Countdown to Winter 2017-2018 Thread

[mitchnick]

25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I couldn't agree with him more....about his preliminary thoughts on the impending winter, as well as the dearth of value in early seasonal outlooks.

Not sure I buy Dec being the warmest month relative to average, though.

Canadian and CFS2 seem to be leaning that way fwiw. Contrary to typical Nina climate, but this isn't even a Nina yet and I've been posting that I'm not sure it will ever officially get to 5 tri-monthly values. That's important in my mind because even if it does, it's weak and will not rule the roost for the winter opening opportunities for other conditions to overwhelm. But who really knows at this point. In 2 months, PAC and Arctic could look completely different, for better or worse.

[Typhoon Tip]

I don't understand this excerpt: 

"..Strongly POSITIVE QBO values correlate to Non Blocking weather patterns in the Jet stream. And strongly Negative QBO values in the cold season Months = +AO and +NAO patterns...."

So in other words, both support non-blocking jet streams?  

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't understand this excerpt: 

"..Strongly POSITIVE QBO values correlate to Non Blocking weather patterns in the Jet stream. And strongly Negative QBO values in the cold season Months = +AO and +NAO patterns...."

So in other words, both support non-blocking jet streams?  

Tip, there is some conflicting findings here. DT is touting a -QBO/Niña as portending a cold and snowy winter....Anthony Masiello (HM) came up with just the opposite conclusion, here is his article from a few years ago on the effects of a negative or positive QBO during a La Niña Winter: http://ionlyusethegfs.blogspot.com/2012/04/qbo-aleutian-high-relationship.html?m=1

[weathafella]

27 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Tip, there is some conflicting findings here. DT is touting a -QBO/Niña as portending a cold and snowy winter....Anthony Masiello (HM) came up with just the opposite conclusion, here is his article from a few years ago on the effects of a negative or positive QBO during a La Niña Winter: http://ionlyusethegfs.blogspot.com/2012/04/qbo-aleutian-high-relationship.html?m=1

Some good snow winters here on both subsets.

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Some good snow winters here on both subsets.

Forecasting snow is hard in New England. A lot of datasets tend to have "some great winters...and some bad ones" for our snow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't understand this excerpt: 

"..Strongly POSITIVE QBO values correlate to Non Blocking weather patterns in the Jet stream. And strongly Negative QBO values in the cold season Months = +AO and +NAO patterns...."

So in other words, both support non-blocking jet streams?  

I took it to mean that an intense QBO either way is tougher for blocking. 

Anyway,  -QBO is better for blocking in general...no arguing that.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I took it to mean that an intense QBO either way is tougher for blocking. 

Anyway,  -QBO is better for blocking in general...no arguing that.

Yea. I read it over and over again last night and thats how I finally understood it. Thought it was a typo at first. 

[uncle W]

the strong -QBO Autumns that remained strongly negative thru the winter lead to some cold winters...1962-63, 1981-82 are two examples of none el nino years...there were more good winters in the el nino years...2011-12 and 1974-75 were not great at all...mixed results for the -QBO for winters...

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Mason Dixon said:

This is third forum thread you have posted this in. Nobody cares what you say or think. 

So +QBO and -QBO favor + polar fields according to him.

Right-

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. I read it over and over again last night and thats how I finally understood it. Thought it was a typo at first. 

Where as I glanced at it ha ha Ha. Yeah that interpretation also occurred to me but wasn't sureYeah that interpretation also occurred to me but wasn't sure

[Typhoon Tip]

6 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Forecasting snow is hard in New England. A lot of datasets tend to have "some great winters...and some bad ones" for our snow.

Our lat/Lon being essentially on the mean polar boundary is also thusly favorably situated. We can get chancy run ins with renegade storms that make or a break a season ... sort of belies the truth if a grind. 

Kind of related to  why I don't really freak out over a +1, 2 or 3 winter because you're not going to get February 2015 puff bombs all the time. That was just something fluky and weird. i just want it cold in the 850 to 700 interval

[ORH_wxman]

31 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Our lat/Lon being essentially on the mean polar boundary is also thusly favorably situated. We can get chancy run ins with renegade storms that make or a break a season ... sort of belies the truth if a grind. 

