Typhoon Tip Posted October 5, 2017 Share Posted October 5, 2017 welp ... this calculates out to be the last year in the payment plan for the Feb 2015 loan ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Hopefully the CFS is right. Looks a little BN and wet from DJFM. Seems to have more of an east based Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Hopefully the CFS is right. Looks a little BN and wet from DJFM. Seems to have more of an east based Nina. How consistent has it been? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 And hopefully the cansips are wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 17 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Rarer than I thought actually...hard to find big winters in NNE while SNE had a total ratter. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49653-countdown-to-winter-2017-2018-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4638692 Yeah that makes sense because of the proximity. I'd assume there are more years where north of NNE (Canada) had a great winter while SNE struggled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 16 hours ago, tamarack said: I think 1972-73 was headed in that direction, but it died in NNE after a very snowy Dec, while remaining awful farther south. Yeah esp for the coast of SNE...December 1972 was fine in interior SNE though. ORH had 6.1" in Nov 1972 and 13.8" in Dec 1972...Jan '73 actually had 17.9" so they were slightly above average on the season heading into February during an El Nino which is usually a great spot to be...but it completely fell flat on its face in Feb/Mar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah esp for the coast of SNE...December 1972 was fine in interior SNE though. ORH had 6.1" in Nov 1972 and 13.8" in Dec 1972...Jan '73 actually had 17.9" so they were slightly above average on the season heading into February during an El Nino which is usually a great spot to be...but it completely fell flat on its face in Feb/Mar That was not the best time for a snow weenie to move to Maine. We got the nice 7.6" storm of 1/29/73 less than a week after we arrived, but it was not until nearly 3 years later (12/18/75) that our downtown BGR apartment had even one 8"+ storm in DJFM. (We did get 3 storms 8"+ in the shoulder seasons, 4/74, 11/74, and a sleety foot in 4/75.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah esp for the coast of SNE...December 1972 was fine in interior SNE though. ORH had 6.1" in Nov 1972 and 13.8" in Dec 1972...Jan '73 actually had 17.9" so they were slightly above average on the season heading into February during an El Nino which is usually a great spot to be...but it completely fell flat on its face in Feb/Mar Nov 72.. the time we were born. My mom told me there was snow OTG in NNJ late that month. Did they get a good snowfall too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Nov 72.. the time we were born. My mom told me there was snow OTG in NNJ late that month. Did they get a good snowfall too? Yeah there was...Nov '72 was epically cold. Probably tricked everyone into thinking it would be a harsh, cold/snowy winter. Joke's on them. This winter is gonna be an interesting one to track I think. We once again have very rapid snow cover growth in Siberia early on...and the SSTs in the N PAC are not really extreme -PDO, so I'm wondering if we get a bit more western ridging than typical in a La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 1 hour ago, dryslot said: And hopefully the cansips are wrong. Isn't that always showing a blow torch? It did last year too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Isn't that always showing a blow torch? It did last year too. It did but CFS did as well, I don't place much stock in either one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Just now, dryslot said: It did but CFS did as well. That 500 look on the cips looks pretty classic Nina climo too me. There's enough riding into ak to get colder air dumping into canada and sliding east southeast. March looks bad there. And there is a position Ao and Nap there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 Jan and Feb and march on cfs look good to great. Don't use 2 m on those models lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: How consistent has it been? It seems to be always warm. So I was pleasantly surprised to see that lol. I can't comment on the consistency. But I think it hasn't been on the torch train so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Yeah the CFS Monthly looks pretty good for cold and precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 However it's the CFS which does not have the best skill scores.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Just moved out to Albany this summer for grad school. Hoping to see my earliest flakes ever and break my old snow total. Shouldn't be too much to ask for unless we have a dead ratter this year. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 1 hour ago, LoveSN+ said: Just moved out to Albany this summer for grad school. Hoping to see my earliest flakes ever and break my old snow total. Shouldn't be too much to ask for unless we have a dead ratter this year. Cheers! Where are you now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Hmm 4 Atlantic seasons with more than 46.5 hurricane days through 10/7 were 1893, 1926, 1933, 1995. https://isenseproject.org/visualizations/1100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 All of those years featured big snowfall totals in Dec Boston ave was over 20 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Where are you now? I'm in Albany. I know it's not really New England but the upstate NY thread isn't very active and I'm close to New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 1 minute ago, LoveSN+ said: I'm in Albany. I know