window of opportunity around Feb 25 on.  

Thanks for the great analysis for those of us amateurs. I am sort of feeling positive about the chance for Thursday's potential because I tend to have more confidence in the Euro and I remember reading somewhere last week about a chance of a storm on the heels of the Super Bowl storm (that wasn't meant to be). I remember several instances in the past several years of the Euro seeing a storm 10 days out and then losing it, only to bring it back. With that said, I'm not holding my breath, but one can hold out hope. 

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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

NAM is slower, drier, colder.  Don't know if it is going to pop a storm or not.  Probably will.  Perhaps the delay will be beneficial.

It's the NAM, but def an improvement. I went from nada IMBY to ~6 inches? 

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted
Just now, showmethesnow said:

Biggest take away with the NAM is that it is strengthening sooner with a more organized and consolidated low. Which we need to help draw the cold air into the region as well as to give us the rates to overcome the surface.

I'll defer to you on the strengthening sooner, but it is most definitely slower with the storm and that is helping IMO.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

euro weeklies could be good tonight, I liked where the EPS was heading at the end of its run.  The GEFS is heading that way too.  The look day 15 is getting good.  Lower heights developing all across the southern CONUS, with ridging centered up near Hudson  Bay but extending north across the AO and NAO domain and lower heights in the western north Atlantic (50/50) space.  That was headed towards a money look if it continued to evolve the way I imagined it would.  Would like to actually get to see it this evening.  The euro weeklies have actually be half decent in week 3.  The problem has been all winter they try to develop "good stuff" week 4-6 and it's never happened.  If the weeklies progress the "good stuff" from week 4 into week 3 tonight confidence increases somewhat that a window end of Feb into March could be real.  

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

I'll defer to you on the strengthening sooner, but it is most definitely slower with the storm and that is helping IMO.

Yeah after I had posted it I realized I didn't mention the slower part which also helps in giving more time for the cold air to seep south.

As far as strengthening just look at the low compared to the washed out mess we had on the 06Z run.

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BTRWx

BTRWx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I'll defer to you on the strengthening sooner, but it is most definitely slower with the storm and that is helping IMO.

Look at the 4km.  End of its run has precip way back in sw VA KY! on its last frames!  Much slower

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BTRWx

BTRWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Someone post the NAM snow map as an overlay to the snow map from the January storm that hit Norfolk and the DE beaches. The area in the middle is the true screw zone.

I've lost almost all my trust in the NAM outputs beyond 24 hours or so.

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Yeah after I had posted it I realized I didn't mention the slower part which also helps in giving more time for the cold air to seep south.

As far as strengthening just look at the low compared to the washed out mess we had on the 06Z run.

Agree.  Slower is definitely going to be better with this one.

I wonder what the top end and bottom end of this thing is.  Well, I take that back, I know what the bottom end is.

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