40/70 Benchmark Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 I think I am going to start writing the foundational stuff tonight....the lead in, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 Looks like Epstein is going meh? Seems reasonable. http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2017/11/02/new-england-probably-won-get-blockbuster-snowfall-this-winter/SpVbWZ3FmFpwf0IqfFjgJK/story.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 7 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said: Looks like Epstein is going meh? Seems reasonable. http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2017/11/02/new-england-probably-won-get-blockbuster-snowfall-this-winter/SpVbWZ3FmFpwf0IqfFjgJK/story.html While the forecast result is entirely plausible, its content adds about as much value as the epilogue to the Dawn Awakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Hopefully it verifies. If people haven't checked it out, griteater posted a very well written discussion/outlook on the main forum: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50432-griteaters-winter-outlook-17-18/ Seconded griteater's discussion. Always enjoyed his posts in the SE forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 I've seen other ideas similar to Griteater's idea. Some do have the warm December with the cool-down after. I know it may make some uncomfortable, but seems to have some merit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 It will make the ones looking for a front loaded winter a little on edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I've seen other ideas similar to Griteater's idea. Some do have the warm December with the cool-down after. I know it may make some uncomfortable, but seems to have some merit. Not too worried. East-based la nina December composite: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 Good shot of a Pamela Anderson December. Filtered for QBO: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 I'm thinking we have ourselves a merry little December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 Actually, I haven't pruned that east-based la nina list yet....1970-71 should be taken out too... strong.....1978-79 was't even a la nina. Two best matches for December given ENSO strength, structure and QBO are 1956 and 2005...still two good Decembers: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 Ray,fire those up from a N hemi point of view. The models are trying to show a Scandinavian ridge which sometimes seems to be a precursor to perhaps a -NAO. Ar at least maybe an east based one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Ray,fire those up from a N hemi point of view. The models are trying to show a Scandinavian ridge which sometimes seems to be a precursor to perhaps a -NAO. Ar at least maybe an east based one. Here it is: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 There is where my $ is for December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 October SLP in the north pac wasn't favorable for -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 4 hours ago, OSUmetstud said: October SLP in the north pac wasn't favorable for -NAO. Pretty vague post. Care to elaborate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Pretty vague post. Care to elaborate? Well it's one of those leading indicators. High October SLP in the region west of California and south of Alaska correlates significantly with a positive January NAO. I feel like in general there's a lot of mixed signals for the winter NAO. You got good impressive snow cover, low sea ice, and the Kara sea ridging there too, all good signs for a negative NAO. Then on the other hand, the october SAI was low and the PV itself remains pretty strong and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Well it's one of those leading indicators. High October SLP in the region west of California and south of Alaska correlates significantly with a positive January NAO. I feel like in general there's a lot of mixed signals for the winter NAO. You got good impressive snow cover, low sea ice, and the Kara sea ridging there too, all good signs for a negative NAO. Then on the other hand, the october SAI was low and the PV itself remains pretty strong and cold. That makes sense becuase I'm going for a mild January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 Bascially a Nino pattern helps correlate to a -NAO. That's kind of what the SLP indicator shows more or less. Nick, how's St John during blocking episodes? I have to imagine even you guys do well with those with the PV lobe nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That makes sense becuase I'm going for a mild January. I’m not sure if I want to go mild January or February. Seeing that now makes me think January will be mild, but still not sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 My own thoughts here, but I am noticing what seems to be strong ULL ridging in nrn Siberia, leading to a strong area of HP in Siberia. I have seen work done on Siberian Highs in November and -AO tendencies. I have to think that is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 Ray's December composite def doesn't look like a typical Niña with the solidly positive PNA....low heights south of Aleutians and higher heights over BC. We did see that type of pattern in some