LoveSN+ Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I checked ORH...there's 6 Octobers that were +5 or greater. The following winters don't show much trend: Basically as many have mentioned in this thread multiple times, October temps really have no correlation to DJF temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said: Basically as many have mentioned in this thread multiple times, October temps really have no correlation to DJF temps. Right, but sometimes extremes might have a correlation...i.e. the stuff between -2 sigma and 2 sigma has no correlation, but if we only focus on the stuff outside of sigma, perhaps a different response happens. But in this case, it doesn't appear that is the result...we get a wide variety of winters after extremely warm Octobers that seem to average close to climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The pocket of warmer in NE is a bit curious...not typical Nina climo...but the rest is pretty typical. Including the precip too. The only thing I can think of is a big neg NAO, but obviously it can't be that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Right, but sometimes extremes might have a correlation...i.e. the stuff between -2 sigma and 2 sigma has no correlation, but if we only focus on the stuff outside of sigma, perhaps a different response happens. But in this case, it doesn't appear that is the result...we get a wide variety of winters after extremely warm Octobers that seem to average close to climo. Seemed to me it was a biased a bit cooler and snowier than the norm. There was one ratter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck said: Pacific is pretty awful, this is the feeling of a long warm Winter incoming, although S-N gradient could be more (colder anomalies north). (Many of these Winters in the 2000s/2010s) How do you feel about your NAO forecast this season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I checked ORH...there's 6 Octobers that were +5 or greater. The following winters don't show much trend: So 32" to 100" for ORH. Lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Right, but sometimes extremes might have a correlation...i.e. the stuff between -2 sigma and 2 sigma has no correlation, but if we only focus on the stuff outside of sigma, perhaps a different response happens. But in this case, it doesn't appear that is the result...we get a wide variety of winters after extremely warm Octobers that seem to average close to climo. run a correlation with warm Octobers and cold Novembers , thats the ticket right there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 46 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: How do you feel about your NAO forecast this season? It will likely be a -NAO Winter Not booming sustainable blocks like the 60s, but back and forth more negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: You were also north of the best QPF in that one...it struggled to get much north and northeast of ORH. Shocking that ORH worked out okay. 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: The pocket of warmer in NE is a bit curious...not typical Nina climo...but the rest is pretty typical. Including the precip too. 52 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The only thing I can think of is a big neg NAO, but obviously it can't be that. As soon as Will said it, I was thinking this too. But I didn't want Scott to jump off the chairlift with visions of 2009-2010 cirrus smoke out again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 25 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Shocking that ORH worked out okay. As soon as Will said it, I was thinking this too. But I didn't want Scott to jump off the chairlift with visions of 2009-2010 cirrus smoke out again. Haha that winter really didn't bother me at all because the storms were *that* far south. The frustrating ones are when Gene and Dendrite get clobbered and we smoke cirrus...but BWI getting hammered doesn't even phase me haha. It might as well be Chicago. And we had some fun events that winter too. I was in BTV for the 33" upslope event, and there was that firehose event in later February that delivered a couple feet...of course we then got a whole lot of slop and rain/freezing rain not far after that when NYC got a blizzard. Late April also had the largest late season storm I've ever seen with feet at the ski resorts and 12-18" in most communities outside of BTV. I know the poster klm who lived in Peacham, VT had his largest event of the season on April 28th with like 14-16", lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 I will say as many know my pet peeve is when people immediately associate the chance of an above normal temperature winter with low snowfall. The NOAA winter forecast showing a >40% chance of a warmer than normal winter already has headlines at New England news stations of "warm and snowless winter expected" or "If you like snowy winters you may not like what NOAA has to say..." despite as far as I know, NOAA didn't make a snowfall forecast? It immediately feeds into the ski circles and then those folks start saying the NWS is calling for a low snow year...and a lot of skiers and riders make DIT look normal with knee jerk emotional responses to every little piece of news thrown at them regarding the upcoming winter, lol. The obsession with temperatures to make assumptions about snowfall in NNE mountains just seems very overblown. I keep thinking hey we can get great snow AND not have to deal with -20 to-30 at elevation for weeks on end (a la 2015) haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck said: It will likely be a -NAO Winter Not booming sustainable blocks like the 60s, but back and forth more negative. Sounds reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Sounds reasonable. We really had a chance with -QBO for some awesome setups. The Pacific for this time would have to be different, like totally opposite, (this October-Pacific is the decadal pattern..) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 1 minute ago, StormchaserChuck said: We really had a chance with -QBO for some awesome setups. The Pacific for this time would have to be different, like totally opposite, but this is the decadal pattern.. Which part of the Pacific? Are you alluding to tropical forcing, or the north PAC..