February Medium/Long Range Disco Thread 2

[Chase]

3 minutes ago, BTRWx said:

This run proves to me that I have no control over euro analysis with such low res and time gaps.  Subscribers are our only hope!

Ryan Maue's tweet shows enough for me to perk up.  12z Thursday 540 line runs King George to Lynchburg. Moderate precip all over. 

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, BTRWx said:

Any more fine details?  and what's jv stand for?

Junior varsity.

Its like the 12z gfs but a little colder. 6 hours of white asteroids and broken branches but the roads clear themselves. Lol

[BTRWx]

3 minutes ago, Chase said:

Ryan Maue's tweet shows enough for me to perk up.  12z Thursday 540 line runs King George to Lynchburg. Moderate precip all over. 

Until caught, if you have facebook, a map got leaked! https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/16602660_370354493348118_8955003211451285772_n.jpg?oh=1217234463de17c87e36bf648edcde1d&oe=58FE21FB

[Chase]

9 hours ago, BTRWx said:

 

Map shows 3-5 for all of LWX-land except far southern areas and west of HGR.

[showmethesnow]

I think the EPS would meet with the approval of everyone within the DC/Balt corridor.

[showmethesnow]

EPS snowfall means have increased roughly an inch region wide from its 12Z counterpart. DC and north now sit within the 2 inch means with the 2 1/2 inch draped over the northern counties. The control run, which has been Dr No for most of the winter, would have many doing back flips with 2 inches just south of DC and up to 4 1/2 inches just to the north of Baltimore through the favored northern tier regions. Not going to break it down but there has also been a very notable uptick on the number of members that get meaningful snow into all or part of the DC/Balt region. Put another way, the 00Z is much more generous with the pretty colors vs. the 12Z's mostly black and white version.

[showmethesnow]

Not hard to see why there were improvements with EPS when you look at the 500's. The east coast trough goes negative tilt as the low passes underneath us vs. the 12Z where the trough is still positive. This allows the low to begin strengthening sooner while in a more favorable local for our region. This can be seen on the surface reflection where the low pressure means have increased as well as drawn the low closer into the coast. We also see a an uptick in qpf. Best guesstimate of .1-.2 region wide.

 

[mappy]

I'm hugging the 00z GFS

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, mappy said:

I'm hugging the 00z GFS

If nothing else,  ignore the 6z run. It "Falcons" you.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2017020606&fh=138&xpos=0&ypos=116

[showmethesnow]

21 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

If nothing else,  ignore the 6z run. It "Falcons" you.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2017020606&fh=138&xpos=0&ypos=116

Yeah, it's an ugly run for our storm. Call me old fashioned but I don't take much stock in the off runs of the GFS. ***Cue the Met telling me that statistically they are better then the 00Z and 12Z***  

 

[showmethesnow]

GFS in the longer range is interesting. Has a day 10 storm that gets snow into the region and a day 15 that just misses with temps. Both look strong with decent amounts of precip.

[Ralph Wiggum]

The difference between CMC and GFS at both the surface and 500 is pretty hilarious.

Cras has the wave NW of Buffalo so there's that.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Can you imagine what a 3-6" wet snow paste job would do for the mood of this forum. Please....

That would be like a late Super Bowl Tom Brady-ish comeback to this horrid winter. Dancing in the streets would break out and champagne bottle poppin'.

[mappy]

06z GFS isn't bad IMBY for the Thursday possible snow. 72hr is snow per soundings. Wishing there was more precip though. About 2" IMBY

[psuhoffman]

28 minutes ago, mappy said:

06z GFS isn't bad IMBY for the Thursday possible snow. 72hr is snow per soundings. Wishing there was more precip though. About 2" IMBY

If the gfs is right about the thermal boundary we might have to start our own thread for this one or else they might actually redistrict us out. 

[mappy]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

If the gfs is right about the thermal boundary we might have to start our own thread for this one or else they might actually redistrict us out. 

 yeah, I was looking at 00z, that is even nicer for us, though soundings show some freezing rain. but .7qpf when all is said and done. 

[psuhoffman]

22 minutes ago, mappy said:

 yeah, I was looking at 00z, that is even nicer for us, though soundings show some freezing rain. but .7qpf when all is said and done. 

This feels like the kind of event we "should" do well up here.  At least in a normal year these marginal type events are how we usually roll but this year we have had no luck with them, each one trending warm at the last minute so I am less enthusiastic then I would be normally.  I think my brain is trying the reverse psychology thing with Mother nature.  

[mappy]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

This feels like the kind of event we "should" do well up here.  At least in a normal year these marginal type events are how we usually roll but this year we have had no luck with them, each one trending warm at the last minute so I am less enthusiastic then I would be normally.  I think my brain is trying the reverse psychology thing with Mother nature.  

I've been keeping my eye on it. Even a few inches would be a win for me. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If the gfs is right about the thermal boundary we might have to start our own thread for this one or else they might actually redistrict us out. 

This is cut throat at this point.  I ain't worried about anybody except me.

If it snows here, I'm lighting this place up with pics.

