ORH_wxman Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 Just now, WxBlue said: Can someone help me with NE geography for a second. Where's the Pike region? MA Pike....I-90 across Massachusetts. Goes from BOS to ALB (and then continues across NY State) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 Just now, WxBlue said: Can someone help me with NE geography for a second. Where's the Pike region? I90 is the Pike running mainly west to east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: MA Pike....I-90 across Massachusetts. Goes from BOS to ALB (and then continues across NY State) 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: I90 is the Pike running mainly west to east. Thanks! Not used to seeing interstates by a nickname. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 I'll add the the pike region in the past has frequently been a dividing line in overrunning events. Esp during that 2007-2008 season, but it's happened in some other events too since then...the terrain over western and central MA and the high pressure orientation (frequently N of Maine funneling the arctic air down the coast into E MA) in these events make the pike region kind of the battle ground for the cold air vs the WAA to the southwest, and you'll see the sleet/snow line begin to meet a lot of resistance in that zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 Just now, WxBlue said: Thanks! Not used to seeing interstates by a nickname. Think rotary, set of lights, and PTO vs PTA and you get the MA vibe. The saying goes turn signals are optional equipment in MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 15 minutes ago, weathafella said: Think rotary, set of lights, and PTO vs PTA and you get the MA vibe. The saying goes turn signals are optional equipment in MA. The technical term is "blinkah" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 Classic T-blizz in meh mode already. How one can specifically forecast a lousy winter in a specific region is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 07-08 tailed off a lot in Feb and Mar here, but Dec-Jan were fun. Nothing like spending 8.5 hrs in your car on 12/13/07. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 41 minutes ago, WxBlue said: Thanks! Not used to seeing interstates by a nickname. And when they are, be prepared to pay - NY Thruway, Mass Pike, Jersey Turnpike, Maine Turnpike, etc. - at least in the Northeast. 07-08 tailed off a lot in Feb and Mar here, but Dec-Jan were fun. Nothing like spending 8.5 hrs in your car on 12/13/07. Farther north (MBY) Feb was the most active month, with 8 storms 3-9", including 4 in 6 days 5th-10th, worth 22.7", month total of 46.5". March I'll agree, as the one big event (3/1) kind of fizzled here, but we still finished with slightly AN snowfall and temps -2.8 to hold the pack reasonably well, with 34" OG on April 1. It just didn't compare well with the 120" in DJF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 1 minute ago, tamarack said: And when they are, be prepared to pay - NY Thruway, Mass Pike, Jersey Turnpike, Maine Turnpike, etc. - at least in the Northeast. Even the Spaulding Turnpike... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 07-08 tailed off a lot in Feb and Mar here, but Dec-Jan were fun. Nothing like spending 8.5 hrs in your car on 12/13/07. January's torch sucked...wiped out over 20" of high water content pack here...but we quickly regained it back in the good 1/14/08 event. That winter was so active which made it fun. Always something to track it seemed like. Im wondering if this year has more ridging out west...still a lot of warm water in the PDO region. Obviously that can get wiped out quickly but it could help a little bit. The Niña won't be as strong as 07-08 either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Classic T-blizz in meh mode already. How one can specifically forecast a lousy winter in a specific region is impressive. I find the KURO generally correlates negatively with future conditions, so I'm reasonably optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 59 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'll add the the pike region in the past has frequently been a dividing line in overrunning events. Esp during that 2007-2008 season, but it's happened in some other events too since then...the terrain over western and central MA and the high pressure orientation (frequently N of Maine funneling the arctic air down the coast into E MA) in these events make the pike region kind of the battle ground for the cold air vs the WAA to the southwest, and you'll see the sleet/snow line begin to meet a lot of resistance in that zone. Sounds like I-85 from Atlanta to Richmond. Great information as usual! Definitely something to watch out for this winter with a possible La Nina-like gradient that could set up this year. 20 minutes ago, tamarack said: And when they are, be prepared to pay - NY Thruway, Mass Pike, Jersey Turnpike, Maine Turnpike, etc. - at least in the Northeast. I had to get creative driving between NC and NH to get around big cities and to avoid toll fees. Made a mistake using I-87 in NY once while experimenting. Never again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 23 minutes ago, weathafella said: Even the Spaulding Turnpike... Everett Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 59 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: January's torch sucked...wiped out over 