mahk_webstah Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 39 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I told my wife yesterday to leave tonight (from Dover) rather than tomorrow, for business in NYC. Looks like a real mess around here tomorrow--winter storm warning criteria. And I assume pretty much the same up here. Glad there are some NNE folks in here because the SNE people are focusing on Thursday (understandably). You could be in the sweetspot for both events by end of day Thursday...perhaps someone on this board sees 12 from both combined, and you would be in the right spot. BTW off topic but we might be moving to Dover for 9 months starting in April, while our house is being built up here. I'll have to PM you at some point and ask about Dover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 6, 2017 Author Share Posted February 6, 2017 24 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: And I assume pretty much the same up here. Glad there are some NNE folks in here because the SNE people are focusing on Thursday (understandably). You could be in the sweetspot for both events by end of day Thursday...perhaps someone on this board sees 12 from both combined, and you would be in the right spot. BTW off topic but we might be moving to Dover for 9 months starting in April, while our house is being built up here. I'll have to PM you at some point and ask about Dover. It still looks wintery in my SNE location... nothing great I think this is the 4th similar event this season 1-3" of mixed crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: If QPF was higher tomorrow during the day and evening, this would be a pretty concerning icing setup over parts of interior SNE/CNE...but the precip staying relatively light should be a mitigating factor to too much accretion. Still, could be quite nasty for like 12+ hours...might be isolated pockets that get >3/8" accretion. I agree. I'm worried about some light rain moving in right at 12z too... might introduce problems across a good chunk of CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 9 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I agree. I'm worried about some light rain moving in right at 12z too... might introduce problems across a good chunk of CT. Euro is pretty stubborn with the CAD through 06z....so there could be a pretty prolonged period of icing. Again, the QPF is probably the mitigating factor here. It's mostly light precip. It shows the northern half of CT below freezing at 12z...then it jumps it north into ORH county at 18z, but that diurnal variable in the model is often overdone on a CAD setup...wouldn't be surprised if a lot of areas are holding tough below 32F all day and all evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Euro is pretty stubborn with the CAD through 06z....so there could be a pretty prolonged period of icing. Again, the QPF is probably the mitigating factor here. It's mostly light precip. It shows the northern half of CT below freezing at 12z...then it jumps it north into ORH county at 18z, but that diurnal variable in the model is often overdone on a CAD setup...wouldn't be surprised if a lot of areas are holding tough below 32F all day and all evening. Yeah and there's definitely a colder jump on today's run compared to last night. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 hour ago, CT Rain said: Yeah and there's definitely a colder jump on today's run compared to last night. We'll see. Just looking at the NAM Bufkit soundings for BDL, you can see how all the warmth is in the lower levels. So if the CAD hangs tough, that's FZRA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Just looking at the NAM Bufkit soundings for BDL, you can see how all the warmth is in the lower levels. So if the CAD hangs tough, that's FZRA. Tuckky tuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Tuckky tuck Still pretty snowy soundings up here, QPF just the limiting factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 345pm. 24.5/22F Light snow has begun. Wow, that was quick. Was mostly sunny half an hour ago. Clouds moved in followed immediately by light snow. Looking south its still partly cloudy. Really surprised how quickly things changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 All the meso models look pretty icy around here for a while tomorrow. Could be the first good glaze of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Snowy GFS run for the CNE NNE Peeps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 6, 2017 Author Share Posted February 6, 2017 Roads are gonna suck in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Roads are gonna suck in the morning School delays incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Snowy GFS run for the CNE NNE Peeps Might even bang out a few inches here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 6, 2017 Author Share Posted February 6, 2017 13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Snowy GFS run for the CNE NNE Peeps S VT gets a nice event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: Just looking at the NAM Bufkit soundings for BDL, you can see how all the warmth is in the lower levels. So if the CAD hangs tough, that's FZRA. hey stop reducing my snow totals on top of the hill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 hour ago, Lava Rock said: hey stop reducing my snow totals on top of the hill I just messed around with some top-down tools and adjusted what we had in there. I may have actually knocked it down another few tenths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I just messed around with some top-down tools and adjusted what we had in there. I may have actually knocked it down another few tenths. Every time it comes out it is less and less. I just want to get enough to cover the sleet shell and be able to walk in the woods again without falling. IS THAT TOO MUCH TO ASK!!!??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Every time it comes out it is less and less. I just want to get enough to cover the sleet shell and be able to walk in the woods again without falling. IS THAT TOO MUCH TO ASK!!!??? I think some of it is QPF and the rest is warmth aloft. There is going to be a couple hour thump just ahead of the warm air aloft, and that's probably when the bulk of snow falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I think some of it is QPF and the rest is warmth aloft. There is going to be a couple hour thump just ahead of the warm air aloft, and that's probably when the bulk of snow falls. sometimes with waa we can get a healthy band with good snow growth. Hopefully somebody, particularly me, gets that band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 That was a pretty big shift in the GEFS in one run, considering the point of interest was only 36 hr. out. MSLP about 4 mb weaker (990 mb) as it tracks NE into Quebec. Guidance has been gradually weakening this all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 Area school districts starting to announce early closures (mistake there I think) or full day closures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Icy NAM run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 RGEM has quite the heavy snow thump north of the pike tomorrow morning. Esp NE MA. It's been on the colder side of guidance so I wouldn't get hopes up but it's been stubborn. It is colder than the last two runs even. Still something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Bufkit Nam gives KLEB 3.1 snow .38 sleet .39 freezing rain, that's a mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Bufkit Nam gives KLEB 3.1 snow .38 sleet .39 freezing rain, that's a mess How's KFIT for freezing rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 HRRR is ok for a net gain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Down to 26.7 here. Rgem looks icy for awhile in NCT tomorrow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 GFS cooled just a bit. Could be a burst of snow north of pike late morning and early afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS cooled just a bit. Could be a burst of snow north of pike late morning and early afternoon. HRRR really likes a burst of snow just north of the warm front. And then that's really it, doesn't do much from the middle of my CWA on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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