Kind of related to  why I don't really freak out over a +1, 2 or 3 winter because you're not going to get February 2015 puff bombs all the time. That was just something fluky and weird. i just want it cold in the 850 to 700 interval

Right...the geography/topography of New England is unique in multiple ways that can often "favor" colder outcomes within an overall warmer regime. The gulf stream bends off to the south of us...in addition to the fact that we are just a big land mass sticking out to the east into the Atlantic ocean like a big chin. Both of these features are hugely favorable for a good baroclinic zone just to our south. Add in the 3rd really important feature...topography. We lie mostly to the east of the Appalachian mountains....so the cold air damming is very strong...and it tends to be enhanced up at our latitude due to the penchant for high pressure to form in Quebec due to the PJ interacting with the natural train car pile-ups that occur in the North Atlantic. Mix that in with the baroclinic zone to our south and you have a lot of synoptically "ugly" storms at 20,000 feet start to look a lot prettier at 5,000 feet and below.

 

It's funny how badly we scoff at certain aspects of our lack of winter. As if there are so may other great places for big snowstorms and retaining snow pack. But when you start looking at the rest of the CONUS, you realize how ugly it is everywhere else to get consistent double digit synoptic snowfalls and also keep their snow around. The snow retention is terrible until either get way north like the Arrowhead of Minnesota and UP of Michigan and N Wisconsin...or up into major mountain towns out west. There's some lake effect belts a bit further south that also do well, but they are definitely more localized. The former don't provide much in the way of big synoptic snowfalls...you pretty much just have to go into the mountains out west to get better on a consistent basis.

 

I suppose the south coast brethren and places like the Cape/adjacent areas have some room to complain a lot more than we do. But interesting how sometimes we obsess over the KU textbook patterns for mid-atlantic snow even here...I will sometimes point that out, but despite that, I will still fall into that tunnel vision at times.

[Typhoon Tip]

12 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Right...the geography/topography of New England is unique in multiple ways that can often "favor" colder outcomes within an overall warmer regime. The gulf stream bends off to the south of us...in addition to the fact that we are just a big land mass sticking out to the east into the Atlantic ocean like a big chin. Both of these features are hugely favorable for a good baroclinic zone just to our south. Add in the 3rd really important feature...topography. We lie mostly to the east of the Appalachian mountains....so the cold air damming is very strong...and it tends to be enhanced up at our latitude due to the penchant for high pressure to form in Quebec due to the PJ interacting with the natural train car pile-ups that occur in the North Atlantic. Mix that in with the baroclinic zone to our south and you have a lot of synoptically "ugly" storms at 20,000 feet start to look a lot prettier at 5,000 feet and below.

 

It's funny how badly we scoff at certain aspects of our lack of winter. As if there are so may other great places for big snowstorms and retaining snow pack. But when you start looking at the rest of the CONUS, you realize how ugly it is everywhere else to get consistent double digit synoptic snowfalls and also keep their snow around. The snow retention is terrible until either get way north like the Arrowhead of Minnesota and UP of Michigan and N Wisconsin...or up into major mountain towns out west. There's some lake effect belts a bit further south that also do well, but they are definitely more localized. The former don't provide much in the way of big synoptic snowfalls...you pretty much just have to go into the mountains out west to get better on a consistent basis.

 

I suppose the south coast brethren and places like the Cape/adjacent areas have some room to complain a lot more than we do. But interesting how sometimes we obsess over the KU textbook patterns for mid-atlantic snow even here...I will sometimes point that out, but despite that, I will still fall into that tunnel vision at times.

So I guess this sort of thing can come down to thresholds.

Our 'tolerances' for variation have bigger windows than say, DCA - duh.  Which is to say .. for them, +3 and their cooked.  For a place that bottoms out in the upper 30s as the seasonal (low) max, +3 means they prooobably got some pretty damn mild days and probably warm sectors at that if the storm track is active (but -3 with an active storm track is probably buzz-worthy for them)

But we end up 31 or so... give or take.. +3 over climate ...  we probably need +5 along with actually, quantifiable cutter behavior.  I could see us getting three 20" blue bombs and four 3-5"ers ..in an otherwise warm winter pretty easily, and that visualization does not stress to see.

