CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 It's such a dumb game he plays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 10 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: It's after February 1, so Kevin's dreams have shifted to being about reporting BDL temps and rolls of toilet paper. I thought you checked out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 At any rate. Enjoy it north Mass on north. Outside looking in blows . I'm invested in follow up wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: At any rate. Enjoy it north Mass on north. Outside looking in blows . I'm invested in follow up wave Follow up wave could be flurries easily. One at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: I thought you checked out? Those who checked out in the deep interior in the beginning of Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Those who checked out in the deep interior in the beginning of Feb. I know, But it was mentioned numerous about this regime was for storms to show up in shorter order so i don't get the canceling of winter from some, I know its frustrating for many but its the first week of Feb..........................lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: I know, But it was mentioned numerous about this regime was for storms to show up in shorter order so i don't get the canceling of winter from some, I know its frustrating for many but its the first week of Feb..........................lol Well it's frustrating and it may get hostile towards mid month, but hopefully we sneak a couple of events in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well it's frustrating and it may get hostile towards mid month, but hopefully we sneak a couple of events in. Have to live for the moment, One event at a time and then we will see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 55 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: One of his multiple personalities. This is reverse psychology Kevin. It's not his "personality" as much as it is his ego. Despite loving wintery weather, he is still trying to become fully vested in a forecast that is turning out to be completely wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 5, 2017 Author Share Posted February 5, 2017 25 minutes ago, dryslot said: I know, But it was mentioned numerous about this regime was for storms to show up in shorter order so i don't get the canceling of winter from some, I know its frustrating for many but its the first week of Feb..........................lol Conducive to multiple PITA events like this. No biggies but some nickels. It is what it is We take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Conducive to multiple PITA events like this. No biggies but some nickels. It is what it is We take It is what it has been, You have to accept the fact that these nickel and dimes are the types we may end up seeing the rest of winter just based on what most of these have been so far, If we luck out and get an MECS along the way, So be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 It is what it has been, You have to accept the fact that these nickel and dimes are the types we may end up seeing the rest of winter just based on what most of these have been so far, If we luck out and get an MECS along the way, So be it.The winter of stat padders albeit small ones. A few more pennies added to the pot with this system. You and I have had our mecs. I'd be happy with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Have you ever known me to take the GFS over the Euro and consensus? Ever? When the Gfs is alone in showing cold solution.. proceed with ultra caution Yes...when it gives you the best chance of wintry/and/or highest snowfall amounts. I lol'd at the 60F number for midweek in Wilimantic. Awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 18 minutes ago, Hazey said: The winter of stat padders albeit small ones. A few more pennies added to the pot with this system. You and I have had our mecs. I'd be happy with that. You have done better on the MECS then here, We had one, But thats better then most having none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Euro keeps 2m temps below freezing for much of the event along MA/VT/NH border. Would only take a tic or two more to get that a little further S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 NAM gives a few inches even to BOS it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Nice warning crit on the NAM. There should be some decent isentropic lift over that dome. That's a mighty impressive thermal gradient right up through the mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Pretty solid front end thump on the GFS. It also struggles to warm sector Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 So what? People are allowed to "check out and check in" - in fact, for normal folk, that's how they deal with realities they have no control over. I 'checked out' on winter a month ago when it was clear to me this was going to hand-wringer year. I could care less and have little patience/desire to direct wonder and awe in banality and futility. Good Christ, I certainly hope everyone involved in this collection pool of snow-codependency has the fortitude to do the same when it is clear that reality requires they do so.. Just imho, but folks should like the broader spectrum of Meteorology ...really, all Natural Sciences. If it's going to snow and ice or wind or Earth Quake or asteroid impact or a dark lord being elected president... everyone's tunes back in - hello. yeah yeah - obviously the whole tracking other's checking out and checking in thing is really just a ball bust psychology babble ... Whatever. So, this is looking like a winter storm warning level mess to me. I don't even have to look at the tools that point out discrete critical thickness this that or the other