WxUSAF Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Talk about cool rain ITT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 @showmethesnow "Shoveling 3" at 8pm? Were you in Pikesville at the time? Don't even think I had even seen any snow in the air by the time I went to bed at 8 or 9. Only started snowing up my way when the low exploded off the coast later that night." I was living in Upper Marlboro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, PennQuakerGirl said: Do I still have to make good on my promise to kiss every member of this board if we get 6"+? Pretty sure you said 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Pretty cold mid levels rushing in but surface obviously lags. Should be some pretty good lift somewhere with that kind of gradient. Timing is good in the wee hours. I'd rather have marginal temps then than at 1pm. Of course we're only in tease range so it's prob smarter to focus on actually having a storm vs temps and how much precip. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 For those discussing old storms in the previous thread maybe we should take that to banter if you are game. With what looks to be a legit threat popping up we probably don't want to clutter up the thread. We will need to focus on our next fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, PennQuakerGirl said: Do I still have to make good on my promise to kiss every member of this board if we get 6"+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Nam with 1007 low in East Texas..fwiw Looks like a race between HP trying to filter in a N/NW flow/CAA vs the speed of the STJ energy. Of course this is the NAM at 84 so, yeah, there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Pretty sure you said 2" Heh...no comment, the possibilities for RR-like statements and double-entendres with it are endless! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Looks like the NAM lags the GFS by about 6 hours at h5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, PennQuakerGirl said: Do we...want that? Tough to say...it is the 84 hour NAM, so grain of salt and all that. But interesting. 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: That could be a good thing . Cold bleeds in first maybe Maybe that...and imply it being a bit stronger as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, PennQuakerGirl said: Do we...want that? You do. I don't nor do any other NYC or people further north. The later this gets going allowing the high to press down the more likely this is mainly a MA event. The trend this winter though has been for that not to happen. At the same time though the pattern is progressive in this period where this happens so I'm thinking the 06Z GFS scenario as I see it now is too far NW, at the same time the Op Euro may be too far SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drezee Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 The NAM is no lock at 84 at the surface. I will say the look at 84 is nice for the MA. The cold air presses between that 988 low and the high pressure, the column would like be A-OK DC North. My eyebrow is raised... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 As far as the cold arriving on time for our possible day 4/5 storm one thing we might want to keep an eye on is the lead low running into the lakes. We would probably want to see the track of that low start adjusting to the south and east which would pull the boundary, along with the cold, south and east with it. Another consideration is to see a little more separation between the lakes low and the followup low. Gives a little more time to allow the cold to bleed in as well as giving a little more room for our storm to amplify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Sterling is at least mentioning a threat for something interestingly. How big could this get? Nobody really knows in such a volatile pattern! Slow the bandwagon please. Shift in 00Z GFS/ECMWF guidance for Wednesday night/Thursday with both favoring a rapid cool down from a warm Wednesday and snow by late Wednesday night. The upper trough axis shifts east across the Mid-Atlantic Thursday. Surface low pressure development ahead this trough occurs over NC late Wednesday night before pushing offshore. Possible kissing jet streams overhead would enhance lift over decent surface moisture. Will need to monitor future runs for this midweek snow potential as model variability has been great. Will note that the 00Z GFS/ECMWF have good agreement with low level frontogenesis on the north side of the low center. Given the warmth of the previous day, this would likely be a snow on grassy surfaces if it indeed snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, BTRWx said: Sterling is at least mentioning a threat for something interestingly. How big could this get? Nobody really knows in such a volatile pattern! Slow the bandwagon please. Shift in 00Z GFS/ECMWF guidance for Wednesday night/Thursday with both favoring a rapid cool down from a warm Wednesday and snow by late Wednesday night. The upper trough axis shifts east across the Mid-Atlantic Thursday. Surface low pressure development ahead this trough occurs over NC late Wednesday night before pushing offshore. Possible kissing jet streams overhead would enhance lift over decent surface moisture. Will need to monitor future runs for this midweek snow potential as model variability has been great. Will note that the 00Z GFS/ECMWF have good agreement with low level frontogenesis on the north side of the low center. Given the warmth of the previous day, this would likely be a snow on grassy surfaces if it indeed snows. Here's rooting for the kissing jet streams! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Here's rooting for the kissing jet streams! Very odd way of them saying the jet streams could align. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, BTRWx said: Very odd way of them saying the jet streams could align. Ha! Yeah, maybe they're in the Valentine's Day spirit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Ha! Yeah, maybe they're in the Valentine's Day spirit! Or they want a kiss from Penn Quaker girl too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 If the surface is going to be marginal then it's the cliche "rates will overcome". Mitch approves of this panel: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: If the surface is going to be marginal then it's the cliche "rates will overcome". Mitch approves of this panel: Those are some sweet looking VVs right over us, for sure...paste bomb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Or they want a kiss from Penn Quaker girl too LMAO! Well played... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 39 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Heh...no comment, the possibilities for RR-like statements and double-entendres with it are endless! I thought she said she only wanted to kiss people with 6" or more, on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, ravensrule said: I thought she said she only wanted to kiss people with 6" or more, on the ground. Cheeky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 It's early and maybe I shouldn't comment but gfs seems slower than earlier run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 NCEP should consider hiring her as the new face of weather: PRESS RELEASE NCEP FOR IMMEDIATE DISTRO 06 FEB 2017 Things are heating up at NCEP and we don't mean the weather. We would like to introduce our newest member of our forecasting team... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 I'm still not ready to start the detailed analysis and eventual heartbreak on this yet. As many have accurately pointed out this threat has been there hidden within the noise of the guidance for a long time. But it's not a long lead tracking type event. Progressive wave along a pressing boundary can work and has worked but it's the kind of thing that often undergoes significant changes in guidance leading up. It's a very good sign things are trending better now but it could still get pulled out from under us. I'm not saying it's not a legit threat just proceed with caution. Two recent example of this type setup with a low to our north then a follow up wave would be march 5 2015 and early feb 2014. 2015 worked out and the other was a late fail after it trended better initially so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Heh, gfs is colder and more organized earlier. Nice run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Heh, gfs is colder and more organzied earlier. Nice run. I'm still at 81...im guessing you're way ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Looks like its gonna be a no go on the GFS to me No, it's there. Just not sure if it's going to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 It's the proverbial wet paste job. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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