Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, educate said: Box current thinking http://www.weather.gov/box/winter For you guys in the game I hope they're right . But right now there's not much supporting that . Maybe op runs will cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Box forecast doesn't look bad. Euro is prob the only model that fails to give ORH 2" on the front end. It's a good conservative forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Box forecast doesn't look bad. Euro is prob the only model that fails to give ORH 2" on the front end. It's a good conservative forecast. GFS looks like 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Box forecast doesn't look bad. Euro is prob the only model that fails to give ORH 2" on the front end. It's a good conservative forecast. For those numbers to verify in ne mass(especially the "potential" numbers) that would be the proverbial wall of snow for a few hours. Are the dynamics there for this scenario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: For you guys in the game I hope they're right . But right now there's not much supporting that . Maybe op runs will cool This could still be a period of frozen for you. Be nice to see the Euro cave a little at 0z towards the front end thumpy bump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: This could still be a period of frozen for you. Be nice to see the Euro cave a little at 0z towards the front end thumpy bump. It's an hour of sleet brief zr then rain here. I have zero in the game . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, White Rain said: Why does BOX lean so low/conservative on the ice accumulation? If we don't get much snow and temps are below 32 -shouldn't that lead to a fair amount of ZR accretion. Are they thinking it won't adhere efficiently due to rates? It tends to pay to be conservative on ice. Ice storms are rare events because there are a lot of intricacies that need to maintain to produce one. So going with large amounts of ice at this lead time is usually a fool's errand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, White Rain said: I tend to a I tend to agree with that thinking, especially without knowing how much will fall as snow/sleet. Still going with just a couple hundredths to me seems a bit too conservative. In Past years we have had plenty of minor ice events at this locale. The other weird inconsistency I notice with BOX are the snow % accumulations. They have my town at 40% for 2" yet put 3" as the most likely to fall lol Well those snow probabilities definitely have some bugs to work out, we don't actually control those numbers. So don't blame BOX, blame some programmer in his cube. But provide feedback on the website when you see those things, they listen more to the public using it than they do to us complaining about it. I do see they have around a tenth of ice in the hill towns of northern MA though, Sterling might be just a hair too far S of that though looking at their forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, White Rain said: Ok good to know thanks. Being on the extreme set side of hills with a steady down hill to the east/northeast we tend to do much better than one would anticipate in regards to ice in this type of set-up for our elevation. I have experienced many ice events here since I have lived here in 2005. Just something you learn about local climatology living here. Oh definitely, those local effects are huge. But we also have to forecast on a 2.5km by 2.5km grid box scale, so we can't really factor that in all that well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 6, 2017 Author Share Posted February 6, 2017 Still looks wintery for my hood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Still looks wintery for my hood Close call on whether its like 1-2" of snow/sleet or 4-5"...id probably lean lower right now but there definitely looks to be a pretty long period of ZR. Luckily the qpf doesn't look too heavy during it but it could still be pretty nasty for like 12+ hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Still looks wintery for my hood Euro being sort of the warm outlier, none of the models really want to wind this up enough to be a clear cut stem winding cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Close call on whether its like 1-2" of snow/sleet or 4-5"...is probably lean lower right now but there definitely looks to be a pretty long period of ZR. Luckily the qpf doesn't look too heavy during it but it could still be pretty nasty for like 12+ hours. 0z Euro hopefully trends towards weaker primary and triple point forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 POS south of NH on the Euro, I have .2 qpf while SVT over an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: POS south of NH on the Euro, I have .2 qpf while SVT over an inch It's really north with the qpf. It did cool a tad this run aloft so maybe some snow now to start N of pike but the qpf is really paltry. Kind of funny as other guidance has like an inch of qpf here. The dry slot on the euro doesn't really violate anything on the synoptic charts...it's pushing the forcing right into NNE. Though it could be a bit light on the very front. There's good WAA that has to occur. Thats fine with me though. Pushing all the forcing north might actually help the Thursday system a bit as the baroclinic zone doesn't get shunted too far southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Missed a few