Countdown to Winter 2017-2018 Thread

[weathafella]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Parts of SNE though....ORH had around 100 inches in 1971-1972 and had over 100" in 2000-2001. 2008-2009 was pretty darned good for most of SNE....not historic, but pretty damned good.

 

Though I'm surprised 1995-1996 was not on there. That was a weak Nino.

I think you mean Nina.  

[OSUmetstud]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

00-01 was impressive but i tend not to judge winters by a snowfall total, look at last year

By what measure is 2000 2001 not a great winter?  Lots of snow and great snowpack from the Midwest through Ne into canada.  Not enough big storms?

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

By what measure is 2000 2001 not a great winter?  Lots of snow and great snowpack from the Midwest through Ne into canada.  Not enough big storms?

It wasn't great in southern half of SNE and maybe right along the coast near BOS...it was merely just good. But it was one of the all time winters for places like N ORH county back into Berkshires and of course for much of NNE.

 

It def had big storms though....Feb 5, 2001 and March 4-6, 2001 are two signature storms for the interior over the past couple decade.

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I think you mean Nina.  

Yes I did...good catch. Def wasn't a Nino, lol.

 

 

[OSUmetstud]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

It wasn't great in southern half of SNE and maybe right along the coast near BOS...it was merely just good. But it was one of the all time winters for places like N ORH county back into Berkshires and of course for much of NNE.

 

It def had big storms though....Feb 5, 2001 and March 4-6, 2001 are two signature storms for the interior over the past couple decade.

I guess that does make some sense.  The stripe of historic snow was from I 90 north.  Historic in Buffalo Toronto Montreal Orh stj etc. 

[weathafella]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yes I did...good catch. Def wasn't a Nino, lol.

 

 

Although ironically we got somewhat similar results.

[MJO812]

18 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

12z EURO day 10 has a monster EC storm developing.

Every model has a storm developing

Could be a interesting way to end October

Cold rain near the coast and maybe snow far inland?

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Although ironically we got somewhat similar results.

Yes it behaved like a Nino in some respects....it had a bit of a STJ active for a time in February which helped the Mid-Atlantic...andin January, we got a split flow which kind of gave a pseudo-STJ look even though it wasn't an actual STJ...the split flow actually led to the Blizzard of '96.

 

6 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I guess that does make some sense.  The stripe of historic snow was from I 90 north.  Historic in Buffalo Toronto Montreal Orh stj etc. 

That winter also lacked any huge thaws which was great for the snowpack crowd. After the monster cutter on Dec 17, 2000 that actually brought damaging winds, what thaws we actually had were quite muted and short lived. So while January and February weren't particularly cold, they didn't have any big torches. After that 12/17/00 cutter, ORH actually did not hit 50F again until the next April....March was definitely no spring month that season.

[Ginx snewx]

21 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

By what measure is 2000 2001 not a great winter?  Lots of snow and great snowpack from the Midwest through Ne into canada.  Not enough big storms?

Um I said it was impressive 

[OSUmetstud]

13 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Every model has a storm developing

Could be a interesting way to end October

Cold rain near the coast and maybe snow far inland?

Looks like a cold front.  Cool.  

[OSUmetstud]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Um I said it was impressive 

Ok

[OSUmetstud]

17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes it behaved like a Nino in some respects....it had a bit of a STJ active for a time in February which helped the Mid-Atlantic...andin January, we got a split flow which kind of gave a pseudo-STJ look even though it wasn't an actual STJ...the split flow actually led to the Blizzard of '96.

 

That winter also lacked any huge thaws which was great for the snowpack crowd. After the monster cutter on Dec 17, 2000 that actually brought damaging winds, what thaws we actually had were quite muted and short lived. So while January and February weren't particularly cold, they didn't have any big torches. After that 12/17/00 cutter, ORH actually did not hit 50F again until the next April....March was definitely no spring month that season.

Yeah cool.   Its buf's 1"+ depth days record (114) and roc's number 2.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nothing impressive in SNE in that list

Weak Nina is second to only to weak nino.

I'll take my chances.

[J Paul Gordon]

57 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said:

Hope springs eternal?

Not in Tolland. It is the last hold out of Puritan pessimism

[J.Spin]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

00-01 was impressive but i tend not to judge winters by a snowfall total, look at last year

 

36 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

By what measure is 2000 2001 not a great winter?  Lots of snow and great snowpack from the Midwest through Ne into canada.  Not enough big storms?

 

15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Um I said it was impressive 

 

11 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Ok

 

I saw this exchange and thought it funny because Ginx didn’t actually didn’t bring up any negatives about 2000-2001… it’s just the fact that there was any text after the initial “impressive” that was probably surprising.  There isn’t necessarily anything to read into it, it’s just the fact that around here in NVT when 2000-2001 comes up you don’t tend to hear about any qualifiers… you just sort of smile and nod and leave it at that.  For skiers in our area it simply sets the standard for ski seasons post 1970-ish, so if there were any big negatives about it they’re probably just long forgotten footnotes buried beneath a snowy dream.

 

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

 

 

 

I saw this exchange and thought it funny because Ginx didn’t actually didn’t bring up any negatives about 2000-2001… it’s just the fact that there was any text after the initial “impressive” that was probably surprising.  There isn’t necessarily anything to read into it, it’s just the fact that around here in NVT when 2000-2001 comes up you don’t tend to hear about any qualifiers… you just sort of smile and nod and leave it at that.  For skiers in our area it simply sets the standard for ski seasons post 1970-ish, so if there were any big negatives about it they’re probably just long forgotten footnotes buried beneath a snowy dream.

