40/70 Benchmark Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Those are anomalies, so beware pretty colors. Just like when Someone posts that we have blocking over Greenland, but it's still cyclonic flow, just AN heights. It's unfortunate, but we background warm. .....But when the reds are over eastern Mass, its the real deal. Anywhere good, and its becuase it was colder 346 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 We are conditioned to expect a dearth of NAO blocking...so lets think of what else the reds near Greenland could represent lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: .....But when the reds are over eastern Mass, its the real deal. Anywhere good, and its becuase it was colder 346 years ago. LOL, well you still get a sense of blocking when you have those deeper oranges and reds. I think Nick was just saying to keep that in mind with some of the more subtle AN heights. Personally, I can still get a sense of those maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We are conditioned to expect a dearth of NAO blocking...so lets think of what else the reds near Greenland could represent lol hey...im paraphrasing hm. Its just something he noticed. It does make some sense. Im generally on the good train, but this stuff is grey area/voo doo in the end. It's a guessing game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 If I had to pick 3 analogs, I think I'd go with 1995-1996, 2000-2001, and 2005-2006. They represent the best matches in enso, amo, pdo, and qbo, especially if the pacific stays on the warmer side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It seems like there is always a catch when it comes to the NAO....."I know the heigher heights near the southern tip of Greenland look like a negative NAO, but an obese eskimo actually queefed...so its false and transient" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 42 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: If I had to pick 3 analogs, I think I'd go with 1995-1996, 2000-2001, and 2005-2006. They represent the best matches in enso, amo, pdo, and qbo, especially if the pacific stays on the warmer side. At least all 3 had a good December (for interior anyways). 2005-2006 diverges wildly after that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 47 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: hey...im paraphrasing hm. Its just something he noticed. It does make some sense. Im generally on the good train, but this stuff is grey area/voo doo in the end. It's a guessing game. I'm only joking....I get what he is saying and it makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: At least all 3 had a good December (for interior anyways). 2005-2006 diverges wildly after that though. yeah january had the one eyed pig then february had a big northeast trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 51 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: If I had to pick 3 analogs, I think I'd go with 1995-1996, 2000-2001, and 2005-2006. They represent the best matches in enso, amo, pdo, and qbo, especially if the pacific stays on the warmer side. I like 1983-1984, too...in addition to those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 Interesting 95/96 is creeping up on analogs. Not because “omg another 100” snowfall coming for sw ct” but because of the activity. There was massive cutters and flooding rains that winter but man, it was system after system iirc. In a perfect world we reduce those and double the snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 Even though the winter of 2005-2006 was mild, it did feature above normal snowfall. That winter also had strong noreasters such as December 9, 2005 and February 12, 2006. I think there was also an easterly flow event on January 3, 2006 that featured significant snow in the interior. March 2006 had a significant late season snow event south of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 22 minutes ago, TheCloser24 said: Even though the winter of 2005-2006 was mild, it did feature above normal snowfall. That winter also had strong noreasters such as December 9, 2005 and February 12, 2006. I think there was also an easterly flow event on January 3, 2006 that featured significant snow in the interior. March 2006 had a significant late season snow event south of the pike. That Jan 3, 2006 event was awful here....ssts killed me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That Jan 3, 2006 event was awful here....ssts killed me. You were also north of the best QPF in that one...it struggled to get much north and northeast of ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 Pretty significant changes from 6z to 12z GEFS 500mb at day 10. Models seem confused if there should be ridging near AK or not. I suspect they will continue to do this for the next two weeks. One positive I see is that there is still ridging near Greenland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 Some Meterologists have said the GFS Op has been volatile for months now. However, yesterday the EURO Op was trying to show a blocking pattern now it backed off. The current GFS 12z is showing almost everyone cooling down a lot by the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 1 minute ago, Powderboy413 said: Pretty significant changes from 6z to 12z GEFS 500mb at day 10. Models seem confused if there should be ridging near AK or not. I suspect they will continue to do this for the next two weeks. One positive I see is that there is still ridging near Greenland Does the Euro shows ridging near Greenland too?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 29 minutes ago, leo2000 said: Does the Euro shows ridging near Greenland too?. Someone is bound to say "only in our Pre-New Permian climate". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 1 minute ago, J Paul Gordon said: Someone is bound to say "only in our Pre-New Permian climate". LEO gets weirdly strung out on the NAO even though he lives in northern Nova Scotia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 33 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: LEO gets weirdly strung out on the NAO even though he lives in northern Nova Scotia. I realize the cold air doesn't come here but it's nearby. At least normal temperatures here with their is a negative NAO. Not the same for Newfoundland however still remains mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its transient ridging, not blocking. People over think NAO, use monthly values instead of dailies and slopes of rise fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 1 minute ago, leo2000 said: I realize the cold air doesn't come here but it's nearby. And how relative is mild where are you are to "cold" in say Philadelphia? (Not meant as sarcasm, I'm just curious what the temps are up there in a mild pattern this time of year). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 1 minute ago, J Paul Gordon said: And how relative is mild where are you are to "cold" in say Philadelphia? (Not meant as sarcasm, I'm just curious what the temps are up there in a mild pattern this time of year). Well right now the temperature is 18 degrees celsius here (64 Fahrenfeit). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 64 is beautiful weather for any place...enjoy. It's gorgeous here in SNE today...temp is 71. Was around 70 yesterday too, and will be again tomorrow and through the weekend. This is nice stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 Pacific is pretty awful, this is the feeling of a long warm Winter incoming, although S-N gradient could be more (colder anomalies north). (Many of these Winters in the 2000s/2010s) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 NOAA's probabilistic forecast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 Straight nina climatology. Nothing new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 has anyone done a roll-forward analysis off a +5 or even +9 October ? 'Course, I'm beginning to wonder if this October is uniquely hot - as in, historically so. Like, no one would know what the ensuing winter did off this sort of October because, heh, it's never happened. MOS/GFSX is pushin' 20 over climate for Sat/Sun with two days to go, so ... we could be sporting low 80s those afternoons. And I wonder if the nights are too low in those numbers given to this processed air mass with creeping DPs ... yes it will decouple some with the long nights but that's a long way to go and I suspect if the highs and synoptics pan out, with high pressure firmly situated S and counter flow continental breezes ... 44 seems a little deep. We'll see... but I'm still wondering what the ensuing winters did off the top 10 warm Octobers. My guess is 6 out of 10 of them were warmer than normal, leaving enough suggestion in the other way to spark the perfunctory vitriol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 10 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said: Straight nina climatology. Nothing new. The pocket of warmer in NE is a bit curious...not typical Nina climo...but the rest is pretty typical. Including the precip too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: has anyone done a roll-forward analysis off a +5 or even +9 October ? 'Course, I'm beginning to wonder if this October is uniquely hot - as in, historically so. Like, no one would know what the ensuing winter did off this sort of October because, heh, it's never happened. MOS/GFSX is pushin' 20 over climate for Sat/Sun with two days to go, so ... we could be sporting low 80s those afternoons. And I wonder if the nights are too low in those numbers given to this processed air mass with creeping DPs ... yes it will decouple some with the long nights but that's a long way to go and I suspect if the highs and synoptics pan out, with high pressure firmly situated S and counter flow continental breezes ... 44 seems a little deep. We'll see... but I'm still wondering what the ensuing winters did off the top 10 warm Octobers. My guess is 6 out of 10 of them were warmer than normal, leaving enough suggestion in the other way to spark the perfunctory vitriol. I checked ORH...there's 6 Octobers that were +5 or greater. The following winters don't show much trend: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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