HoarfrostHubb Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Model consensus is getting a little closer to a solution that offers a chance of a net gain A couple of inches of snow and sleet followed by possible icing then rain. How far does the tucky tuck get? Probably a forgettable event for most but hopefully it can usher in a follow up that is better. As of now, NWS forecasting up to 4" of snow and sleet in the higher terrain of northern Massachusetts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 5, 2017 Author Share Posted February 5, 2017 BOX forecast as of Sunday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 good luck up north. I'll enjoy the free car wash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Ironically, the euro is now the least snowiest of any model after being the snowiest a couple days ago. But all guidance now has major CAD for most of the storm so I think the period of time where temps are significantly above freezing is becoming pretty limited over the interior and esp N of pike. GFS is now a pretty good hit of snow before it flips to icing. Eastern areas look like they are going to see a cold tuck too in this one. There is still enough time left in this one to see some more changes that could make this a pretty good winter storm...or it could tick back the other way and just be a few hours of winter before sipping pina coladas in the warm sector for 10 hours...but the latter scenario seems to be fading on recent guidance, and Synoptically this would be the way to think. The deep layer dynamic support for a wound up primary has weakened considerably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ironically, the euro is now the least snowiest of any model after being the snowiest a couple days ago. But all guidance now has major CAD for most of the storm so I think the period of time where temps are significantly above freezing is becoming pretty limited over the interior and esp N of pike. GFS is now a pretty good hit of snow before it flips to icing. Eastern areas look like they are going to see a cold tuck too in this one. There is still enough time left in this one to see some more changes that could make this a pretty good winter storm...or it could tick back the other way and just be a few hours of winter before sipping pina coladas in the warm sector for 10 hours...but the latter scenario seems to be fading on recent guidance, and Synoptically this would be the way to think. The deep layer dynamic support for a wound up primary has weakened considerably. Is this for the typical pike on north or theres a chance for a more wintery deal into CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Is it safe to say that there will be no ice in Boston? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, moneypitmike said: Is it safe to say that there will be no ice in Boston? Not at all. They might get a cold tuck. They won't get as much ice as further west but they could easily see a 38F rain turn to 29F ZR in the cold tuck and everything freezes solid for a few hours. Def gonna have to watch it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Heh...one of those CAD inversions on steroids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 5, 2017 Author Share Posted February 5, 2017 Brian, where is that sounding for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Not at all. They might get a cold tuck. They won't get as much ice as further west but they could easily see a 38F rain turn to 29F ZR in the cold tuck and everything freezes solid for a few hours. Def gonna have to watch it. Thanks--I was thinking the cold tuck would have been off-set by the harbor. I'll be staying in town Tuesday night so I'll miss anything of note that comes to the Pit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Brian, where is that sounding for? Here The GFS is mostly snow here. That's after most of the QPF has fallen and we get into some light sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 5, 2017 Author Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Here The GFS is mostly snow here. That's after most of the QPF has fallen and we get into some light sleet. Grey mentions 6" possible for you folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 5, 2017 Author Share Posted February 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Thanks--I was thinking the cold tuck would have been off-set by the harbor. I'll be staying in town Tuesday night so I'll miss anything of note that comes to the Pit. I would think just west of Boston the threat of ice really increases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 That's strange for the gfs to pick up those tucks, would expect nam of all models to show that. Hopefully the gfs is correct. Would be nice to grab a few inches and then maybe have some tucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 28 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Is this for the typical pike on north or theres a chance for a more wintery deal into CT? This is almost all rain south of I-90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: This is almost all rain south of I-90. No it isn't...you could see a lot of mixed precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: This is almost all rain south of I-90. Who are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, dendrite said: Who are you? One of his multiple personalities. This is reverse psychology Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: No it isn't...you could see a lot of mixed precip. I'm not taking the GFS idea for anything. That's like swallowing the barrel of a 45. Not setting myself up for that disappointment only to have it be rain and 53 on Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Who are you? Have you ever known me to take the GFS over the Euro and consensus? Ever? When the Gfs is alone in showing cold solution.. proceed with ultra caution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I'm not taking the GFS idea for anything. That's like swallowing the barrel of a 45. Not setting myself up for that disappointment only to have it be rain and 53 on Wed The euro looked icy there too. We probably will torch for a time no matter the solution with near and post fropa temp spike. It's inevitable unless you are deep interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I'm not taking the GFS idea for anything. That's like swallowing the barrel of a 45. Not setting myself up for that disappointment only to have it be rain and 53 on Wed Have you looked at any model? Nammy gives you some frozen too. You may push 50F on Wed regardless after the fropa...especially with some sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, dendrite said: Have you looked at any model? Nammy gives you some frozen too. You may push 50F on Wed regardless after the fropa...especially with some sun. Thread title even agrees. North of Pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Thread title even agrees. North of Pike Well duh, they'll have more wintry weather. But you saying sunshine and parakeets is silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 The ones that checked out are now slowly going to want to check back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well duh, they'll have more wintry weather. But you saying sunshine and parakeets is silly. He wants you to tell him he is getting an ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Ray may want to check back in. He should get anomalously closer to having a less anomalous snow year and closer to being with the anomalous SE MA crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, dryslot said: He wants you to tell him he is getting an ice storm. I would be very happy telling him he's getting a 32.1F rainstorm. But he's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well duh, they'll have more wintry weather. But you saying sunshine and parakeets is silly. I'm just saying no snow . Little sleet to zr brief to rain all within 2-3 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 20 minutes ago, dendrite said: Who are you? It's after February 1, so Kevin's dreams have shifted to being about reporting BDL temps and rolls of toilet paper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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