weathafella Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 Yeah Ray is obsessed with my so called obsession with LEON, not leo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: He is talking about the poster leo Oh, I thought he was abbreviating leon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: Yeah Ray is obsessed with my so called obsession with LEON, not leo. So called? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: So called? Well this season has no resemblance nor have I alluded to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: Well this season has no resemblance nor have I alluded to it. Fair enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 the correlation between temperature and snowfall in St. John's in December is actually stronger than I thought it might be. It's more important than precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 All months. Precipitation matters more in January and April. December temperature matters more. February and March are about equal. #nightshifts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sebastiaan1973 Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 latest Glosea5 shows positive NAO and a central la Nina. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 9 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said: latest Glosea5 shows positive NAO and a central la Nina. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean Seems to get snowier as the winter goes along I'd think. A bit contrary to typical nina climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 Hopefully that model is wrong....that would be a bad pattern for us...even NNE. Though I'll add that maybe late in the winter we'd do pretty well. Like Nick said, it kind of looks weird that the pattern looks better later in winter during a La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 23 hours ago, dryslot said: Yeah, Most of these fall in the 7-10:1 ratio range that i have seen when i have taken core samples, Morerso then the 12:1 type stuff or higher especially here in the coastal plain. Did better for 07-08 in the foothills (which should be no surprise for ratios) - our 142.3" had an average 10.9-to-1 ratio. The 21 events 3"+ were 11:1, two late season storms with P-type issues each brought 2.0" of 5:1 glop, and 21 "tinies" (0.1" to 1.8") dropped 11.2" of 13.8-to-1 powder. That season had 7 events 7"+, 2 more 6"-6.9", and an even dozen 3.0" to 5.9". Of the 21 three-plus, 8 came in Feb, 7 in Dec, 3 each Jan-Mar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 Welcome to mod Nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 Why are they units so small? Anomalies on the order of hundredths of millimeters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 37 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Welcome to mod Nina You forgot to show the January map where the purples extend down through almost all of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 If its an active pattern, I'll go on record as saying the gradient will be near by at worst. Its not going to be up by Burlington, VT...I'm talking in the aggregate, thus seasonal totals. Warmer stretches notwithstanding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Hopefully that model is wrong....that would be a bad pattern for us...even NNE. Though I'll add that maybe late in the winter we'd do pretty well. Like Nick said, it kind of looks weird that the pattern looks better later in winter during a La Nina. U can see the Nov Dec Jan 500mb anomalies aren't terrible displaced from Dec 2007...less ridging into the GOA and a more northerly displaced 50/50 low. But that makes a huge difference sensibly obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said: Why are they units so small? Anomalies on the order of hundredths of millimeters? Weather. Made. Confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 51 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said: You forgot to show the January map where the purples extend down through almost all of SNE. Well it has to fit his agenda. Ratter incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Well it has to fit his agenda. Ratter incoming. My agenda? Because I want a warm snowless winter. It’s ok to not call for snow. It hurts to do it considering I’m the biggest winter lover here.. but it’s better to be realistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: My agenda? Because I want a warm snowless winter. It’s ok to not call for snow. It hurts to do it considering I’m the biggest winter lover here.. but it’s better to be realistic I think it's obvious most think you are doing the classic reverse psych formula. If it stinks, you were right on the forecast...if it's a good winter, you don't care if you were wrong because you bask in the delight of the heavy snows. But maybe you truly believe this one is gonna be terrible. There's an argument to be made either way...though I don't see anything obviously negative yet at our latitude. Maybe things will start to look worse as we go through the end of this month into November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I think it's obvious most think you are doing the classic reverse psych formula. If it stinks, you were right on the forecast...if it's a good winter, you don't care if you were wrong because you bask in the delight of the heavy snows. But maybe you truly believe this one is gonna be terrible. There's an argument to be made either way...though I don't see anything obviously negative yet at our latitude. Maybe things will start to look worse as we go through the end of this month into November. I’m honestly pessimistic. I’ve laid out why . I hope I’m completely off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’m honestly pessimistic. I’ve laid out why . I hope I’m completely off How do you think this weak to moderate nina differs from the ones that didn't kill us with the Pac jet? Not trying to be argumentative...just picking your brain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’m honestly pessimistic. I’ve laid out why . I hope I’m completely off If December has a garbage pattern, we're probably in real trouble, so it probably won't take long to find out. Very few La Ninas had a second half comeback after a bad start....the huge exception seems to be 1955-1956....but the pattern in December actually wasn't bad, we just got pretty unlucky with almost no snow. It was still decently cold...just couldn't get anything going despite the good blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 And are we sure we go moderate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 It would really have to get going for a mod in time for winter effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 45 minutes ago, weathafella said: And are we sure we go moderate? No...though the subsurface is impressive. It will try and ramp up, but it might not be enough in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 3 hours ago, OSUmetstud said: Why are they units so small? Anomalies on the order of hundredths of millimeters? Pretty colors get Kevin everytime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: My agenda? Because I want a warm snowless winter. It’s ok to not call for snow. It hurts to do it considering I’m the biggest winter lover here.. but it’s better to be realistic Nah, be objective thats all. You post anything that supports ratter but neglect the next map that shows the contrary. Its all good, just busting. We know youll win either way. Most have said there are decent signs ahead so Ill trust that until there are glaring signs that say otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: How do you think this weak to moderate nina differs from the ones that didn't kill us with the Pac jet? Not trying to be argumentative...just picking your brain. I just think the one eyed pig is going to be a pain in our sides for large portions of the winter. And maybe a slightly stronger than normal SE ridge pushing zone north. And I could see a drier than normal winter..though that I'm not as confident in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 48 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I just think the one eyed pig is going to be a pain in our sides for large portions of the winter. And maybe a slightly stronger than normal SE ridge pushing zone north. And I could see a drier than normal winter..though that I'm not as confident in Ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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