thing - I've seen this sort of system play out over decades enough, a hundred times to just know. This sort of winter storm meets criteria in the aggregate (no pun intended)/ cocktail variety ...say 4 to 5" inch IB snow burst for N of the Pike...west of I95, followed by as much as .15" or even .3" in glaze along the line that extends west to east about mid way between NYC and Bangor Maine; modulate toward more frozen and less freezing depending on latitude. Although, the cold will tend to compress the actual transition zones a bit south of equidistance; NYC should be 33.4 F misery that is a solid MOS bust but not enough for people to fill their buns with relish ketchup and mustered. What recent runs are doing is actually beefing up the lead-side polar high over Ontario, and interestingly... after a couple of cycles of trending faster east with said high (yesterday), the balance of very recent runs across really all models has actually modulated back the other way ... slower and more conserved in that regard. At this point, having the Euro do so at the 00z run ...and recent NAM notions (with its super high resolution really picking out that boundary layer) of resistant low level PP in the interior, I don't see this warm sector getting much N of NYC if at all. Could be wrong - willing to let the chips fall where they may on that at this point. That much high parked N and holding out until the last minute as the primary low carves up the St Lawrence Valley like that is a slam dunk triple pointer if I've ever seen one. Done deal in my mind. Of course... the high could ease off anyway (and probably will just because I aver this declaration :axe:) at the last second, busting the models ... if so, so be it. Excluding that possibility... I would go with a winter weather advisory for the Northern half of CT and NW RI and then cookie cutter that up I95 over eastern MA. N of the Pike ..say Rt 2 and points N may want to consider warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Caveat: excluding actual Logan Airport over far eastern Mass ... It looks like the advisory should go right to the coast. But I'd definitely consider a warning for midway between the Pike an Rt2 and points N. Could even be nearing ice-storm warning in a narrow band between that edge and the advisory region... hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 5, 2017 Author Share Posted February 5, 2017 14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Caveat: excluding actual Logan Airport over far eastern Mass ... It looks like the advisory should go right to the coast. But I'd definitely consider a warning for midway between the Pike an Rt2 and points N. Could even be nearing ice-storm warning in a narrow band between that edge and the advisory region... hmm I know there are signs of warning snows but this season seems to want to temper those in reality. The ice and sleet could be an issue though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 It wouldn't shock me if far NE MA and along rt 2 grabbed a quick 5-6" easily. It seems like it will thump good for a time. That's a good cold dome with strong WAA riding up and over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It wouldn't shock me if far NE MA and along rt 2 grabbed a quick 5-6" easily. It seems like it will thump good for a time. That's a good cold dome with strong WAA riding up and over it. Still got some time to trend that better too...of course it could go the other way, but we've been weakening that upper air support out in the Midwest and increasing it on the southeast side so maybe we'll see a little more snow on subsequent runs. I'd like the euro to come back though...I mentioned earlier that it was now the least snowy model...though it did have a lot of ZR for ORH county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Still got some time to trend that better too...of course it could go the other way, but we've been weakening that upper air support out in the Midwest and increasing it on the southeast side so maybe we'll see a little more snow on subsequent runs. I'd like the euro to come back though...I mentioned earlier that it was now the least snowy model...though it did have a lot of ZR for ORH county. I agree. Would be nice to have the euro on board...we'll see what 12z does. I wish this airmass would embed itself just a little deeper. It would be a nice 12/16/07 look. But hopefully we can grab 1-3 near Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Euro already colder in Quebec through hr 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Euro still basically has zero snow south of NH/MA border. Plenty of ZR tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro still basically has zero snow south of NH/MA border. Plenty of ZR tho. How far south does the ZR go? CT/RI line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Euro still blasting the warm front into CNE Wed too. Weird seeing the GFS holding CAD longer than the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 5, 2017 Author Share Posted February 5, 2017 This is disturbing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Ha ha, nice run - kinda funny actually... Went back to 10 years ago and the Dr. No days - What typically happens with the grinchy Euro back then was just exactly what took place here. All other guidance comes out inches in time before the Euro and lends (veraciously too..) to solutions that people can at least capture a moral victory from, if not more ... then the Euro comes out and strategically and surgically attacks precisely each elemental solution that captured said moral victory. It's almost like the countermanding Scott-model; comes swooping in once a thread's meme looks optimistic to remind us all why we're in still in hell - haha, j/k Scott - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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