Particularly recently ... if I may add - like, the last 20 years in particular.  Not saying anything about climate signaling or any of that. Keeping that out of it, fact of the matter is, it's not as hard now in the pure numbers to find 6" 10" ... 18" snow events "these days."  Hard to say why that is, but it's fascinating. I remember, clearly, being in awe over a snow forecast that "might" be as much as 8" ... in a Warned storm.  Now?  like ...8?  meh. And those that may in fact be just 22 years of age or whatever, they really can't have an appreciation - I almost don't fault them for it... I mean, in all fairness, there has to be an experiential data set for one to draw from when designing the expectations.  SO, ... those younger cats are pretty certain of their own impression of what winter means.  interesting

 

[ORH_wxman]

28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

So I guess this sort of thing can come down to thresholds.

Our 'tolerances' for variation have bigger windows than say, DCA - duh.  Which is to say .. for them, +3 and their cooked.  For a place that bottoms out in the upper 30s as the seasonal (low) max, +3 means they prooobably got some pretty damn mild days and probably warm sectors at that if the storm track is active (but -3 with an active storm track is probably buzz-worthy for them)

But we end up 31 or so... give or take.. +3 over climate ...  we probably need +5 along with actually, quantifiable cutter behavior.  I could see us getting three 20" blue bombs and four 3-5"ers ..in an otherwise warm winter pretty easily, and that visualization does not stress to see.

Particularly recently ... if I may add - like, the last 20 years in particular.  Not saying anything about climate signaling or any of that. Keeping that out of it, fact of the matter is, it's not as hard now in the pure numbers to find 6" 10" ... 18" snow events "these days."  Hard to say why that is, but it's fascinating. I remember, clearly, being in awe over a snow forecast that "might" be as much as 8" ... in a Warned storm.  Now?  like ...8?  meh. And those that may in fact be just 22 years of age or whatever, they really can't have an appreciation - I almost don't fault them for it... I mean, in all fairness, there has to be an experiential data set for one to draw from when designing the expectations.  SO, ... those younger cats are pretty certain of their own impression of what winter means.  interesting

 

A point that is very good...and we talk about it at times in here. Those of us who are basically in that age 35-50 bracket have vivid memories of one of the worst snowfall stretches on record for New England and it happened when we were young so we 1.) didn't get to experience the seemingly non-stop snow/cold of the 1960s and 2.) We are more impressionable when young, so our expectations got warped from that terrible stretch...and it was especially bad in southern New England in the 1980s/early 1990s. Scott and I often muse about how "huge" a 3-6" or 4-8" snowfall forecast sounded back then. I would go to bed giddy and waiting to wake up at 5am seeing the white fog outside and muffled sound of a car trying to drive down the snow packed road....and as I'm sure you can attest to yourself, so often "something went wrong"....we'd wake up and either hear a car splashing through puddles on the road or you peak out the window and you instantly know that you can see too far and the ground isn't white...the disk of the sun becomes visible an hour or two later as it rises and your heart would sink knowing that the storm probably missed. I guess being battle scarred like that does make one appreciate the glut of 18"+ storms since the mid 1990s.

And yeah, we're going to have another horrible stretch at some point...whether it's from climate change decades down the road, or more likely, just random variance in the nearer term. Or even some combo of the two. But it's going to happen, and we will look back on this period of excessive snowfall in even more awe.

[gravitylover]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

A point that is very good...and we talk about it at times in here. Those of us who are basically in that age 35-50 bracket have vivid memories of one of the worst snowfall stretches on record for New England and it happened when we were young so we 1.) didn't get to experience the seemingly non-stop snow/cold of the 1960s and 2.) We are more impressionable when young, so our expectations got warped from that terrible stretch...and it was especially bad in southern New England in the 1980s/early 1990s. Scott and I often muse about how "huge" a 3-6" or 4-8" snowfall forecast sounded back then. I would go to bed giddy and waiting to wake up at 5am seeing the white fog outside and muffled sound of a car trying to drive down the snow packed road....and as I'm sure you can attest to yourself, so often "something went wrong"....we'd wake up and either hear a car splashing through puddles on the road or you peak out the window and you instantly know that you can see too far and the ground isn't white...the disk of the sun becomes visible an hour or two later as it rises and your heart would sink knowing that the storm probably missed. I guess being battle scarred like that does make one appreciate the glut of 18"+ storms since the mid 1990s.

