RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 41 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I just think the one eyed pig is going to be a pain in our sides for large portions of the winter. And maybe a slightly stronger than normal SE ridge pushing zone north. And I could see a drier than normal winter..though that I'm not as confident in Thats fine. I could see a warm stretch for 3-4 weeks myself with AK troughing but I dont see 11/12 imo. The pig is there for about a week then all signs point to ridging to close out the month. if it comes back for majority of Nov then I will salute you and hop on the rat mobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 I think it stays weak, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 50 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I just think the one eyed pig is going to be a pain in our sides for large portions of the winter. And maybe a slightly stronger than normal SE ridge pushing zone north. And I could see a drier than normal winter..though that I'm not as confident in Look at mid November. If the guidance breaking down the pig holds, the question will be how quickly it returns. If it breaks down by 11/5 and shows signs of returning a week or 2 later, we may be in trouble. If the change to remove the vortex (displaced west) strengthens beyond current guidance, we may be in good shape. The next 6 weeks tell the tale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Look at mid November. If the guidance breaking down the pig holds, the question will be how quickly it returns. If it breaks down by 11/5 and shows signs of returning a week or 2 later, we may be in trouble. If the change to remove the vortex (displaced west) strengthens beyond current guidance, we may be in good shape. The next 6 weeks tell the tale. No arguments there . NoV is very impossible in determining how our winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 8 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said: latest Glosea5 shows positive NAO and a central la Nina. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean How accurate is that model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 GFS 10-16 day forecasts show cold air coming into the northern tier of the country in this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 All rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 40 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: How accurate is that model? If it shows meh for you then it’s very accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 GFS and ensembles show troughing for the end of October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 teleconnections respond to troughing over the east and ridging back west, with a +PNA/-AO/-NAO pattern resuming during the last week of OCT and beginning of NOV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: GFS and ensembles show troughing for the end of October Welcome to 7 days ago. Have no fear, “winter is coming.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Welcome to 7 days ago. Have no fear, “winter is coming.” Definitely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 Looks like James has awoken. Just need the DIT to flip negative now. It seems a bit more neutral lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Definitely Id prefer to see that look on Dec 1st not Nov 1st but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Id prefer to see that look on Dec 1st not Nov 1st but... Yeah I would agree, but early season snow is fun to get us in the mood. I would prefer the ENSO to be in neutral more so or slightly El Nino, but again a small La Nina isn't bad either, just more miller Bs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 Just now, dendrite said: Looks like James has awoken. Just need the DIT to flip negative now. It seems a bit more neutral lately. At the first sign of troughing after Columbus day....the first chapter of the awakening novel begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 I'm waiting to talk to a writer before I sign the agreement with a non traditional publisher, but my dad wants me to talk to a writer before I do in case he has other agents or publisher information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sebastiaan1973 Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 6 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: How accurate is that model? https://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/elibrary/2013/13933-seasonal-decadal-prediction-arctic-oscillation.pdf And a study which might be interesting. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/271737956_Impacts_of_two_types_of_La_Nina_on_the_NAO_during_boreal_winter There seems to be two types of La Nina with different implications for our weather. We - the winter lovers- need an Eastern Pacific La Nina. E.g. 2006-1996-1985. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 8 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I'm waiting to talk to a writer before I sign the agreement with a non traditional publisher, but my dad wants me to talk to a writer before I do in case he has other agents or publisher information. what does this have to do with winter 2017-2018?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 I love the random models pulled out of the collective basements of weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 Does Kevin have a 10 day image to suggest the winter pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Does Kevin have a 10 day image to suggest the winter pattern? Only if his fave piggy is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Only if his fave piggy is showing. Piggy piggy piggy, can't you see Kevin's over/under is set to 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Piggy piggy piggy, can't you see Kevin's over/under is set to 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Piggy piggy piggy, can't you see Kevin's over/under is set to 30. spinning over AK just hypnotizes me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: spinning over AK just hypnotizes me. AK vortex runs to us, Wanna warm us, screw us, Who us? Yeah southern new england. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 That was good one. Anyway, if itsnows around halloween we know what analog will be plastered on here. That setup looks pretty good for frozen esp nne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 So the Pacific changes for a few days in early Nov and Scooter gets all excited about early snow. Big big winter !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: There it is. You’re on record for a historic winter. GL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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