CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 It could be due to oceanic wave action too. The cold waters have always been deep. Just need some easterlies to stir that up. The easterlies have weakened which may be why near srfc has warmed a bit, but the euro progs them to increase in early November. That cold water tells me Nina still will flex. I'm just glad it's more east based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 5 hours ago, StormchaserChuck said: I have studied subsurface ENSO temperatures, creating a dataset and comparing in a correlation coefficient with surface ENSO SST. What I found was strong in the direction of subsurface being more important than surface. - individually when there was a disconnect, the subsurface won out pretty much every time (pattern connections, SLP etc). The theory now is when the subsurface does not win out as much as usual, is it because energy potential is dispersing at the surface?, in which case, does it favor blocking? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 there's papers out there about the sea surface heights ... the gist being that they are not the same in warm vs cool regions, and as those blob around the basin that has mechanical effect on the atmosphere above those regions. Obviously warm water dumps latent heat and down wind some physical distance there's an atmospheric response to that too ... but that's different. I can't imagine the effect is larger or more dominate when scaling the equation for order factors and so forth, but it is what it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 Looks like a major volcanic eruption for Mount Agung coming up: http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/870466/Bali-volcano-eruption-latest-news-Mount-Agung-erupting-update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: Looks like a major volcanic eruption for Mount Agung coming up: http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/870466/Bali-volcano-eruption-latest-news-Mount-Agung-erupting-update You must be foaming at the mouth to report how quickly that will manifest into a positive AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: Looks like a major volcanic eruption for Mount Agung coming up: http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/870466/Bali-volcano-eruption-latest-news-Mount-Agung-erupting-update It's not as easy as that. Analysis of various data points are needed in order to ascertain eruption likelihood, beyond seismicity (off-gassing, internal CO2/SO2 profile, inflation). The earthquake itself doesn't necessarily implicate an enhanced probability of eruption. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 Hopefully the CFS is wrong with a disgusting week 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Hopefully the CFS is wrong with a disgusting week 4. The thanksgiving grinch that saved Christmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: The thanksgiving grinch that saved Christmas? Pattern change begins 12/10...complete by 12/25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Pattern change begins 12/10...complete by 12/25. We can only hope so. The 10-15 day Euro Ensemble apparently doesn't look good with all the real cold stuff out West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 I will be more than happy with drinking cosmos in a Speedo on Thanksgiving if that means we avoid the Grinch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 Just now, leo2000 said: We can only hope so. The 10-15 day Euro Ensemble apparently doesn't look good with all the real cold stuff out West. For the millionth time, you need to look at the big picture. As long as the Pacific is good, eventually climo dictates the cold will ooze east. It's not going to happen anytime soon, you'll have to deal. Typical Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: For the millionth time, you need to look at the big picture. As long as the Pacific is good, eventually climo dictates the cold will ooze east. It's not going to happen anytime soon, you'll have to deal. Typical Nina. What happens if it never oozes east though, and that one-eyed pig returns?. I would think a negative EPO would help the cold air get into more areas of Canada than just the West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 The cold lurks on the EPS leo-on our side of the NHEM-that’s the important thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: The cold lurks on the EPS leo-on our side of the NHEM-that’s the important thing. Right. As you get deeper into waiter and wavelengths lengthen, the air masses are more broad. This yoke of year things are dipsie doodle so you have shorter wavelengths and prone to cutoffs. We just have to hope it hold through the month to allow for a decent December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: For the millionth time, you need to look at the big picture. As long as the Pacific is good, eventually climo dictates the cold will ooze east. It's not going to happen anytime soon, you'll have to deal. Typical Nina. The core of the cold is going to be west....la nina climo, but its weak, so it should penetrate far enough south and east. I couldn't care less about seeing the core of the cold, anyway...I'd rather be near the battle zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 cold now is almost wasted except for what happened in 2011...we need a good cold stretch the second half of December...something we haven't seen in years...1970 comes to mind when thinking about a cold ending to December...when I see the ao/nao go negative I'll feel a lot better about this upcoming winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 I was playing around...and trying to create a teleconnection that correlations to any sort of St. John's snowfall. Only statistically significant correlation with re: temperature is in December. However, when I did created a normalized temp/precip index...stuff seemed to work. R values are near 0.7 when I normalized the monthly precipitation and subtracted the normalized maximum daily temperature anomaly. Here is December. February looks the same with an R^2 near 0.5. Lower/more negative values are associated with more snow while high/more positive values are associated with less. 20 low "MTPN" months and their anomalies are plotted along with 20 high "MTPN" months. The 500mb composite for the top 20 snowiest December and the top 20 least snowy Decemberies are also shown. The Aleutian ridge is prominent along with troughing the PAC NW and low heights over Atlantic Canada to yield snowy results. Definitely a "good" Nina-esque look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 11 hours ago, leo2000 said: What happens if it never oozes east though, and that one-eyed pig returns?. I would think a negative EPO would help the cold air get into more areas of Canada than just the West. Always a possibility, but unlikely if we can establish a good ridge up there...esp during Nina. We'll keep an eye on the stratosphere too up in the arctic later in November...that can offer some hints. It looked really bad in years like 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 Folks over at Killington got to be sweating it out. Last year they opened October 25th. The FIS event is Nov 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 1 minute ago, MarkO said: Folks over at Killington got to be sweating it out. Last year they opened October 25th. The FIS event is Nov 25th. They'll prob blow a lot of snow on 11/1 behind the next cutter...and I suspect they'll get some more good cold shots in the 10 days after that. Just hopefully they avoid any massive southerly gale cutters like we have seen the last day or two and coming up on Sunday night. Those are the snow eaters. Ideally, there will be a nice tough pattern that sets in around T-day. Last year worked out great with the natural snow they got right at the end and also mood snow during the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 Hearing talk of a torchy week 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 3 hours ago, LurkerBoy said: Hearing talk of a torchy week 2? Telephone Game is tricky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 With my outlook due out in just a couple of weeks, I thought I'd review my past successes and failures: http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2017/10/as-we-head-into-home-stretch-of-autumn.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Hopefully this ends up being a weak la nina and not anything stronger so we can have the cold hang in there a little better. I also hope the storms don't just cut through us for most of the wnter storm pattern. However, usually with a la nina, the overall storm track is to hug the coast unfortunately. That's primarily why i hope a weak la nina prevails, alowing the cold to cut a little more deeper than it would otherwise. Hang in there, I'm with ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Interesting info on the predictability of the PNA and EPO http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/2017/10/new-ecmwf-seasonal-model.html?m=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 DT's Preliminary Winter Forecast fyi https://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/WINTERPRELIM1718short.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 He can caught up making mistakes on situational firecasts with the euro bias, but his big picture forecasting is very good....and it’s explained well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: He can caught up making mistakes on situational firecasts with the euro bias, but his big picture forecasting is very good....and it’s explained well. He caught himself last year....originally went blockbuster, but caught onto the propensity for a pretty potent PAC jet and revised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 4 hours ago, mitchnick said: DT's Preliminary Winter Forecast fyi https://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/WINTERPRELIM1718short.pdf I couldn't agree with him more....about his preliminary thoughts on the impending winter, as well as the dearth of value in early seasonal outlooks. Not sure I buy Dec being the warmest month relative to average, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.