J Paul Gordon Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 52 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: only positive amo. subdivided further: -pdo +pdo So trough in the East (like on to p of us) and big ridge out west. HP from Hudson's Bay to Greenland (blocking?) Tell me I don't have this completely backwards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 Blue is your friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 27 minutes ago, dryslot said: Blue is your friend. As I thought (hoped!). Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 2 hours ago, OSUmetstud said: only positive amo. subdivided further: -pdo +pdo I thought we have -pdo or at least getting there. Why look at +pdo? Not that I don't like the look of it but still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 6 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said: I thought we have -pdo or at least getting there. Why look at +pdo? Not that I don't like the look of it but still... we have a slightly negative PDO for September. 2000-2001, 2005-2006, and 2016-2017 all had a negative PDO now, but ended up averaging positive from December through March for their respective seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 Yeah a +PDO is definitely a possibility...though the SST trend in the past few weeks is for things to go more negative, but it's not a strong enough trend to conclude we will have a -PDO this winter. GOA is still actually a little above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah a +PDO is definitely a possibility...though the SST trend in the past few weeks is for things to go more negative, but it's not a strong enough trend to conclude we will have a -PDO this winter. GOA is still actually a little above average. I'm not sure if it's really a significant predictor for our area of the globe but I figured it might be relevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: I'm not sure if it's really a significant predictor for our area of the globe but I figured it might be relevant. South of NYC will need the NAO if it ends up negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 4 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: I'm not sure if it's really a significant predictor for our area of the globe but I figured it might be relevant. It doesn't seem to be in New England in terms of snowfall...but it definitely seems it influences how the winter will behave synoptically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 Blocking ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 10 day prog in October....boing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 10 day prog in October....boing. its pretty amazing how favored that time period is for strong synoptic storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 I'm just ready for man snow again. Let's see how many get offended by that term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'm just ready for man snow again. Let's see how many get offended by that term. it's 2017. You can't just go around assuming the gender of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: Blocking ! Didn't we learn anything from last year? And doesn't the ridging east of Hawaii and troughing on the WC suggest that something about this solution seems off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 17 minutes ago, Eduardo said: Didn't we learn anything from last year? And doesn't the ridging east of Hawaii and troughing on the WC suggest that something about this solution seems off? I don't see it as impossible as we do have a very negative QBO as well as a recurving Typhoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 22 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: How do you guys think this compares to what has transpired? I wish it were a bit warmer....but not terrible. Has the very positive NAO and Kev's one eyed willie.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 6 hours ago, Eduardo said: Didn't we learn anything from last year? And doesn't the ridging east of Hawaii and troughing on the WC suggest that something about this solution seems off? The wavelengths are shorter this time of year, so the expected pattern with a ridge east of Hawaii in mid-winter doesn't apply here. As you can see, there is basically an "extra" ridge there. Normally in the winter a ridge east of Hawaii would result in a -PNA and high heights in the East. Here, however, the ridge east of Hawaii results in a diffuse East Pacific trough, which raises heights in Western Canada and leads to a +PNA, with a downstream trough in the Northeast. The shorter wavelengths allow for an additional step in the pattern. The late October blocking has been signaled on most models for the past couple of weeks. So I'm pretty sure it's going to occur. What form that storm system will take is anyone's guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, nzucker said: The wavelengths are shorter this time of year, so the expected pattern with a ridge east of Hawaii in mid-winter doesn't apply here. As you can see, there is basically an "extra" ridge there. Normally in the winter a ridge east of Hawaii would result in a -PNA and high heights in the East. Here, however, the ridge east of Hawaii results in a diffuse East Pacific trough, which raises heights in Western Canada and leads to a +PNA, with a downstream trough in the Northeast. The shorter wavelengths allow for an additional step in the pattern. The late October blocking has been signaled on most models for the past couple of weeks. So I'm pretty sure it's going to occur. What form that storm system will take is anyone's guess... Its transient ridging, not blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its transient ridging, not blocking. I wouldn't be surprised if this pattern evolves into an