USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 2014 Buffalo had record Lake Effect snow events, November 2014 was especially dangerous. Could we have a winter like 2014-2015 again? Teleconnections support a storm with rain at the coast and snow inland sometime early November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 James what teleconnections are you referring to that would bring snow in early November? To all - is there anything to the notion that all of these tropical systems passing to our northeast are making north atlantic ridging more likely going forward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 The teleconnections haven't changed much since yesterday, they all show a rather negative PNA/Positive AO and Positive NAO present currently until the end of the month of October, GFS shows a pattern changing storm entering our region sometime in the next 12 days followed by an ocean low that could bring rain to me and snow inland towards day 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We kind of had one in 2014...day before Thanksgiving. A lot of sleet in that one in our area. yup i remember that well, actually flipped to rain / pl mix IIRC in metro-west that evening. Underachieved imby I think with an earlier flip to sleet. at the time was working doing snow removal for some extra cash while in grad school. Was a nightmare once it cooled off below freezing and everything froze up after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 9, 2017 Share Posted October 9, 2017 Anyone believing what the CFS is showing in terms of the scale of the oncoming La Nina? It seems to be an outlier on the strong side. Regardless, it's in line with the earlier posted Euro seasonal model in terms of the location of its precip anomalies. Looks decently wet in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 2 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: The teleconnections haven't changed much since yesterday, they all show a rather negative PNA/Positive AO and Positive NAO present currently until the end of the month of October, GFS shows a pattern changing storm entering our region sometime in the next 12 days followed by an ocean low that could bring rain to me and snow inland towards day 16. So 12 days from today is October 21 but you are saying teleconnections show no pattern change til end of month? Something is off with the match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 2 hours ago, mahk_webstah said: James what teleconnections are you referring to that would bring snow in early November? To all - is there anything to the notion that all of these tropical systems passing to our northeast are making north atlantic ridging more likely going forward? Its brought a lot of swamp with it but from what I’ve read...there isn’t much coorleation between n atl hurricanes and subsequent ridging for the following winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 5 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: It wasn’t good in SNE. It was congrats Pike north and really NH border north 25 inches of snow in Dec, white Christmas, snow on the ground from Dec 2 to mid Feb, a week of snowless then snow until first week of March, 56 inches, I would hit that again in a heartbeat. A half degree here or there and it would have been a 70 inch winter easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 25 inches of snow in Dec, white Christmas, snow on the ground from Dec 2 to mid Feb, a week of snowless then snow until first week of March, 56 inches, I would hit that again in a heartbeat. A half degree here or there and it would have been a 70 inch winter easy. I don’t disagree with that as a general analog year.. but I think it’s displaced another 50 -75 miles north of where it was that year I don’t recall that being a good winter for CT at all. Your description sounds great and I don’t recall it like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I don’t disagree with that as a general analog year.. but I think it’s displaced another 50 -75 miles north of where it was that year I don’t recall that being a good winter for CT at all. Your description sounds great and I don’t recall it like that December was awesome, Jan ok Feb sucked cept for a one week period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 43 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: December was awesome, Jan ok Feb sucked cept for a one week period If it’s the correct winter I’m thinking of 75% of my snow fell in one week in Feb where it snowed every day that week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 53 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I don’t disagree with that as a general analog year.. but I think it’s displaced another 50 -75 miles north of where it was that year I don’t recall that being a good winter for CT at all. Your description sounds great and I don’t recall it like that You are thinking strong la nina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 Ahh I saw will post the Eurasian snow cover. better to have it on the plus side I guess. i need to look at more than 2m temps on the euro seasonal. I'll take a look tomorrow when I get in, but that looks decent verbatim. Even down here....give me QPF and I can work with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 11 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah those look pretty decent for New England over to GL. Looks like plenty of overrunning events and prob some clipper/redeveloper tracks. Looks Miller B-east/SWFE in December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: 25 inches of snow in Dec, white Christmas, snow on the ground from Dec 2 to mid Feb, a week of snowless then snow until first week of March, 56 inches, I would hit that again in a heartbeat. A half degree here or there and it would have been a 70 inch winter easy. 73" here that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: If it’s the correct winter I’m thinking of 75% of my snow fell in one week in Feb where it snowed every day that week No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 We're moving into mid October. This Nina looks tepid so far. Given the roughly 3 month lag to effect sensible wx, it would seem strong and maybe even moderate could be pretty unlikely in their effects for the upcoming winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 24 minutes ago, weathafella said: We're moving into mid October. This Nina looks tepid so far. Given the roughly 3 month lag to effect sensible wx, it would seem strong and maybe even moderate could be pretty unlikely in their effects for the upcoming winter. Yea. I'm at a loss for why any seasonal gradient would set up north of 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 Kevin is thinking massive Ak trough will blowtorch us, especially the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 Euro seasonals would imply a quick flip to winter. Not sure I buy that, but it is probably the bias the comes with a fall that is extremely warm, where I was spending a hot day on the beach less than 2 weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 27 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Euro seasonals would imply a quick flip to winter. Not sure I buy that, but it is probably the bias the comes with a fall that is extremely warm, where I was spending a hot day on the beach less than 2 weeks ago. The Euro weeklies torch us right into November. So it would certainly be quite the switch. Some impressive troughing in the west on the latest run of the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 The Pacific pattern will slowly change as the forcing moves east. So I would't be shocked if early November is a little cooler than what is shown. That massive black hole in AK will move out. Tons of cold water in the subsurface, so Nina is full on in terms of SSTs. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Kevin is thinking massive Ak trough will blowtorch us, especially the east. I don’t see that moving out for any long duration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: I don’t see that moving out for any long duration It could happen. 2011-12 was a middling Nina. But the odds are against it with all the other atmosphere dynamics. If we get into November-say the 10th-and there's no end in sight to the AK hole-be afraid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Kevin is thinking massive Ak trough will blowtorch us, especially the east. His track record is not that great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 2 hours ago, LoveSN+ said: The Euro weeklies torch us right into November. So it would certainly be quite the switch. Some impressive troughing in the west on the latest run of the EPS. 2007 had a fast flip here about the 2nd week of November. It had been a massive torch that fall until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 07-08 I thought featured a pretty meh season here. Im not overly optimistic for the pike region south this winter. Lots of slop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 2007 had a fast flip here about the 2nd week of November. It had been a massive torch that fall until then. Boston temp average as of yesterday 2017 versus 2007 since Sept 1 2017-10-09 66.7 0 - 2007-10-09 66.7 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 48 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: 07-08 I thought featured a pretty meh season here. Im not overly optimistic for the pike region south this winter. Lots of slop Can someone help me with NE geography for a second. Where's the Pike region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: 07-08 I thought featured a pretty meh season here. Im not overly optimistic for the pike region south this winter. Lots of slop You guys had a bad one that year. MBY just 40 miles north of you was good. It was a tight gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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