previous weak ninas though like December '05, Dec '00, and Dec '85. The 1985 analog has been good in November so far too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Bascially a Nino pattern helps correlate to a -NAO. That's kind of what the SLP indicator shows more or less. Nick, how's St John during blocking episodes? I have to imagine even you guys do well with those with the PV lobe nearby. Temperatures are colder with a positive NAO. But nao overall doesn't really matter too much to our snowfall. I have to imagine either too positive or too negative are bad. Our large snowstorms do still like a bit of a weak -0.5 to -1 block over greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 Ray's December composite def doesn't look like a typical Niña with the solidly positive PNA....low heights south of Aleutians and higher heights over BC. We did see that type of pattern in some previous weak ninas though like December '05, Dec '00, and Dec '85. The 1985 analog has been good in November so far too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: My own thoughts here, but I am noticing what seems to be strong ULL ridging in nrn Siberia, leading to a strong area of HP in Siberia. I have seen work done on Siberian Highs in November and -AO tendencies. I have to think that is a good sign. Should be blocking early and late....neg. aggregate NAO/AO for season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Should be blocking early and late....neg. aggregate NAO/AO for season. Hopefully we can caplitize on it and not DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 I just completed my ideas for my St. John's city forecast. I'm using 4 lead indicators from the late summer-fall, the PDO, the northern oscillation index, the QBO, and Nino 1+2 SST anomaly. Those are the only larger type indices in the summer-fall that have borderline statistical significance (r=0.2 to 0.25) with winter weather here. The best 10 matches on all 4 values of those variables were 1956-1957, 1958-1959, 1960-1961, 1968-1969, 1974-1975, 1977-1978, 1984-1985, 1986-1987, 1989-1990, and 2000-2001. Mean snowfall was 428.5 cm here (+93.5 cm above normal) with a standard deviation of 123.3 cm 7 of 10 were above normal. While it might translate for other areas, this was specifically done only using forecast parameters that were useful to the weather here and no other leading indicators. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 That's interesting how we have such a huge black hole south of Greenland, yet the heights in the Davis Straits do not have nearly the magnitude in the opposite direction. I wonder if the vortex was a stable feature, but the blocking was either transient..or perhaps located in slightly different areas from month to month...thus giving that appearance of weak + anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 On 10/30/2017 at 10:24 PM, ORH_wxman said: Right...the geography/topography of New England is unique in multiple ways that can often "favor" colder outcomes within an overall warmer regime. The gulf stream bends off to the south of us...in addition to the fact that we are just a big land mass sticking out to the east into the Atlantic ocean like a big chin. Both of these features are hugely favorable for a good baroclinic zone just to our south. Add in the 3rd really important feature...topography. We lie mostly to the east of the Appalachian mountains....so the cold air damming is very strong...and it tends to be enhanced up at our latitude due to the penchant for high pressure to form in Quebec due to the PJ interacting with the natural train car pile-ups that occur in the North Atlantic. Mix that in with the baroclinic zone to our south and you have a lot of synoptically "ugly" storms at 20,000 feet start to look a lot prettier at 5,000 feet and below. It's funny how badly we scoff at certain aspects of our lack of winter. As if there are so may other great places for big snowstorms and retaining snow pack. But when you start looking at the rest of the CONUS, you realize how ugly it is everywhere else to get consistent double digit synoptic snowfalls and also keep their snow around. The snow retention is terrible until either get way north like the Arrowhead of Minnesota and UP of Michigan and N Wisconsin...or up into major mountain towns out west. There's some lake effect belts a bit further south that also do well, but they are definitely more localized. The former don't provide much in the way of big synoptic snowfalls...you pretty much just have to go into the mountains out west to get better on a consistent basis. I suppose the south coast brethren and places like the Cape/adjacent areas have some room to complain a lot more than we do. But interesting how sometimes we obsess over the KU textbook patterns for mid-atlantic snow even here...I will sometimes point that out, but despite that, I will still fall into that tunnel vision at times. Fantastic post Will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 I wonder why the SO MEI value isn't updating....we're a week into the new month- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I wonder why the SO MEI value isn't updating....we're a week into the new month- mei should update on Nov. 10th... https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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