20" of high water content pack here...but we quickly regained it back in the good 1/14/08 event. That winter was so active which made it fun. Always something to track it seemed like. Im wondering if this year has more ridging out west...still a lot of warm water in the PDO region. Obviously that can get wiped out quickly but it could help a little bit. The Niña won't be as strong as 07-08 either. Yum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 hm, NIC has the NH snow/ice at almost dead nuts on the 10-year mean ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: January's torch sucked...wiped out over 20" of high water content pack here...but we quickly regained it back in the good 1/14/08 event. That winter was so active which made it fun. Always something to track it seemed like. Im wondering if this year has more ridging out west...still a lot of warm water in the PDO region. Obviously that can get wiped out quickly but it could help a little bit. The Niña won't be as strong as 07-08 either. Yes. This is why the gradient should be south of that year...not north. Nevermind any blocking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 Seems like everyone thinks an avg to above season is in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Seems like everyone thinks an avg to above season is in the cards. Well we have a couple things going for us....no very strong ENSO....having a strong ENSO event typically eliminates huge seasons for us. (except parts of far NNE/mountains who can sometimes still pull a blockbuster) Second, I think the -QBO and the more east based nature of the ENSO event as well as the pretty muted PDO signal could help with a bit more ridging in the west...more akin to 2000-2001 than a 2007-2008 style pattern. Obviously we could still completely lay a turd this winter...that's the beauty of the weather....we don't actually know whats going to happen. We can just make educated guesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Well we have a couple things going for us....no very strong ENSO....having a strong ENSO event typically eliminates huge seasons for us. (except parts of far NNE/mountains who can sometimes still pull a blockbuster) Second, I think the -QBO and the more east based nature of the ENSO event as well as the pretty muted PDO signal could help with a bit more ridging in the west...more akin to 2000-2001 than a 2007-2008 style pattern. Obviously we could still completely lay a turd this winter...that's the beauty of the weather....we don't actually know whats going to happen. We can just make educated guesses. I would agree as well. But as you said...purely a guess really. I guess the moral of the story is that I don't see a glaring reason to cancel winter...but weather can always be humbling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 Yea, I like the vibe from my sources and the new farmers almanac seals it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 Sorry those west and south of red line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 I know nothing about 00-01 or 07-08 but in terms of the total snowfall they both look like good seasons. The former with about 15 in above average, and the latter about average. It'll be interesting to see how much the polar vortex is disturbed this winter with the easterly QBO. Something to watch closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 Pattern change late October is coming, ridge west trough east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 31 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said: I know nothing about 00-01 or 07-08 but in terms of the total snowfall they both look like good seasons. The former with about 15 in above average, and the latter about average. It'll be interesting to see how much the polar vortex is disturbed this winter with the easterly QBO. Something to watch closely. 07-08 was huge in Dover NH. Not sure if you're looking at a local coop that gave you the impression of "average", but be very careful..some of them are unusable for snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 27 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said: I know nothing about 00-01 or 07-08 but in terms of the total snowfall they both look like good seasons. The former with about 15 in above average, and the latter about average. It'll be interesting to see how much the polar vortex is disturbed this winter with the easterly QBO. Something to watch closely. 2000-01 was a fun winter in Albany... I really liked the 12/30 event which gave 12.6"...right in the holiday week and we had some solid snows in February and then the bigger event March 5-6. That winter was active and festive in the snow department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 On a podcast I listen to Tim Kelly opined colder and snowier for us than average Did not really go into detail though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Sorry those west and south of red line. I know you are busting on Kev, but I'm thinking that line may be closer to SW CT/NYC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Sorry those west and south of red line. TauntonFlizzard rejoice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 56 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: TauntonFlizzard rejoice. Looks like I’m good to go. Big winter incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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