it's not really New England but the upstate NY thread isn't very active and I'm close to New England. And before? Albany should do well this year I think but they do suffer from a lot of shadowing from mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 I was in Urbana-Champaign for my B.S. at the University of Illinois. Only got about 20 inches of snow the past two years there. I've heard of a couple mesoscale features, such as the downslope, that effect snowfall in Albany in the winter. Another one is the effect of the Hudson River valley. It can channel colder air into the valley and some claim it makes for enhanced bands. Orographics really can play a big role in jackpot zones up here, so it will be something I'll have to get used to. Central Illinois is as flat as a table top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 55 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said: I was in Urbana-Champaign for my B.S. at the University of Illinois. Only got about 20 inches of snow the past two years there. I've heard of a couple mesoscale features, such as the downslope, that effect snowfall in Albany in the winter. Another one is the effect of the Hudson River valley. It can channel colder air into the valley and some claim it makes for enhanced bands. Orographics really can play a big role in jackpot zones up here, so it will be something I'll have to get used to. Central Illinois is as flat as a table top. Mohawk-Hudson convergence I think is what you are describing , doesn't seem to happen a ton, but pretty cool meso feature. Some on here are probably more familiar with that feature than me. I recall it a few times last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said: Mohawk-Hudson convergence I think is what you are describing , doesn't seem to happen a ton, but pretty cool meso feature. Some on here are probably more familiar with that feature than me. I recall it a few times last winter. Ah yes, this is absolutely correct. Still getting familiar with the local geography and effects on weather around here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Albany is def a much better spot for snow than where you came from...though there will be times you get frustrated at downslope there. But it's a pretty solid snow climo overall. They average a bit over 60" per season. We have regular posters from near ALB that post here in our forum. They often share the same snow events. In years with a lot of clippers and overrunning they will be very similar in a lot of events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Probably gonna drive over to Lake Ontario area when we get a nice cold air dome coming down. Might try and go up into the Adirondacks when the first flakes are supposed to fly as well. Like many on here, snow is my favorite type of sensible weather and I'm excited to be living in the northeast for the first time in my life, simply for the snow prospects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said: Probably gonna drive over to Lake Ontario area when we get a nice cold air dome coming down. Might try and go up into the Adirondacks when the first flakes are supposed to fly as well. Like many on here, snow is my favorite type of sensible weather and I'm excited to be living in the northeast for the first time in my life, simply for the snow prospects. Places like up around Saranac Lake and the tug hill should see their first flakes within the next 2-3 weeks. Usually once we get a good upper level low with 850 temps below about -5 or -6C you'll see them get orographic flakes and maybe some LES. If it's a really warm October though then once in a while you'll have to wait until November up there. But even right in ALB, you will see first flakes in October almost half the time. (41 out of the past 85 years). Last year they actually had accumulating snow in October...10/27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 1 hour ago, LoveSN+ said: Ah yes, this is absolutely correct. Still getting familiar with the local geography and effects on weather around here! I grew up around Albany and you'll often see the Hudson Valley convergence set up on departing nor'easters when the winds go northerly with residual moisture present. The best is if you can get it associated with a deformation band as it'll just keep snowing longer than other areas. I've also seen it enhance snow squalls coming down the Mohawk Valley. Really the only time orographics screw Albany, is with a long duration easterly flow event. Like a cut-off low that just keeps a due easterly fetch. You'll see like dim sun through the clouds while the east slopes of the Catskills get 12"+. As soon as it goes NEly though the precip will ramp back up. Although the Catskills are SW of ALB, I never really saw any negative downsloping experiences from that direction. It's almost all easterly flow where you see it. I think I'm SW flow events, the lift is usually WAA aloft and orographics don't have as much of an impact in those overrunning situations. They are pretty evenly distributed regardless of terrain. It's the same up here in Northern VT where everything is orographically influenced it seems. SWFE from mid-level WAA is very evenly distributed and doesn't usually feature any pronounced orographic max/mins in precip totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 It's amazing that as soon as fall rolls around the pattern we've been in all summer, i.e. trough in the east and ridge in the west, decides to flip. Don't see much sign of that changing in the 8-14 day either, after looking at the EPS and GEFS. I'm not really worried about winter under performing, but it makes you wonder if the seasons are developing some sort of time lag compared to the past few decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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