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 La nina looks weak and east-based to me....PDO has been cooling, but not sure it ends up very negative.......I guess Pac jet could persist, but we've had good luck with the EPO more often than not....we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: Shocking that ORH worked out okay. As soon as Will said it, I was thinking this too. But I didn't want Scott to jump off the chairlift with visions of 2009-2010 cirrus smoke out again. Maybe they were referring to this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Right, but sometimes extremes might have a correlation...i.e. the stuff between -2 sigma and 2 sigma has no correlation, but if we only focus on the stuff outside of sigma, perhaps a different response happens. But in this case, it doesn't appear that is the result...we get a wide variety of winters after extremely warm Octobers that seem to average close to climo. yeah ... this is more along the lines of why the question was ask. this isn't looking (at this time...) like your average run-o-the-mill annoyingly warm october we got going on here. maybe such enormous departure means something - i dunno. if we put up a couple of +20 diurnals on top of running +7s ...then fail to comp in the back end than it's pretty much an official freak-tober. kinda like the march back in ... 2011? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: NOAA's probabilistic forecast.... Just look at their summer call, yawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: The obsession with temperatures to make assumptions about snowfall in NNE mountains just seems very overblown. I keep thinking hey we can get great snow AND not have to deal with -20 to-30 at elevation for weeks on end (a la 2015) haha. I’m surprised you didn’t comment back when we were talking about the winter of 2000-2001. Will had this to say about that winter… On 10/17/2017 at 2:42 PM, ORH_wxman said: The only thing lacking that winter was big cold... Oh no… “darn”… When I initially saw what he wrote I probably fainted just a bit. I can’t say that I really recall the temperatures that year, but you mean to say we had that ridiculous amount of snow and we didn’t have to deal with freezing our asses off? As if the snowfall hadn’t already elevated that winter into essentially mythical status around here, we learn that the stars had actually aligned to bring it to an even higher echelon of perfection. As I look back at my trip reports from that season I can see that it wasn’t always a bed of roses – I was just reminded of a storm where we had to deal with some sleet, but still, all that snow and no big cold (and apparently no massive thaws either?) is a pretty great combination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 12 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Just look at their summer call, yawn Can you post their summer 2017 program? TYIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 As generic as they are, NOAA probably has been one of the better calls over the last few years compared to anyone else. And WeatherBell probably one of the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 12 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Just look at their summer call, yawn Not that I'm condoning these long range outlooks, because they always seem to cause more trouble than they're worth, but correlations aren't the strongest in the summer. You would expect a little more weight could be given to the winter forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 I think these NOAA outlooks are a joke IMO, seasonal outlooks are a crap shoot as it is. It seems correct to assume that NOAA is basing that outlook off of typical Nina climate as there are also other factors which could lead to a completely different outcome then what they are predicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 11 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: I think these NOAA outlooks are a joke IMO, seasonal outlooks are a crap shoot as it is. It seems correct to assume that NOAA is basing that outlook off of typical Nina climate as there are also other factors which could lead to a completely different outcome then what they are predicting. I also don't see a huge reason to deviate too much from the climo. Clearly there is a reason why New England has a high confidence in warming...so I'm sure they at least looked into it with some detail. I'm not saying it's right...but I think it's as good of a call as anyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 Climo doesn’t seem like a bad call. I’m not Super optimistic here. Does anything scream good winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Climo doesn’t seem like a bad call. I’m not Super optimistic here. Does anything scream good winter? Nothing screams either direction. At least IMO. You can make arguments for either side...but at least at the moment...I don't see anything that screams terrible either. We shall see. When it comes to snowfall...everything really is just voodoo. Snowfall is so much tougher to predict vs temps...and temps are hard enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 Moderate/Strong Nina vs. Weak Weak on top moderate/strong on bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 8 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Moderate/Strong Nina vs. Weak Weak on top moderate/strong on bottom Seems to put us in-between, so a variable winter? Significant shots of cold (and, if timed right, snow) with perhaps a significant thaw in there. My bet is this (at least for New England) A colder than normal December (pattern flip in early-mid November) most like snowier than normal, too. January is hard a cold start and a mild finish? average snowfall (but as February milder than normal, strong thaw March flip back to cold (and snowy depending on the voodoo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 Differences evident...in the weak seasons, as this one will be, the cold penetrates further east and the se ridge is less pronounced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 If I don’t see some high latitude blocking show up in the first 3 weeks of November then I’ll be worried about this winter not permorfmimg. All la Nina’s that had a -nao average in November had a good winter. The +nao averaged La Niña November’s look shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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