sets of model runs for the game...this event sure went to hell quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 6, 2017 Author Share Posted February 6, 2017 14 minutes ago, dendrite said: Missed a few sets of model runs for the game...this event sure went to hell quickly. Greatest comeback in... nevermind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Missed a few sets of model runs for the game...this event sure went to hell quickly. I thought we were in line for 4-6? No more? Somebody should tell GYX because they were seriously pondering a WSW as off about 5am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Wow no discussion on this? WWA in BOX and borderline WSW criteria up here? I will have to figure out how to read model output lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 3 hours ago, dendrite said: Missed a few sets of model runs for the game...this event sure went to hell quickly. haha, right Brian - I was on my iPhone during pre-game at my sister's place and saw the 18z FRH (FOUS) had BOS with .64" in an isothermal hammer... and was impressed. I check this morning and the surgical precision in which the NAM sabotaged cycle after cycle of solid suggestion was nothing shy of a 25 point comeback - holy crap.. I think I posted/commiserated in dark sarcasm a couple days ago that something like this may happen... That the models would bring the high pressure back and offer more snowier/colder/winter like impacts, only to pull back at the last moment seemingly by design ... well - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 8 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: It's really north with the qpf. It did cool a tad this run aloft so maybe some snow now to start N of pike but the qpf is really paltry. Kind of funny as other guidance has like an inch of qpf here. The dry slot on the euro doesn't really violate anything on the synoptic charts...it's pushing the forcing right into NNE. Though it could be a bit light on the very front. There's good WAA that has to occur. Thats fine with me though. Pushing all the forcing north might actually help the Thursday system a bit as the baroclinic zone doesn't get shunted too far southeast. Yup! thanks will... I was just commenting on that exact same aspect in the new thread that covers that event - ...zactly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 26 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Wow no discussion on this? WWA in BOX and borderline WSW criteria up here? I will have to figure out how to read model output lol Watching the meso trends closely. 12z NAM ticked colder and weaker for the primary...NNE still needs to watch this very closely, especially eastern half. I think we trend back colder today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 I thought we were in line for 4-6? No more? Somebody should tell GYX because they were seriously pondering a WSW as off about 5am.Went to hell in a hand basket. Next... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digityman Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 http://www.weather.gov/gyx/winter Still calling for 4-6" for Portland area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 21 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Watching the meso trends closely. 12z NAM ticked colder and weaker for the primary...NNE still needs to watch this very closely, especially eastern half. I think we trend back colder today. I think this year that a 4-7 inch snowfall is pretty good from you on north and east. Why is Raymond ME saying it has gone to hell in a handbasket? In other words why is GYX just a few hours ago saying borderline warning? I guess we look at NAM and GFS and RGEM. How is NAM Qpf? I was going to cancel my drive to Dover NH tomorrow morning...maybe now I don't have to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 RGEM is definitely a little more juiced up/snowier on the front end than the NAM across far N MA into NH/ME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 you guys in the Berks probably should pay attention to the rGEM in this setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amc Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 So is freezing rain on an upward track? GYX was bordering a warning earlier... Looks like mass may venturing into ice storm territory Sent from my SM-T377T using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 56 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: I think this year that a 4-7 inch snowfall is pretty good from you on north and east. Why is Raymond ME saying it has gone to hell in a handbasket? In other words why is GYX just a few hours ago saying borderline warning? I guess we look at NAM and GFS and RGEM. How is NAM Qpf? I was going to cancel my drive to Dover NH tomorrow morning...maybe now I don't have to? I told my wife yesterday to leave tonight (from Dover) rather than tomorrow, for business in NYC. Looks like a real mess around here tomorrow--winter storm warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 If QPF was higher tomorrow during the day and evening, this would be a pretty concerning icing setup over parts of interior SNE/CNE...but the precip staying relatively light should be a mitigating factor to too much accretion. Still, could be quite nasty for like 12+ hours...might be isolated pockets that get >3/8" accretion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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