And yeah, we're going to have another horrible stretch at some point...whether it's from climate change decades down the road, or more likely, just random variance in the nearer term. Or even some combo of the two. But it's going to happen, and we will look back on this period of excessive snowfall in even more awe.

Boy can I relate to that. Growing up on LI in the 70's there were so many 'rain changing to mix then snow N&W' forecasts on tv that didn't even work out for them 'up north' folks. Watching ski areas close up and go out of business all over the northeast because they just couldn't generate the cash to put in snowmaking was painful. Other than Jan/Feb '77 there were so few snowstorms of consequence when I was a kid, 4" was a big deal! 

[SnowHole413]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

A point that is very good...and we talk about it at times in here. Those of us who are basically in that age 35-50 bracket have vivid memories of one of the worst snowfall stretches on record for New England and it happened when we were young so we 1.) didn't get to experience the seemingly non-stop snow/cold of the 1960s and 2.) We are more impressionable when young, so our expectations got warped from that terrible stretch...and it was especially bad in southern New England in the 1980s/early 1990s. Scott and I often muse about how "huge" a 3-6" or 4-8" snowfall forecast sounded back then. I would go to bed giddy and waiting to wake up at 5am seeing the white fog outside and muffled sound of a car trying to drive down the snow packed road....and as I'm sure you can attest to yourself, so often "something went wrong"....we'd wake up and either hear a car splashing through puddles on the road or you peak out the window and you instantly know that you can see too far and the ground isn't white...the disk of the sun becomes visible an hour or two later as it rises and your heart would sink knowing that the storm probably missed. I guess being battle scarred like that does make one appreciate the glut of 18"+ storms since the mid 1990s.

And yeah, we're going to have another horrible stretch at some point...whether it's from climate change decades down the road, or more likely, just random variance in the nearer term. Or even some combo of the two. But it's going to happen, and we will look back on this period of excessive snowfall in even more awe.

I don’t know I’m 22 and I only remember two 18inch+ storms my whole life, Nemo being most memorable. As a kid 02-03 was the first memorable winter for me, then 04-05 was good as well. I also feel like out my way since the 2010-2011 winter, we have not gotten those huge snow storms like you out east have gotten. I remember 11-12 wishing for some snow so I could finally try out the snowmobile I bought at the end of the 10-11 winter lol. 15-16 was a terrible winter out her as well so I definitely appreciate the small 3-4inch storms.

[Typhoon Tip]

27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

A point that is very good...and we talk about it at times in here. Those of us who are basically in that age 35-50 bracket have vivid memories of one of the worst snowfall stretches on record for New England and it happened when we were young so we 1.) didn't get to experience the seemingly non-stop snow/cold of the 1960s and 2.) We are more impressionable when young, so our expectations got warped from that terrible stretch...and it was especially bad in southern New England in the 1980s/early 1990s. Scott and I often muse about how "huge" a 3-6" or 4-8" snowfall forecast sounded back then. I would go to bed giddy and waiting to wake up at 5am seeing the white fog outside and muffled sound of a car trying to drive down the snow packed road....and as I'm sure you can attest to yourself, so often "something went wrong"....we'd wake up and either hear a car splashing through puddles on the road or you peak out the window and you instantly know that you can see too far and the ground isn't white...the disk of the sun becomes visible an hour or two later as it rises and your heart would sink knowing that the storm probably missed. I guess being battle scarred like that does make one appreciate the glut of 18"+ storms since the mid 1990s.

And yeah, we're going to have another horrible stretch at some point...whether it's from climate change decades down the road, or more likely, just random variance in the nearer term. Or even some combo of the two. But it's going to happen, and we will look back on this period of excessive snowfall in even more awe.

Thing is, it wasn't lack of cold air, either. I remember walking to school .. -3 F or some inhuman schit, .. a mere two days after having been royally porked by a miss - one that was more likely than not, heavily touted as the biggest thing since 1978.  Just like you mentioned... as an adult, you hear a phrase like that, nothing happens, you give 'em one more guess - if it fails, ya don't listen anymore.  But between 8 and 22 years of age, your actual own mind alarm clocks its self for that 4:34 am check to make sure that in fact the redux is underway. Which of course ... it never was. 

