Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 in any event... in terms of countermanding... I don't see any reason why the Euro has to be more right than say the GFS (operational runs) - If we want to base a decision on past performance/skill I suppose I wouldn't take much exception to that course (it may be the least regretful one..). But in terms of applied atmospheric knowledge and experience, the Euro could be wrong and it is in fact the GFS/NAM (sort of) blend with the resistant CAD that makes more Meteorological sense with this. fascinating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Yeah I would actually be skeptical of any attempt to erode CAD quickly. Though the euro still is pretty cold before that at the surface. I think it just nukes the primary a bit more this run and more than other 12z guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Euro at least continues trend of weaker system overall, 985 mb at hr 72 versus 978 at same time for 12z sat run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Euro going to crush it again. Good luck using the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I would actually be skeptical of any attempt to erode CAD quickly. Though the euro still is pretty cold before that at the surface. I think it just nukes the primary a bit more this run and more than other 12z guidance. Agree, even this run is still mostly sub-freezing through most of the precip across N MA into CNE/NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Yeah, it does have that intensity bias with that primary... Interesting... See, we can't discount that, either. Fwiw - GGEM winds up the primary a bit more robustly too - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 5 hours ago, dryslot said: I thought you checked out? I haven't checked out of following any events. I have checked out on this winter achieving close to average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 39 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Euro going to crush it again. Good luck using the GFS You nailed this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, qg_omega said: You nailed this storm I lost my link to the PNS reports for verification, you have one handy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Euro has little to no frozen south of ORH except for Western , Ma and far NW CT and even there It's minimal zr. All op runs strengthened the primary today. Writing is on wall for this one. If you want snow get into C VT and C NH on north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 5 hours ago, dryslot said: I thought you checked out? You can check out anytime you like, but you can never leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 15 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: You can check out anytime you like, but you can never leave. LOL. How much of this do you think may fall as snow in the Bath area? I see 1-3" for Tuesday on the P/C so I guess it's when any mix begins Tuesday night that will tell the tale from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, moneypitmike said: LOL. How much of this do you think may fall as snow in the Bath area? I see 1-3" for Tuesday on the P/C so I guess it's when any mix begins Tuesday night that will tell the tale from there. With that lead wave, there could be a decent amount of snow along the mid level warm front before a flip. The models are definitely favoring the 00-06z window for the warm nose aloft arriving. So I could see 2-4" easy before the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 I mean check out the isentropic lift midday Tuesday. It's not particularly strong (i.e. strong winds on the surface here), but it's steep. Your parcel at 925 mb will end up at around 825 mb over Dendrite's fanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 18z NAM is actually pretty impressive for snow on the front end north of the pike. I'd feel better if the euro could cool just a shade aloft the next couple cycles but something to watch. You can get a heavy band for 2-3 hours in that type of setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 I'm not seeing the synoptic UL support to drive a sub 990 mb low into quebec. The UL mechanics associated with this wave look modest at best. The surface reflection is still too robust on guidance imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 5, 2017 Author Share Posted February 5, 2017 Tenuous. Looks like that earlier 1-3" idea might be better than a 3-6" storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 The potential cold tuck is sort of intriguing. That airmass is darn cold in SW ME and into adjacent SE NH. That could easily ooze into NE MA and near BOS as the mesolow forms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Tenuous. Looks like that earlier 1-3" idea might be better than a 3-6" storm I'd bet you see little to no snow and some icing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: You can check out anytime you like, but you can never leave. Luv the eagles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The potential cold tuck is sort of intriguing. That airmass is darn cold in SW ME and into adjacent SE NH. That could easily ooze into NE MA and near BOS as the mesolow forms. Agreed. I actually think the NAM may be more instructive than usual in this case, because I'm seeing the potential for a series of meso lows along the baroclinic zone out ahead of the main wave, which should act to dampen and disrupt the primary low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 18z rgem is very cold. Has highest snowfall in central MA to the coast through 48 with more to come after... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, jbenedet said: 18z rgem is very cold. Has highest snowfall in central MA to the coast through 48 with more to come after... Yeah. Still out of its good range though. But if it verified that is warning criteria snowfall pike northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, jbenedet said: 18z rgem is very cold. Has highest snt modelowfall in central MA to the coast through 48 with more to come after... Yeah....Snowing hard I90 N & E @ noon. Coldest model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 GFS is really wound up with the primary.... gets down to 975 north of Maine. Cant imagine that is going to bode well for the wave after either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 13 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: GFS is really wound up with the primary.... gets down to 975 north of Maine. Cant imagine that is going to bode well for the wave after either There's clearly a potent meso low around CC/GOM at hr 60 that the GFS struggling with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Torch GFS. Bows to Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Torch GFS. Bows to Euro Still looks pretty cold at the surface to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Still looks pretty cold at the surface to me. Well yeah that's what I meant. Torch aloft ..All ice north of Pike with little to no snow. Euros had that several runs now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Well yeah that's what I meant. Torch aloft ..All ice north of Pike with little to no snow. Euros had that several runs now Box current thinking http://www.weather.gov/box/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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