overall blockier look for November. Maybe not right away, but the combination of a recurving typhoon along with a weak Nina/-QBO should prime the atmosphere for some degree of blocking. A lot of the analogs and long-range modeling has indicated a possibility of a much colder November after near record warmth in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 28 minutes ago, nzucker said: I wouldn't be surprised if this pattern evolves into an overall blockier look for November. Maybe not right away, but the combination of a recurving typhoon along with a weak Nina/-QBO should prime the atmosphere for some degree of blocking. A lot of the analogs and long-range modeling has indicated a possibility of a much colder November after near record warmth in October. I don't disagree with that, but its a whole different issue....its initially transient...at least as of now. We need to be careful not to drop blocking bombs with every shade of red over Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't disagree with that, but its a whole different issue....its initially transient...at least as of now. We need to be careful not to drop blocking bombs with every shade of red over Greenland. Yeah you put this point much more elegantly than I did. At what point do we classify Greenland ridging as blocking? Is it a matter of degree, duration, or both? 1 hour ago, nzucker said: The wavelengths are shorter this time of year, so the expected pattern with a ridge east of Hawaii in mid-winter doesn't apply here. As you can see, there is basically an "extra" ridge there. Normally in the winter a ridge east of Hawaii would result in a -PNA and high heights in the East. Here, however, the ridge east of Hawaii results in a diffuse East Pacific trough, which raises heights in Western Canada and leads to a +PNA, with a downstream trough in the Northeast. The shorter wavelengths allow for an additional step in the pattern. The late October blocking has been signaled on most models for the past couple of weeks. So I'm pretty sure it's going to occur. What form that storm system will take is anyone's guess... Thanks for explaining! When do wavelengths tend to lengthen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Given the ensembles Ak troughing will show up in the anomalies by the end of October imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 5 hours ago, Eduardo said: Yeah you put this point much more elegantly than I did. At what point do we classify Greenland ridging as blocking? Is it a matter of degree, duration, or both? Thanks for explaining! When do wavelengths tend to lengthen? Usually once you get into later December and January. That's when things finally become stratified from north to south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 cold neutral, weak nina, and moderate nina positive qbo vs. negative qbo. negative on top, positive on bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 6 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: cold neutral, weak nina, and moderate nina positive qbo vs. negative qbo. negative on top, positive on bottom So if I am getting this right, our projected Nina for this year, is at least consistent with New England and the Mid Atlantic being on the cold side of the gradient, and Greenland blocking that could create good storms. The analog years seem to be pretty good from a snow perspective? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: So if I am getting this right, our projected Nina for this year, is at least consistent with New England and the Mid Atlantic being on the cold side of the gradient, and Greenland blocking that could create good storms. The analog years seem to be pretty good from a snow perspective? Generally speaking is does I think. Something that HM noted that you have to be careful of, is that there's a tendency in the composites to produce a "false" negative NAO signal because of it comparing more modern years to a longer term anomaly in a warmed arctic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 48 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Generally speaking is does I think. Something that HM noted that you have to be careful of, is that there's a tendency in the composites to produce a "false" negative NAO signal because of it comparing more modern years to a longer term anomaly in a warmed arctic. That makes sense, but it does look classic in that the deepest colors are right near the southern tip of Greenland - very good for the Mid Atlantic. Would suggest not a lot of Miller A storms but perhaps a lot of Miller B storms, and some that slow down and deepen, and a lot of SWFEs running from the Western Canada trough through the midwest and through the northeast. What are the precip analogs? That looks like a moist/wet winter, with DC north getting shots for SECS, and New England getting in on some of those as well as a parade of small and mid size storms. A wet dream perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 It seems like there is always a catch when it comes to the NAO....."I know the heigher heights near the southern tip of Greenland look like a negative NAO, but an obese eskimo actually queefed...so its false and transient" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 19, 2017 Share Posted October 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It seems like there is always a catch when it comes to the NAO....."I know the heigher heights near the southern tip of Greenland look like a negative NAO, but an obese eskimo actually queefed".. Those are anomalies, so beware pretty colors. Just like when Someone posts that we have blocking over Greenland, but it's still cyclonic flow, just AN heights. It's unfortunate, but we background warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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