There's an element of chance in every scenario, which in a way ... summation creates the 'chanciness' of a season.  But, it was really more like a dearth in opportunities relentlessly abusing -- defying odds to the extent that the defiance became the new norm.  Stockholm Syndrome -haha. And when an opportunity finally came, it was either warm up and rain for 4 to 6 hours followed by bone chilling cold, or, a cold throughout but the storm just blithely misses south in spite of Walter Drag's ticker messages scrollin' doom on the bottom of of the television for three days. 

Anyway, I actually don't recall winters being brutally warm through that era - could be wrong.  But by and large, my memories are marled in a dirty dice rolls and lacking much of anything.  Such that as you say, when a half foot knocked on the door it was pretty spectacular.  

[Typhoon Tip]

14 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said:

I don’t know I’m 22 and I only remember two 18inch+ storms my whole life, Nemo being most memorable. As a kid 02-03 was the first memorable winter for me, then 04-05 was good as well. I also feel like out my way since the 2010-2011 winter, we have not gotten those huge snow storms like you out east have gotten. I remember 11-12 wishing for some snow so I could finally try out the snowmobile I bought at the end of the 10-11 winter lol. 15-16 was a terrible winter out her as well so I definitely appreciate the small 3-4inch storms.

... three quick things to keep in mind, which I'm sure you are already aware but just for people:

1   this is anecdotally two dudes nearing or in middle age, that have a different set of experiences behind the motivations for their word smithing. 

2   we aren't really talking about just 18" - that's upper tier in any scope, of course. and likewise, no one sane is going to argue that is common. However, there are more 12"+ storms in the last 20 years, then prior.  that can actually be looked up - I'm pretty sure we have on this social media in the past? 

3   it's simply a matter of frequency in general.  the frequency is up and the vector is pointed at the whiter end of the spectrum.  again, ...don't care to argue specific numbers. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

John hit the nail on the head. Its all about the mid levels...people can cry about the surface all they want, but if its -3C at H925, that will get advected downward with heavy fall rates.

Last April 1 is a good example of having the low levels being mistaken as the culprit, when it was really because we couldn't get the fall rates heavy enough to advect the mid levels down until they had already warmed.

[ORH_wxman]

39 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Thing is, it wasn't lack of cold air, either. I remember walking to school .. -3 F or some inhuman schit, .. a mere two days after having been royally porked by a miss - one that was more likely than not, heavily touted as the biggest thing since 1978.  Just like you mentioned... as an adult, you hear a phrase like that, nothing happens, you give 'em one more guess - if it fails, ya don't listen anymore.  But between 8 and 22 years of age, your actual own mind alarm clocks its self for that 4:34 am check to make sure that in fact the redux is underway. Which of course ... it never was. 

There's an element of chance in every scenario, which in a way ... summation creates the 'chanciness' of a season.  But, it was really more like a dearth in opportunities relentlessly abusing -- defying odds to the extent that the defiance became the new norm.  Stockholm Syndrome -haha. And when an opportunity finally came, it was either warm up and rain for 4 to 6 hours followed by bone chilling cold, or, a cold throughout but the storm just blithely misses south in spite of Walter Drag's ticker messages scrollin' doom on the bottom of of the television for three days. 

Anyway, I actually don't recall winters being brutally warm through that era - could be wrong.  But by and large, my memories are marled in a dirty dice rolls and lacking much of anything.  Such that as you say, when a half foot knocked on the door it was pretty spectacular.  

Your memory is correct....those 1980s winters weren't warm. The "cutter followed by frigid cold" was definitely a mind-numbingly awful soundtrack played on repeat seemingly for 5 winters straight (we actually did have a good winter or two thrown into the mix, but you get the point).

The early 1990s winters though were def warmer...like 1990-1991...that one sucked. 1991-1992? Yep...they did have their cold shots, but I recall a lot of days where we could throw off our jacket outside. The numbers agree..they were mild. Not 2001-2002 or 2011-2012 mild, but def not the normal to below normal snowless dystopia that the 1980s brought upon us.