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

This feels like the kind of event we "should" do well up here.  At least in a normal year these marginal type events are how we usually roll but this year we have had no luck with them, each one trending warm at the last minute so I am less enthusiastic then I would be normally.  I think my brain is trying the reverse psychology thing with Mother nature.  

Strangely enough I am somewhat optimistic that we see this trend better over the next couple of days. 500's have been taking tiny steps forward over the last few runs and would not be surprised if we start seeing this reflected on the Op runs. EPS started hitting on the improvements overnight.

[WinterWxLuvr]

The gfs members suggest we are really walking a tightrope this time.  Many looked like predominantly rain to me.

[CAPE]

Just now, showmethesnow said:

Strangely enough I am somewhat optimistic that we see this trend better over the next couple of days. 500's have been taking tiny steps forward over the last few runs and would not be surprised if we start seeing this reflected on the Op runs. EPS started hitting on the improvements overnight.

It probably wont work out this way, but the Euro would be a nice region wide hit. One way this could fail is for it to come together a bit late and target places just NE of our region. Hints of that on the EPS.

[mappy]

7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The gfs members suggest we are really walking a tightrope this time.  Many looked like predominantly rain to me.

 

[showmethesnow]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

It probably wont work out this way, but the Euro would be a nice region wide hit. One way this could fail is for it to come together a bit late and target places just NE of our region. Hints of that on the EPS.

Looked to me that we were seeing the low begin it's intensification sooner then we had on previous runs. Individual members were also showing a more robust low to our south as well. Which makes sense when you noticed the quicker negative tilt showing up on the 500's.

[mappy]

FWIW -- 45 out of 51 euro ens members have some snow in the area through 00z Fri

[psuhoffman]

Nice trend in the long range the last 24 hours, and its not just the storm later this week, which is quickly closing in on not being a long range storm anymore.  

Taking them one at a time....

I have been trying not to get too invested in the day 3/4 thing because I know from experience these type of setups, progressive wave along a pressing boundary behind a stronger departing storm tend to be volatile at best and shift around quite a bit.  I can remember a great number of these type systems over the years and I cannot remember a single one where the details were locked in or modeled well from even 72 hours out.  I am not saying these cannot work, they do work, and we get a decent snow from a setup like this from time to time, but its a setup for a letdown buying the details on the guidance from this range.  Too many small influences have a big effect on these type setups.  There is no significant H5 feature or blocking to keep a stable look run to run.  The timing of the cold front pressing, and the small differences in the energy and amplitude of the wave along the front each run will shift the boundary around and drive you crazy.  So its there, but I am not going to really start to worry about specifics on the guidance until tonight if its still in our area, and even then might be too soon.

After that there is a threat of something in the day 9-12 range.  A trough looks to build in the east, probably a response to the MJO spiking into phase 8.  Right now all the guidance agrees on a clipper diving in and sharpening the trough.  It is unlikely it has a significant impact on our area right now, its coming from pretty far north.  But after that there is a threat of something coming out of the south if enough energy ejects out of the southwest.  The threat has been there buried in the noise of the long range ensembles for days.  What we want is a stronger and faster ejection of energy from the southwest.  Get that out around day 8/9 and we probably get a storm day 10/11.  If it stalls and waits too long we lose the cold and the chance to phase something with the northern branch.  

Finally, beyond that, the torch looks to be muted and short lived on the long range now.  We are probably going to get a few days of warm as the trough crashes into the west pumping heights in the east, but its becoming likely that is very transient.  Models are trending towards what was talked about as our "way out" where instead of the trough sitting in the west and killing us, a piece retrogrades and the rest cuts under the ridging that becomes centered over Canada.  That isn't a bad look for us.  I am almost shocked the guidance is heading towards exactly what I "wanted" to see for a change. It would not be a cold look necessarily.  North America is in pretty bad shape in that regards right now.  But it wouldn't be warm, and with a southern storm track cutting under blocking and highs across the north, it can be cold enough if we get some of those storms to cut across VA beach.  If things progress the way the ensembles are hinting we may have another window of opportunity around Feb 25 on.  

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, mappy said:

FWIW -- 45 out of 51 euro ens members have some snow in the area through 00z Fri

There is a good old fashioned battle in the never ending model war going on right now.  Clear lines drawn with the GEFS favoring across PA with the track of the best snows and the Euro clearly having the bulls-eye over us.  Ironically we have played this battle out numerous times when the euro is playing the role of Dr No and of course it wins each time.  So it will be interested to see if now the GFS scores the win when it has flipped roles.  

[birdsofprey02]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There is a good old fashioned battle in the never ending model war going on right now.  Clear lines drawn with the GEFS favoring across PA with the track of the best snows and the Euro clearly having the bulls-eye over us.  Ironically we have played this battle out numerous times when the euro is playing the role of Dr No and of course it wins each time.  So it will be interested to see if now the GFS scores the win when it has flipped roles.  

Is this the first "hit" we've seen from the Euro, within a 5 day window, this Winter?

[WinterWxLuvr]

18 minutes ago, mappy said:

 

Wow, that's even worse than it looked on the psu site.

We better hope for a better push of cold on the upcoming runs.

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, birdsofprey02 said:

Is this the first "hit" we've seen from the Euro, within a 5 day window, this Winter?

That I can think of yes, and definitely of any consequence.