 

I was in Newry Me. for the first Feb storm and again in March for the big Daddy, impressive year for NNE for sure except I don't live there. Impressive here  for totals but I am a sustained winter guy not a stats guy. Winters to me are defined best with long sustained snowpack, cold, thick ice, with a dispersal of solid storms with the occasional 12 inch plus. Stats are fun to look at but when your stats melt in days its not impressive to me.

[dryslot]

55 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I was in Newry Me. for the first Feb storm and again in March for the big Daddy, impressive year for NNE for sure except I don't live there. Impressive here  for totals but I am a sustained winter guy not a stats guy. Winters to me are defined best with long sustained snowpack, cold, thick ice, with a dispersal of solid storms with the occasional 12 inch plus. Stats are fun to look at but when your stats melt in days its not impressive to me.

this

[J.Spin]

30 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

...impressive year for NNE for sure except I don't live there.

 

Yeah, it sounds like it’s sort of a location-specific perspective, maybe in line with Will’s comments earlier in the thread.  As he said, it was “one of the all-time winters” for N ORH county and northward into NNE, but obviously not everywhere.

[weathafella]

5 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

Yeah, it sounds like it’s sort of a location-specific perspective, maybe in line with Will’s comments earlier in the thread.  As he said, it was “one of the all-time winters” for N ORH county and northward into NNE, but obviously not everywhere.

There's the rub.   2000-01 was so close in parts of SNE.  For BOS, it was decent but maybe 0.5 degrees from epicosity.  

[Ginx snewx]

8 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

Yeah, it sounds like it’s sort of a location-specific perspective,.

As Jerry would say, fuk the rest of ya, lol

[ORH_wxman]

15 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

Yeah, it sounds like it’s sort of a location-specific perspective, maybe in line with Will’s comments earlier in the thread.  As he said, it was “one of the all-time winters” for N ORH county and northward into NNE, but obviously not everywhere.

The only thing lacking that winter was big cold...we only got fringed by the December 2000 stuff which was mostly centered in the plans and midwest and then Jan/Feb were actually not cold at all...but the lack of torches made for good snow retention. Consistent highs between 27-34 with the occasional "torch" of 40-45F, but no real mild cutters or general warm spells. For your area, I'm sure it was similar except temps adjusted to what fits climo there...prob a lot of days in the 20s instead of teens. March was cold, but not in the 2014, 2015, or 2017 type way....it was mostly consistent 20s, 30s and 40s with a lot of cloudiness and of course with plenty of snow events.

 

As I look ahead to this winter, our recent proclivity for a more -EPO than what we saw in the 1990s and early 2000s leads me to believe that we will probably get some decent cold outbreaks.

[Snowstorms]

3 hours ago, OSUmetstud said:

I guess that does make some sense.  The stripe of historic snow was from I 90 north.  Historic in Buffalo Toronto Montreal Orh stj etc. 

2000-01 was an exceptionally great Winter in Toronto and worlds better than the crappy winter preceding it. 

At YKZ, we got 36.6" in December alone. We finished that Winter with 73.4". Would be great to get a repeat of that Winter, but we shall see. 

 

 

[leo2000]

It looks like a big Scandinavia block in the 6-10 day ECMWF Op. Does anyone have the current teleconnections?. The website is blank for me. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 hours ago, leo2000 said:

It looks like a big Scandinavia block in the 6-10 day ECMWF Op. Does anyone have the current teleconnections?. The website is blank for me. 

James stole the favorable teleconnections and applied it to his upcoming monster systems. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Parts of SNE though....ORH had around 100 inches in 1971-1972 and had over 100" in 2000-2001. 2008-2009 was pretty darned good for most of SNE....not historic, but pretty damned good.

 

Though I'm surprised 1995-1996 was not on there. That was a weak Nino.

Yea, I had 90.7" '71-'72..sign me up...impressive for many.

2008-'09...82.5".

Just confirms what we already know....northern half of the region is favored.

Even 2000-2001 and 1983-1984 were solidly above normal here.

1995-'96 should be included, too...'nuff said.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

The only thing lacking that winter was big cold...we only got fringed by the December 2000 stuff which was mostly centered in the plans and midwest and then Jan/Feb were actually not cold at all...but the lack of torches made for good snow retention. Consistent highs between 27-34 with the occasional "torch" of 40-45F, but no real mild cutters or general warm spells. For your area, I'm sure it was similar except temps adjusted to what fits climo there...prob a lot of days in the 20s instead of teens. March was cold, but not in the 2014, 2015, or 2017 type way....it was mostly consistent 20s, 30s and 40s with a lot of cloudiness and of course with plenty of snow events.

 

As I look ahead to this winter, our recent proclivity for a more -EPO than what we saw in the 1990s and early 2000s leads me to believe that we will probably get some decent cold outbreaks.

We have been lucky with the EPO over the course of the last decade+...really picked up the slack of the capricious NAO/AO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

As Jerry would say, fuk the rest of ya, lol

Def. not as impressive for your area....but you did include sne in your original post...I think.

Anyway, its a good look for northern portion of the region, and serviceable for the south.

[LoveSN+]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Def. not as impressive for your area....but you did include sne in your original post...I think.

Anyway, its a good look for northern portion of the region, and serviceable for the south.

Anyway, s

When are we graciously awarded your annual outlook?

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said:

When are we graciously awarded your annual outlook?

Mid Novie...usually around the 12th.

Ramping things up now, as the active cane season and baseball playoffs have me behind.

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We have been lucky with the EPO over the course of the last decade+...really picked up the slack of the capricious NAO/AO.

Yeah and especially the past 5 years. Not coincidence either that we've gotten some pretty decent cold outbreaks in the past few years.

 

I am hoping that we continue to see the EPO help out this year because I'm not counting on the NAO...though maybe it will surprise. 1995-1996 certainly did....we had gone 8 consecutive winters with a +NAO before '95-'96.