 

51 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said:

I don’t know I’m 22 and I only remember two 18inch+ storms my whole life, Nemo being most memorable. As a kid 02-03 was the first memorable winter for me, then 04-05 was good as well. I also feel like out my way since the 2010-2011 winter, we have not gotten those huge snow storms like you out east have gotten. I remember 11-12 wishing for some snow so I could finally try out the snowmobile I bought at the end of the 10-11 winter lol. 15-16 was a terrible winter out her as well so I definitely appreciate the small 3-4inch storms.

Tip already answered it, but yeah...the 18"+ number was just sort of hyperbole thrown out there. It's actually true for my home residence all those years....in ORH...but other areas may have not exactly gotten the same...it could have been a bunch of 15-16" snowstorms instead when I was getting 18-20"...your location says Hadley, MA so you are def in a synoptic snowfall minimum due to the CT River Valley location you are at...prob really only Feb 5, 2001 and Jan 12, 2011 I would be confident in saying you exceeded 18" in your lifetime...you prob got close in Feb 2013, but fell a little short.

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

John hit the nail on the head. Its all about the mid levels...people can cry about the surface all they want, but if its -3C at H925, that will get advected downward with heavy fall rates.

Last April 1 is a good example of having the low levels being mistaken as the culprit, when it was really because we couldn't get the fall rates heavy enough to advect the mid levels down until they had already warmed.

I'm just going to be a nerd and nitpick a little here and say "latently cool" the freezing level downward due to melting rather than "advect".

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm just going to be a nerd and nitpick a little here and say "latently cool" the freezing level downward due to melting rather than "advect".

Yes. I mispoke.

Often times before I enter a blog post, I refer to old posts to hone my understanding...and I'm rusty since we haven't began yet.

Once you said that, I remembred making that post...latent cooling from melting.

[Juliancolton]

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

Boy can I relate to that. Growing up on LI in the 70's there were so many 'rain changing to mix then snow N&W' forecasts on tv that didn't even work out for them 'up north' folks. Watching ski areas close up and go out of business all over the northeast because they just couldn't generate the cash to put in snowmaking was painful. Other than Jan/Feb '77 there were so few snowstorms of consequence when I was a kid, 4" was a big deal! 

You know by now that I'm about equally enthusiastic about a 5-minute blinding squall and a 24" crush job. Even in the worst winters you still get some fun moments, and honestly I think it all looks the same after about 14" anyway, so I don't get crazy about long stretches between big ticket events.

[Juliancolton]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm just going to be a nerd and nitpick a little here and say "latently cool" the freezing level downward due to melting rather than "advect".

Can you ever advect something vertically or is that term strictly for horizontal transport?

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Can you ever advect something vertically or is that term strictly for horizontal transport?

The term is technically just for horizontal transport...convection is typically the term used for vertical transport. But I feel like there's a lot of gray area when discussing the terms on a practical level...like when we get things like WAA isentropic upglide or even terrain upslope, we don't talk about the vertical transfer of air as convection in those instances.

[Typhoon Tip]

Haha...oh man, if we really want to coke-bottle the glasses and wear a kick-my-butt back sign... 

"conduction" is technically an aspect dealing in the vertical, too. 

[gravitylover]

3 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

You know by now that I'm about equally enthusiastic about a 5-minute blinding squall and a 24" crush job. Even in the worst winters you still get some fun moments, and honestly I think it all looks the same after about 14" anyway, so I don't get crazy about long stretches between big ticket events.

Yup and I mostly agree but we went for years at a time with nothing of significance. 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

It looks like the EURO produces our first widespread snow of the season on November 10th, while GFS waits for the first flakes on November 16th.  Watch this coastal storm on the 10th period, look like a strong trough enters the picture and produces a coastal snow storm.

[Hitman]

http://www.hudsonvalleyweather.com/2017-2018-hvw-winter-outlook/

[ORH_wxman]

27 minutes ago, Hitman said:

http://www.hudsonvalleyweather.com/2017-2018-hvw-winter-outlook/

Hopefully it verifies.

If people haven't checked it out, griteater posted a very well written discussion/outlook on the main forum:

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50432-griteaters-winter-outlook-17-18/